Business Maverick

Business Maverick

Treasury Curve Steepens on Powell’s Latest Bond-Buying Signal

The U.S. Treasury building stands in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, May 20, 2020. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he plans to use all of the $500 billion that Congress provided to help the economy through direct lending from his agency and by backstopping Federal Reserve lending programs. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

The Treasury yield curve steepened slightly Wednesday after the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who signalled that it will keep rates near zero for at least three years, stopped short of tweaking bond purchases as some had expected.

Ten- and 30-year yields briefly spiked to session highs of 0.70% and 1.46%, respectively, during a press conference Powell held after the central bank’s latest policy decision. That caused the spread between 5- and 30-year yields, to widen slightly.

The central bank repeated it will continue buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities “at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning.” In response to a question about the Fed’s asset-purchase program and guidance, Powell said the present stance is “appropriate,” but stressed officials are prepared to adjust it if needed, without getting into specifics.

Some traders have been expecting a signal regarding plans to target longer maturities in its purchases. As a result, long-bond yields rose and 30-year bonds underperformed interest-rate swaps, with the spread between the two tightening over one basis point.

Powell “did emphasize that purchases will continue at ‘at least’ the current pace, and noted that they could change the composition,” said Tom Garretson, a senior portfolio strategist at RBC Wealth Management. “Perhaps there was some chance that the market was looking for the pivot toward longer-dated Treasury purchases,” and the lack of that is one factor “driving modest curve steepening.”

Speed Limit

“So as long as the Fed is signaling that it’s at least thinking about thinking about doing more, that’s likely to be sufficient for markets, and will probably place a speed limit on further yield-curve steepening,” he said.

Market-based measures of inflation expectations also rose marginally, signaling some traders may be slightly more optimistic about the Fed’s chances of achieving its inflation goals.

“Curve steepening will continue” and “breakevens will continue to move higher,” said Nick Maroutsos, a money manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

Gallery

Comments - Please in order to comment.

Please peer review 3 community comments before your comment can be posted

X

This article is free to read.

Sign up for free or sign in to continue reading.

Unlike our competitors, we don’t force you to pay to read the news but we do need your email address to make your experience better.


Nearly there! Create a password to finish signing up with us:

Please enter your password or get a sign in link if you’ve forgotten

Open Sesame! Thanks for signing up.

We would like our readers to start paying for Daily Maverick...

…but we are not going to force you to. Over 10 million users come to us each month for the news. We have not put it behind a paywall because the truth should not be a luxury.

Instead we ask our readers who can afford to contribute, even a small amount each month, to do so.

If you appreciate it and want to see us keep going then please consider contributing whatever you can.

Support Daily Maverick→
Payment options

Premier Debate: Gauten Edition Banner

Join the Gauteng Premier Debate.

On 9 May 2024, The Forum in Bryanston will transform into a battleground for visions, solutions and, dare we say, some spicy debates as we launch the inaugural Daily Maverick Debates series.

We’re talking about the top premier candidates from Gauteng debating as they battle it out for your attention and, ultimately, your vote.

Daily Maverick Elections Toolbox

Feeling powerless in politics?

Equip yourself with the tools you need for an informed decision this election. Get the Elections Toolbox with shareable party manifesto guide.