Hamas’ brutal assault on Israel on 7 October last year changed everything – obviously in the Middle East, but also in US domestic politics.
If the 2024 presidential race shapes up, as expected, to be a messianic rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, its effects on the contest will be both fascinating and profound.
On the surface, events in the Middle East seem to play to Trump’s re-election campaign. Within the increasingly right-wing Republican party, the challenge seems to be solely on who can make the most outlandish comments in avowed support of Israel and their ensuing demolition of Gaza.
One Republican congressman, Robert Mast, said that there was simply “no such thing as a Palestinian civilian, just as there was no such thing as a civilian in Nazi Germany” – a statement which is not only incorrect but also morally repugnant.
Former vice president under Trump, Mike Pence, on a visit to Israel this weekend, made a much-publicised show of support by writing a personal message on a bomb that was soon to be dropped on Gaza. This prompted a response by Haaretz journalist, Etan Nechin: “The US is not Israel’s friend, it is its enabler.”
Meanwhile, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, interviewed on Fox TV, made her stance on the conflict clear; Israel should simply “finish them, finish them” in reference to the Palestinians.
As Nechin writes, this war has just become a feeding ground for far-right lunatic PR. They are all openly pandering to the increasingly hardline Republican religious base.
For Joe Biden, however, the conflict puts him in a much trickier situation. He is seemingly damned in his support for Israel, but equally damned if he were to change course.
Alarming polls
In a recent New York Times poll, the fractured views on the conflict among traditionally Democratic voter groups show the continued difficulty Biden faces in holding together the coalition he built in 2020, particularly when it comes to the youth vote.
Voters between 18 and 29, traditionally a heavily Democratic demographic, are especially worrying for Biden. According to the NYT poll, nearly three-quarters of them disapprove of the way he is handling the conflict in Gaza.
Registered voters in this age group say they would vote for Trump by 49% to 43% — in July, those young voters backed Biden by 10 percentage points.
Overall, registered voters across the US say they favour Trump over Biden in next year’s presidential election by 46% to 44%. Trump’s lead is especially commanding in five out of six key swing states which will decide the contest later this year.
In response to these alarming poll numbers, Biden seems to have changed tack by sounding increasingly frustrated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
At a fundraiser in Washington last month, Biden warned Israel that it was on a dangerous course and must shift its strategy, warning that Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” in Gaza risked leaving the country isolated.
Ironically, however, by sounding critical of Netanyahu while continuing to provide US military and financial support to Israel, the US president risks alienating both the more conservative older Democrats and the youth, who are overwhelmingly more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.
Conditions
It is increasingly clear what Biden should do to resolve this re-election riddle: impose — rather than hint politely at — conditions on US aid to Israel.
This would mean insisting that Netanyahu endorse the two-state solution and take steps to prepare for “day after” talks with a rebooted Palestinian Authority, as opposed to simply deflecting the issue with carpet-bombing.
By promising further support to appease the right in his party, while actively working towards a longer-term solution in the region to placate young Democrats, Biden would put the ball firmly back in Netanyahu’s court.
Two US administrations imposed conditions on American aid to Israel; Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush. The first led to the Camp David agreement that created peace between Egypt and Israel. The second launched the Oslo Accords that Netanyahu spent his entire political career wrecking.
The moral of the story for Biden is that tough love works.
Either way, if Biden does not embrace a radically different stance on the conflict, his re-election is looking increasingly unlikely.
With South Africa leading the charge at the International Court of Justice on the application of Israeli genocide, a Trump administration would have massive implications for where South Africa positions itself on not just this issue, but in geopolitics more broadly.
SA has been drifting away from the US-led Western consensus for some time. With Trump back in the White House, the country would be firmly opposed to SA.
Perhaps this is not a bad thing.
If we do, as a result of Hamas, see a Trump re-election, it will be a cosmic irony of earth-shattering proportions and a further unravelling of the global order with truly dire historical consequences.
