Every South African I talk to is asking whether the country is “going to the dogs?” Well, what does it mean to “go to the dogs”?
In ancient China, criminals were expelled from the walls of the city and left to live on the rubbish dumps in the outskirts, literally among the dogs that scavenge for food. So, is it likely that increased rolling blackouts and corruption, economic stagnation and general social decay are turning South Africa into a rubbish dump? Will energy, water and food get so scarce, and life so inhumane, that we are left to scavenge like dogs? Can things really get that bad?
If our foreign minister, Naledi Pandor is to be believed, the recent travel warning of the United States to “exercise increased caution in South Africa due to crime and civil unrest” is fear-mongering.
In October 2022, the US described the South African reality as follows:
“Violent crime, such as armed robbery, rape, carjacking, mugging, and smash-and-grab attacks on vehicles, is common. There is a higher risk of violent crime in the central business districts of major cities after dark. Demonstrations, protests, and strikes occur frequently. These can develop quickly without prior notification, often interrupting traffic, transportation, and other services; such events have the potential to turn violent.”
South Africa’s scenario planning community has been looking at the trajectory of South Africa for a long time. The risks have always been clear, and we’ve been tracking them. The Indlulamithi scenarios calls the worst-case future, the Gwara Gwara story, one where “lawfare and disorder” are signs of “growing rage” due to “leeches on the fiscus” who suck the life out of our national wallet. In this scenario, by 2027 we call the International Monetary Fund following a 2026 financial meltdown, partly because there is “no consensus… and a sense of impunity, failed prosecutions” as part of a national “unravelling“ as the “wealthy insulate themselves” using informal convoys in a nation that is nothing more than a “promising mirage”.
It is depressing, but truth be told, we are sleepwalking into the Gwara Gwara scenario. Why? Because those with the power to act won’t and those who feel powerless are becoming restless, and it will be destructive when they act.
Seven steps that must be taken to avert disaster
Too few South Africans are asking, “what can be done to arrest the decline and avert a national disaster?” So, here is my list of what can, and must be done:
- Shuffle the deck in the Union Buildings, not the chairs. President Ramaphosa must reshuffle his cabinet and boot out David Mabuza, Blade Nzimande, Naledi Pandor, Gwede Mantashe, Bheki Cele, Lindiwe Zulu. These people’s impressive credentials date from 1980 and they have nothing to offer the South Africa of 2050.
- Stop this nonsense of playing war-game war-game with Russia and China while Russian weapons kill Africans. As the continent’s biggest arms supplier through state-owned Rosoboronexport, Putin’s cleptocracy sells weapons to Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Angola, Mali, Nigeria and Ethiopia, proudly killing Africans. We can’t preach “silence the guns” at the African Union while playing comrade-comrade with Putin’s henchmen.
- Use the State of Electricity Disaster to do the things we know will stabilise the grid, such as incentivising private provision of large-scale solar PV next to urban centres and accelerate the conversion of coal stations to natural gas.
- Revive the idea of Nedlac and social dialogue, but for talks about action, not talks about talks. When Nelson Mandela created the National Economic Development and Labour Council in 1994 it was to enable government and the business sector, along with labour and communities to forge a pathway, a compact for the future in which all South Africans can flourish. Instead, fat cat politicians in business suits are pretending to create value by eating by themselves, like the last monarch of France King Louis XVI who would let the peasants watch him stuff his face. We need leadership for the common good, not the comrades’ good.
- Jail some corrupt officials. No explanation needed. It is like that card in the game of Monopoly which tells you to “go straight to jail”. You have to sit out the next round of political dice throwing, as you pay your dues to society for stealing from them. So, make some Zondo-themed bedding and let those who made the bed of corruption sleep in it.
- Keep hope alive. Each and every South African will choose whether we allow the self-fulfilling prophecy of national decline to become our story, or not. Hope is the chemotherapy that kills the cancer of fear.
- The most important step, is that in 2024 the ANC’s love affair with the idea of state-led development and interventionist policies must end. Either because they wise up, or because South Africans vote the ANC out of outright power, to provide a counter-balance against the ill-conceived policies of elitist BB-BBE, land expropriation without compensation and the mooted nationalisation of the South African Reserve Bank. The reality is that South Africa will not attract the investment we desperately need if we keep telling people we will steal their stuff.
Finally, I have a message for the President of South Africa:
Sir, you have been given this chance to lead. You have now cleaned house at the National Prosecuting Authority and the Intelligence Services and elsewhere. But it is obvious to us as citizens that your broom does not reach the corridors of Luthuli House. We get it, you were trying to consolidate your power in the party. “Unity” was your song. But the moment has come where the party cannot and the country needs to be saved.
So, I ask you respectfully, are you a deployed cadre of the ANC or the statesmen at the helm of South Africa in a moment of crisis? Will your legacy be lockdowns and rolling blackouts or decisive leadership for the common good? I beg you, spend your political capital. If you do, your next title will be greater than that of President, it will be “Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa, Servant of the People”. Does Matamela not mean “to persuade others effortlessly”? Can you persuade your inner circle to stand up for us all, and lead us out of this valley of despair? DM
Cyril may be facing his FW de Klerk moment but, if he takes it, he will be hated just as much.
This is not a country that has ever been kind to leaders.
Why do so many people, such as this writer persist in filling up space with matter which is so obviously pointless ? The exhortations in this article will have as much effect as a dog baying moon.
