On Monday night, 2 October, the left around the world were biting their collective nails waiting for the news to come in on the Brazilian election. After encouraging polling, and the breakthrough for the left in the recent election in Colombia, there was much optimism that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would win an outright victory against Jair Bolsonaro in the first round of voting. 

That didn’t happen and with Lula on 48.3% and Bolsonaro on 43.3% there will have to be another round of voting on 30 October 2022. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Bolsonaro is a far-right populist in the mode of Donald Trump.

Bolsonaro has reversed many of the social programmes put in place by Lula during his first period in office, sacrificed hundreds of thousands of lives to his Covid denialism, burnt vast swathes of the Amazon and driven a hard right agenda on many social issues. Alarmingly he is very close to the military and has regularly hinted at the possibility of a coup should he lose the vote. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: “Brazil presidential race goes to runoff as Lula falls short”

In Brazil, a president with close ties to the military is very disturbing. Following a US-backed coup in 1964 the country was ruled by a brutal military dictatorship until 1985 and there is a long history of Brazilian elites, and their backers in the US, preferring authoritarianism to democracy when the latter produced gains for the left.

‘Judicial coup’ 

Lula, a former leader of the metalworkers’ union in Brazil, achieved massive gains during his period in office, which ran from 2003 to 2011. Millions were lifted out of poverty, there was significant progress against racism and an improvement in the protection of the Amazon. The elites responded with what has been termed a “judicial coup”, making what have been shown to have been false allegations of corruption against Lula, for which he was jailed for eight months beginning in April 2018.

The “judicial coup” against Lula was strongly supported by much of the Brazilian media, which is firmly in the hands of the white elites, as well as the military. With Lula in prison and able to run in the 2018 election, the way was opened for Bolsonaro to take the presidency and go on to form a close alliance with Trump. 

Today Lula enjoys the overwhelming support of black and indigenous Brazilians as well as the organised formations of the working class, such as the trade unions and the Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra (MST), the huge movement of the landless. He is also supported by progressive Catholics. Bolsonaro is supported by the military, the old white elites and the rapidly growing Pentecostal constituency. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: “Rebirth of History and the return of the left”

After the setbacks for the left following the defeat of Bernie Sanders by the Democratic Party machine in the US and then the removal of Jeremy Corbyn from the leadership of the Labour Party in the UK following an outrageous campaign of slander against him, led by The Guardian newspaper, the recent gains in Latin America have reinvigorated progressive hopes.

The victory for the left in Chile in late 2011 started the ball rolling. The stunning victory for Gustavo Petro in Colombia earlier this year was a major breakthrough for the left after a lean period and the prospect of a left victory in Brazil raised the possibility of a left bloc across Latin America that could link with Bolivia, where the left returned to office after the 2019 US-backed coup, as well as the quite different forms of government in Venezuela and Cuba and create a powerful anti-US bloc.

South African connections

Lula’s campaign has been very strongly supported by the MST, which faced repression under Bolsonaro. This makes the Lula campaign personal for many activists in South Africa where there are very close connections between the MST and Abahlali baseMjondolo, often said to be the closest thing to the MST outside of Brazil, as well as Numsa. South African activists often travel to the MST’s political school for training and engage in various kinds of political discussions with the MST and its allies.   

If Lula is finally victorious on 30 October it will be a thrilling night for the left in South Africa and give activists here a real shot in the arm. Of course, the left in the ANC, notably in the SACP and parts of Cosatu, will also be watching the election in Brazil closely, and will also take heart from a Lula victory. 

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Lula has his central base in the Workers’ Party (PT) which grew out of the trade union movement, but he has also built a broad alliance among other left forces, including some smaller parties as well as the MST and other grassroots groups.

Now that the SACP and powerful currents in Cosatu are threatening to finally break with the ANC before the 2024 election, left strategists will be wondering if the left in the ANC could ally with the left outside of the ANC – notably Numsa and Abahlali baseMjondolo – to build a South African version of the PT. A victory for Lula and the PT later this month could certainly build energies around a project to build left unity here. 

The South African left cannot afford another lost generation. The hugely impressive social achievements of the PT in Brazil show what the ANC could have achieved if it had not been so craven in following the neoliberal script, and then collapsing into a grotesque kleptocracy under Jacob Zuma. 

Brazil was no paradise under Lula. But lifting tens of millions of people out of poverty is a huge social gain, as is the progress that was made against racism. The South African left has a lot to learn from the experience of Brazil, as well as other progressive parties and governments in other Latin American countries such as Bolivia and Columbia. 

As we wait with bated breath for the run-off in Brazil on 30 October, the question that must occupy the minds of the left here in South Africa is: how do we get from the current stage of fragmentation to building a viable and coherent electoral project?

The ball is in the court of Cosatu, the SACP, Numsa and Abahlali baseMjondolo. History will make harsh judgements if real progress is not made in good time for the 2024 elections. DM