At least in this instance, it would help to know who are and are not one’s friends. DM
And who do you suppose is going to remove Hamas in your “rebooted Palestinian Authority”? Do you naively believe for a second Hamas will allow ANYONE to remove them voluntarily?
The two state solution will never work until Hamas and Hezbollah are GONE – they don’t WANT peace or a two state solution, they WANT to commit genocide on Israelis and Jews and, as per their well published and oft repeated mandate to wipe them off the face of the earth
Ben, why are you always so aggressive and antagonistic in your comments on DM? You are really can voice your opinion or disagreement without the attitude you know.
Stating facts is hardly aggressive, those Hamas acolytes accusing everyone of being Zionists for having differing opinions – those are aggressive
Amen!
The first peace offer was to Golda Mier was offered in the 70’s , she rejected it , because it would have meant giving up Gaza and West Bank. So how many wars since and we in the same place .
How many times has Hamas and Palestine refused a two state solution and instead reacted with armed attacks on Israel – at LEAST 5 times
The law of unintended consequences is working.
Hamas had better settle before the Republicans assume power in the USA and Trump is re–elected
Funny, many a person posted such comments about the Taaliban in Afghanistan as well. All that occured was the many American presidents disappearing but the Taaliban is back in power.
Haha.
That not really very funny. A repressive regime taking over anywhere and immediately trampling on women’s rights aught to alarm, not amuse you.
In a strange way Trump would be better for Palestinians , he would take the deal offered by the Saudi’s . He does not give a fig about special interests groups and he would sell it as a win for Republicans and Israel. The one thing Trump cares about is his image . Going down in history as the only person that could solve the intractable Israel/Palestine conflict would be more than enough for his ego. No Israeli PM would dare cross him , and Netanyahu better not be PM because then any deal would be worse for Israel.
Sadly, I think you may be correct.
All politics are local, goes the saying. It’s hard to find a US presidential election that’s ever been won on foreign policy. And it’s more than a stretch to think that the liberal hordes of millennial voters will choose Trump over Biden on the Palestinian question when they know that Trump will be even more animical to the Palestinian cause. Yes, many voters may want Biden to do more to help the Palestinians but if it’s a stark choice between Trump and Biden, they won’t have a difficult time in the booth!
I agree, but many liberal voters who are put off by Biden’s policy of unequivocally supporting Israel may, most likely, stay away from voting thereby giving Trump victory in a closely held election.
In my opinion it would not matter which president gets elected as human rights, humanity, and the UN’s charter to protect those rights are simply thrown out of the window by both presidents trying to serve their own selfish, narrow interest.
Interestingly no mention of RFK Jnr. and the effect he might have of splitting the vote, both left and right. It’s as if he didn’t exist. Wake up!
I actually feel sorry for both Biden, who seems a pretty good president (if a bit old), and Keir Starmer who hopefully will be the next British Prime Minister. Why? Well unfortunately they both have Jewish connections. Two of Biden’s children married Jews, and Starmer’s wife is Jewish and has living in Israel, so both of them must be getting incredible pressure to ignore the disgraceful actions of the Netanyahu – egged on by the facetailed Hasidics – government.
So the two administrations that imposed conditions on aid to Israel ended up being one-term presidents. I’d hate to be walking this tight-rope.
Well balanced. Thanks always for your balanced view Natale
Good article. Bottomline is, the US will always turn to those that fill their pockets, and/or political aspirations. Hypocrites, but always have been, always will be. Money is everything, belief is just a slogan. They can’t even ever get rid of their own discrimination against Black Americans, and what they call “Native Americans”. Deep down, zero difference between Republicans and Democrats. Just different names on a ballot paper
Correct mostly … and have you noticed how the Dow has leapt by about 10% per month for the period the ‘war’ has been going on ? My assumption is that ‘war’ is good for the US economy … so why would it stop supplying arms to Israel or any of its proxies.