The recent DA conference has been hailed as “modern”, and it does seem to have been run with all the slickness of the US political system. After the chaos that we have all seen with ANC conferences, it’s not surprising that the more slick DA operation impressed some people.
But although the DA does have a diverse set of young talent, its leadership remains firmly in white hands.
There is no barrier to white people being given positions of political trust in South Africa. People such as Joe Slovo and Neil Aggett were given important leadership positions by black constituencies. However, Slovo and Aggett had thrown in their lot with the majority and were implacable opponents of white supremacy.
John Steenhuisen and Helen Zille are worlds apart from Slovo and Aggett.
The DA’s top leadership makes the party appear to be as much a narrow ethnic project as the IFP, FF+ or the Patriotic Alliance. And, of course, Zille’s marked turn to the right on racial issues worsens the situation. For as long as this doesn’t change, the DA will be boxed into a narrow electoral space, unable to capitalise on the collapse of the ANC’s credibility.
But all this is well-worn ground. What was interesting about the conference was Steenhuisen’s idea of a “moonshot” – an alliance of conservative parties that could challenge the ANC. A number of commentators, including myself, have long argued that our party politics should, logically, be realigned into three broad camps.
The kleptocrats in the ANC, the EFF, the PA and the ATM logically belong together in one party of corrupt authoritarian nationalists. The liberals in the ANC, the DA, the IFP and ActionSA also make for a logical fit on the right to centre right. The SACP, the trade unions and Abahlali baseMjondolo make an equally logical fit on the left.
However, there has been no toenadering on the left. For as long as the SACP and Cosatu unions remain aligned to the ANC, the independent unions and Abahlali baseMjondolo will have nothing to do with them, and the logjam in left politics will continue.
But there has certainly been plenty of
toenadering among the kleptocratic authoritarian nationalists, with the self-described RET faction of the ANC now working closely with the EFF, along with the ATM, the PA and others. There is now a working alliance.
There has also been some movement on the right to centre right, with the DA and the IFP building bridges in KwaZulu-Natal. ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba’s ego is as big as Zille’s and so the DA and his party haven’t found a sustainable way to work together despite the fact that they are so closely ideologically aligned.
The real logjam in the politics of the right to centre right is that there is no movement towards an alliance between the ANC liberals and the DA. On economic terms they share clear points of mutual interest, but, for the ANC, working with such a very white party has been a bridge too far.
For Steenhuisen’s moonshot at right to centre right unity to have any chance of success it would have to develop enough black support for an alliance with the ANC liberals to become acceptable. In other words, the DA would have to support but not own a new coalition. This would mean embracing black leaders who would not toe the Zille line. In light of past experiences, it seems unlikely that this will be easily achieved.
Of course, how all this plays out will be hugely important to the future of the country if, as widely predicted, the ANC drops below 50% in the election next year and has to choose a coalition partner to remain in power. With the left out of the game, there are only two realistic choices – the kleptocratic bloc or the liberal-conservative bloc. The former is well placed to act in concert; the latter is not.
Whether we like it or not, these are the three forces that will shape our political reality in the short term. None is attractive to anyone on the spectrum of left politics, ranging from socialist to social-democratic. This is quite extraordinary, given the power of the left in South African politics in the 1970s and 1980s.
But, as much as those of us on the left may decry the situation, the most likely outcome of the election is either an alliance between the ANC and kleptocrats outside the party or an alliance between the ANC and the conservatives outside the party.
This is the future that we must prepare for in the short term. DM168
This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R25.
