In June 2005, following Shabir Shaik’s conviction, Jacob Zuma was relieved of his duties as South Africa’s deputy president. Months later, Zuma was charged with rape and he voluntarily stepped aside from participating in the ANC’s leadership structures.

Zuma, who was acquitted of the rape charge and appeared in court only for the arms deal-related corruption charges after he stepped down as president, used his legal struggles to further his populist appeal ahead of the ANC’s 2007 Polokwane conference.

He depicted himself as a victim of a politically motivated conspiracy driven by the elite to sideline a leader of the masses.

Ace Magashule and his supporters are trying to employ a similar strategy after a warrant of arrest was issued this week for the ANC secretary-general. He will appear in court on Friday on corruption charges related to a R255-million Free State asbestos audit contract signed while he was premier.

“He has already started intimating exactly that, that there’s selective prosecutions. He’s obviously borrowing from JZ’s experience,” said Professor Mcebisi Ndletyana from the University of Johannesburg’s Department of Politics and International Relations.

Magashule and the radical economic transformation (RET) faction of the ANC have been seen as posing a significant challenge to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s efforts to assert his leadership and implement reforms in the party and government.

Questioned about the arrest warrant on Wednesday, Magashule told News24, “The enemy is intending to demoralise us and we must refuse to be demoralised. We must refuse for lies to fly.”

ANC Free State spokesperson Thabo Meeko said the party would not tolerate corruption, but would rise to defend a leader under attack.

Ekurhuleni mayor and ANC regional chairperson Mzwandile Masina tweeted, “A moment for civil unrest is now, we can’t allow abuse of State institutions to further political ends. This is wrong, those elected must implement our resolutions and arrest white masters for us to believe they are genuine.”

Masina, who has suggested the ANC and authorities look into Ramaphosa’s 2017 campaign finances, later deleted that tweet, but in another said, “You can arrest Magashule for all his sins, but not his ideas of Radical Economic Transformation.”

In a statement, Umkhonto we Sizwe Military Veterans Association (MKMVA) spokesperson Carl Niehaus warned against “the selective use of corruption charges and the law enforcement agencies as tools for factional targeting and political infighting”.

“All Roads Lead to Mangaung on Friday,” Niehaus tweeted ahead of Magashule’s appearance in the Bloemfontein Magistrates’ Court.

ANC Deputy Secretary-General Jessie Duarte said Magashule did not want supporters to march at his trial or wear T-shirts or carry placards featuring his name. She said party members and leaders could attend as individuals.

Dr Ina Gouws, from the University of the Free State’s Department of Political Studies and Governance, questioned Magashule’s supposed claim that he doesn’t want supporters to gather when he appears in court.

“I think he knows it’ll likely have exactly the opposite effect,” she said.

While Magashule and his supporters appear to be employing a strategy from Zuma’s playbook, its effectiveness will depend on the strength of the National Prosecuting Authority’s (NPA) case.

The Hawks and the NPA, which have made a string of high-profile arrests recently, have repeatedly stated that they will only pursue cases they believe have a strong chance of success.

While he was Free State premier, Magashule is suspected of having instructed his assistant to tell Igo Mpambani, whose company Diamond Hill Trading 74 along with Edwin Sodi’s Blackhead Consulting formed the joint venture that won the R255-million asbestos deal, to make payments to third parties.

While Zuma used his court cases to build support, he was able to point to allegations of bias that emerged in the “spy tapes”, the NPA’s indecision on whether to proceed with charges and the Nicholson judgment.

“His political claim of victimisation was legitimised by a series of prosecutors and judges that validated his claims,” said Dr Sithembile Mbete from the University of Pretoria’s Department of Political Sciences.

On the charges against Magashule, she said, “It all now depends on how strong the NPA’s case actually is.”

Magashule’s case seems more clear-cut than Zuma’s while his support is less coherent and claims of victimisation less clear.

While he was Free State premier, Magashule is suspected of having instructed his assistant to tell Igo Mpambani, whose company Diamond Hill Trading 74 along with Edwin Sodi’s Blackhead Consulting formed the joint venture that won the R255-million asbestos deal, to make payments to third parties.

Sodi and six other accused were arrested in October. On Wednesday, their case was postponed to 19 February 2021.

Ndletyana said Magashule’s supporters can claim that Ramaphosa’s campaign finances should also be investigated and that the secretary-general is being targeted for challenging “white minority capital”.

Ndletyana called the arguments “weak”.

He said Ramaphosa’s detractors have failed to provide concrete claims against the president or the NPA, which they claim is selectively prosecuting cases for political purposes.

“They can’t deliver a serious blow because they don’t have much,” said Ndletyana.

“They don’t have anything concrete so they’re trying all sorts of things.”

Ndletyana said Magashule might be using Zuma’s tactics but, “The success of that strategy is very doubtful this time around.”

Mbete said the RET faction of the ANC that seems to be behind Magashule is not a clear or cohesive group and its end-goal within the party is uncertain. When Zuma claimed he was a victim during his legal struggles, he was ANC deputy president and had a claim on party leadership.

Those rallying behind Magashule can’t claim the same right to leadership and the faction as yet hasn’t rallied behind a clear challenger to Ramaphosa at the ANC’s 2022 elective conference, where the president, if he contests, will enjoy the benefits of incumbency after his first term.

Mbete said of Magashule’s strategy: “It’s not clear what the purpose of that would be other than delegitimising President Cyril Ramaphosa and his leadership.”

Ramaphosa’s opponents may want to challenge him at next year’s ANC national general council, but as the president’s precarious hold on the party is likely to survive at least until the ANC’s 2022 elections, Magashule and his allies can continue to undermine Ramaphosa’s leadership while planning a campaign around a possible successor. DM