While Gartman, the former publisher of the influential “The Gartman Letter,” in the past said he was wrong about a bear market in 2021, when the S&P index rose about 27%, his forecast for 2022 remains foreboding.
“It could go quite a good deal farther to the downside,” he said. “The use of margin has been declining. That’s always one of the signs of a top in the market. Be careful. I think it goes down another 5%-10% from here. At least. Maybe more. ”
Gartman has long been calling for a bear market, and predicted the catalyst would be a hawkish Federal Reserve regime of higher interest rates to combat the fastest inflation since the 1980s.
“I’ve been very consistent about that fact and actually had the university reduce the size of its portfolio 12% to 15% on Dec. 31 of last year,” he said. The Fed is widely anticipated to raise the overnight lending rate by 50 basis points next month, after a quarter-point increase earlier this year.
Gartman in January said stocks could face a decline of as much as 15% in 2022. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is down 11% so far this year.