On Sunday night, during a teleconference with journalists, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni said that his conversation with President Cyril Ramaphosa about the Moodys downgrade led to his “hallelujah” moment. He claimed Ramaphosa told him that this was the moment that reform now needed to be implemented. Mboweni, always confident, also said: “And I know we are going to succeed.”

For years there have been cries for reform, from rating agencies, banks, business organisations, and many other influential groups. It simply did not happen. 

Considering the urgent need for this reform, and that there are more young people out of work than with jobs, it should not be forgotten why this reform has not happened. To oversimplify, there has been a “political lock” on reform. So broad is the economic church of the ANC that it has simply been impossible to actually agree on any reform at all.

In recent times there has only been one moment when it appeared that a package of reforms had been agreed to. At the ANC’s 2012 Mangaung Conference, delegates adopted, by acclamation, the National Development Plan. The next eight years could be almost completely defined by the lack of implementation. And, as is well known, then-president Jacob Zuma’s ideas around economic development were slightly more tightly focused. 

So then, what has changed?

The most obvious answer is that the scale of the crisis has simply deepened dramatically. While this has happened over time, the conjunction of the Covid-19 crisis and Moody’s decision provides a useful focal point. 

It is also likely that when it comes to implementing painful economic reforms, they have to be driven by a small and determined group of people. Because we are in a democracy, and because retrenchments cause deep pain in any society, it is hard to make real changes. Organised groups such as unions have large constituencies that feel the best way to protect their interests is to put obstacles in the way. Also, there’s a strong element of reality to be considered: elections still have to be won, even during the period of reform. 

In order to make the process a success, a small group of people have to make this happen, without appealing to large broad-based constituencies. It may be, perhaps, that there is now that group of determined people in the South African government.

It is also the case that the union movement is probably weaker than it has been at any time since 1994. This is not only the case in terms of numbers (union membership has dropped dramatically in the last 10 years) but also in terms of public opinion. Just last week on SAfm, one union leader tried to justify the claim that his members should get an increase during a recession in the middle of a national disaster. Considering the crisis we are in, this kind of claim is likely to make unions very, very unpopular.

One of the biggest tactics likely to be used by those in favour of reform is to simply ask, what other options are there? 

It is more than clear that the interventions that have been used up until now have had no discernible effect. Making claims based on the past obviously has important moral legitimacy. But they have not been able to alleviate poverty. And those who argue on this basis will have to point to other examples where focusing on the past has led to economic growth. Those who argue in favour of reform will point to places like South Korea, Vietnam, Ethiopia, or many other countries that have experienced incredible injustices in recent memory, and yet have managed to build their economies by focusing on the future. 

At the same time, it is important not to forget the obvious. Because so much attention is focused on the situation around the Covid-19 virus, and the devastation it is likely to cause, things that were fantasy just a few weeks ago are now serious economic policy. 

We now live in a world where the US, which has a president from a party that fights against big government, now literally giving people money just to help them survive while stimulating the economy. Our Reserve Bank is buying bonds on the secondary market in an attempt to push cash into the South African economy. That’s after doing the previously unthinkable and cutting interest rates by a hundred basis points.

Of course, it goes without saying that Ramaphosa perhaps has more power now, and for this instant, than almost any presidents before him. Because of the wartime nature of this crisis, his position appears to be unassailable.

And his critics, people like Ace Magashule and others, have had no choice but to follow his leadership. And, more importantly, to give the full appearance of following his leadership. All of this means that it may now be harder for his critics in the ANC to move against him. Even Cosatu, which should be completely opposed to much of what he has said already, might find it difficult to stop supporting Ramaphosa. And of course, those in the ANC who were closely tied to Zuma may soon find that their legal troubles are higher on their personal agenda than just political power.

However, it is also possible that any reform, no matter how it is done, can be used as a point of rebellion. Magashule and others could return to the ANC branches to continue their move against Ramaphosa. The problem, of course, is that they might be going against public sentiment. Before the Covid-19 crisis, Ramaphosa’s approval rating was above 60%. It may well now be higher, and could rise higher still as this goes on. 

What must be true is that in the next few months there will be more awful evidence of the damage wrought on our economy. The numbers will show that we are poorer, and the worsening of the lived experience of millions of people will be felt very keenly. This will increase the urgency to do something.

There may have to be a mixture of consultation and sheer bullying involved here. If you had to consult everyone about economic policy, the chances are high that no policy would emerge. It would be full of the contradictions of our unequal society. So instead, determined change with the appearance of consultation may have to be used. 

But time will be running out soon. More and more people are going to lose their jobs, the young and unemployed are only going to feel more and more frustrated, and anger could mount (which will be displayed in the form of “service delivery protests”). 

This means that if anything is going to happen, it will have to happen now. Mboweni might find that when it comes to singing the “Hallelujah” chorus, best it was done quickly. DM