The trajectory which some imagined in 1994 0f South Africa being a progressive, fast-growing, law-abiding state has simply not come to pass. The ANC big-wigs are in reality quite comfortable with the situation wherer at least for the present, they can loot at will.
intelligent South Africans should not be appealing to the ANC to reconstitute the wreckage. They should be asking themselves whether any parts of the wreckage can be saved,
I agree, these appeals to our obviously “missing in action” leader are getting tiresome. He has demonstrated time and again that it’s ANC first not SA.
I expected a gloomy article from a scenario planner, however, this is a message that could spell out hope. Something I think resonates with many South Africans. I believe it too. But, I am in no way supporting the notion that ANC should lead again in 2024 if no sweeping changes are made in 2023.
Vote the ANC out, they are not the only people ,they are not South Africa, they are not us, they are not me.
Yes, bring change with your vote in 2024. The only hope left.
We pray for you Cyril Ramaphosa, a man who has declared himself Christian. May you be given much wisdom and courage. You stand before man and the Sovereign God. Who do you fear, man or God?) History will tell.
It is refreshing when someone publishes an opinion which contains some [valid] suggestions to turn our current situation around. Our negativity and pessimism biases are thriving in the bombardment of bad news that we are exposed to each day.
In my opinion, the ANC is the only party able to correct the mistakes [whatever you wish to call it] it made. Because, if anyone thinks that the ANC will be voted out of power, they’re dreaming!
There are [according to the 2011 census] 47,1 million non-white people in this country. That is 91% of the population of South Africa. I don’t have the numbers for individuals eligible to vote but the percentage cannot be too far off.
What are the alternatives to the ANC?
The DA cannot hope to win a general election without the non-white vote. And getting a meaningful black vote is now more unlikely than ever. Yes, it is a colour issue. It is also about trust, loyalties and culture. Forget the broken promises. There will be new promises to hold on to in 2024.
I live in a small [majority non-white] village and there is a belief amongst the community that the DA is “a white party wanting to take South Africa back to Apartheid years”. Here, the majority live off social grants and they fear [no doubt have been told] that if the ANC lose the elections, their grants will be taken away. Most individuals here do not listen to nor read any news and opinions. It is mostly word of mouth as it has always been.
Coalitions?
A coalition with other smaller parties will not help the DA et co secure a majority, not at national level.
The other alternative? A coalition between the ANC and the EFF.
The country has is not going to the dogs but the dogs have come to the country. We need to make this important distinction. The author has s hallucination that an individual can save the country which was dominant during the CR17 campaign but the reality is that Ramaphosa is part of a collective that has competing self interests including himself. He is aware as an individual that he is not going to be doing anything. Some of us who supported his campaign in 2017 had to follow him and his statements that are delusional and continues to be so. He thought that the support he was given was to save the ANC not the country and is confused. He failed to grasp that he was supported to save the country not the ANC. One has argued that Cyril does not understand how to balance issues because of his limited liberation struggle organisational experience. He has no experience of an ANC branch. I have argued that Mashatile is one person who can understand the issues and the balance. This is because he actively fought state capture during the Zuma years and was on the ground and has a better understanding of the people and ANC branches than Cyril. I have no expectations from Cyril because he thinks he was supported to have the title of President and he must pack the Presidency with adulating friends and political fans. It does not work that way. We need people with capacity to deliver. He should have delivered in his first term but was looking for ANC unity whilst the country is sinking.
I agree Sir, the dogs are here and our country is the rubbish heap outside the walls of everything that is civilised and sane. We are done!
I love this sentiment: Hope is the chemotherapy that kills the cancer of fear.
And I applaud the writer for presenting a succinct and clear set of (mostly) achievable obejectives, fingers in the dyke, as it were.
In the media space of so much bluster and criticism, this is a refreshing and hopeful alternative.
Thank you Marius!
1. Ramaphosa should stand aside and let Mashatile take over. Maybe he will surprise as a leader
2. Business should stop sitting on its hands. There is more they can do in security (supporting Community Police Forums), education (expand the Adopt a School initiative), skills development (increase and take over the Skills Development Fund from the State and use it to deliver skills to premature school leavers), health care (expand low cost medical insurance), providing access to affordable credit for the informal sector, retirement funding for low-income and agricultural workers, expanding access to sport and supporting NGO’s and other civil society organizations. Business’ financial interests and longer term viability are seriously at risk
3. Faith groups should commit to establishing a fund to eliminate malnutrition
I just wish politicians would read the Daily Maverick, they may learn something.
We all have a responsibility to save the country. Especially those who hold real power. The collective power of big business to lead the way in holding whichever government is voted into power in 2024, to ransom.
We need a private Nedlac – one attended by business and appropriate NGOs but not by government – where we define the way forward for South Africa.
The resulting policy document is presented to the incoming government, and they are told to bring it into law.
If they don’t, all taxes are withheld. SARS cannot arrest the entire country.
If we are heading into chaos, let’s at least have a body of responsible citizens who represent the rest of us, which is capable of bringing order out of chaos.
The suggestion is bound to make those of us whose respect for law and order is deeply embedded reject it as unlawful, unworkable, immoral and unnecessary.
A lot of Americans felt that way in 1776. But the rest had the courage to build their country on the basis of new and truly revolutionary idea.
Do South Africans have the guts to get off their backsides and build a new future for this country?