Biden’s stance on Israel could lead to Trump’s re-election

Hamas’ brutal assault on Israel on 7 October last year changed everything – obviously in the Middle East, but also in US domestic politics.

If the 2024 presidential race shapes up, as expected, to be a messianic rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, its effects on the contest will be both fascinating and profound.

On the surface, events in the Middle East seem to play to Trump’s re-election campaign. Within the increasingly right-wing Republican party, the challenge seems to be solely on who can make the most outlandish comments in avowed support of Israel and their ensuing demolition of Gaza.

One Republican congressman, Robert Mast, said that there was simply “no such thing as a Palestinian civilian, just as there was no such thing as a civilian in Nazi Germany” – a statement which is not only incorrect but also morally repugnant.

Former vice president under Trump, Mike Pence, on a visit to Israel this weekend, made a much-publicised show of support by writing a personal message on a bomb that was soon to be dropped on Gaza. This prompted a response by Haaretz journalist, Etan Nechin: “The US is not Israel’s friend, it is its enabler.”

Meanwhile, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, interviewed on Fox TV, made her stance on the conflict clear; Israel should simply “finish them, finish them” in reference to the Palestinians.

As Nechin writes, this war has just become a feeding ground for far-right lunatic PR. They are all openly pandering to the increasingly hardline Republican religious base.

For Joe Biden, however, the conflict puts him in a much trickier situation. He is seemingly damned in his support for Israel, but equally damned if he were to change course.

Alarming polls

In a recent New York Times poll, the fractured views on the conflict among traditionally Democratic voter groups show the continued difficulty Biden faces in holding together the coalition he built in 2020, particularly when it comes to the youth vote.

Voters between 18 and 29, traditionally a heavily Democratic demographic, are especially worrying for Biden. According to the NYT poll, nearly three-quarters of them disapprove of the way he is handling the conflict in Gaza.

Registered voters in this age group say they would vote for  Trump by 49% to 43% — in July, those young voters backed Biden by 10 percentage points.

Overall, registered voters across the US say they favour Trump over Biden in next year’s presidential election by 46% to 44%. Trump’s lead is especially commanding in five out of six key swing states which will decide the contest later this year.

In response to these alarming poll numbers, Biden seems to have changed tack by sounding increasingly frustrated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

At a fundraiser in Washington last month, Biden warned Israel that it was on a dangerous course and must shift its strategy, warning that Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” in Gaza risked leaving the country isolated.

Ironically, however, by sounding critical of Netanyahu while continuing to provide US military and financial support to Israel, the US president risks alienating both the more conservative older Democrats and the youth, who are overwhelmingly more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.

Conditions

It is increasingly clear what Biden should do to resolve this re-election riddle: impose — rather than hint politely at — conditions on US aid to Israel.

This would mean insisting that Netanyahu endorse the two-state solution and take steps to prepare for “day after” talks with a rebooted Palestinian Authority, as opposed to simply deflecting the issue with carpet-bombing.

By promising further support to appease the right in his party, while actively working towards a longer-term solution in the region to placate young Democrats, Biden would put the ball firmly back in Netanyahu’s court.

Two US administrations imposed conditions on American aid to Israel; Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush. The first led to the Camp David agreement that created peace between Egypt and Israel. The second launched the Oslo Accords that Netanyahu spent his entire political career wrecking.

The moral of the story for Biden is that tough love works.

Either way, if Biden does not embrace a radically different stance on the conflict, his re-election is looking increasingly unlikely.

With South Africa leading the charge at the International Court of Justice on the application of Israeli genocide, a Trump administration would have massive implications for where South Africa positions itself on not just this issue, but in geopolitics more broadly.

SA has been drifting away from the US-led Western consensus for some time. With Trump back in the White House, the country would be firmly opposed to SA.

Perhaps this is not a bad thing.

If we do, as a result of Hamas, see a Trump re-election, it will be a cosmic irony of earth-shattering proportions and a further unravelling of the global order with truly dire historical consequences.

At least in this instance, it would help to know who are and are not one’s friends. DM