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Opinionista

South Africa’s other Nenegate

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John Matisonn is a former senior United Nations elections official, Independent Broadcasting Authority councillor, and long-time political and foreign correspondent. He is the author of Cyril’s Choices, An Agenda for Reform; and God, Spies and Lies, Finding South Africa’s Future Through its Past.

Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan has kept the wolf at the door for now. But it’s just for now. None of the measures employed are formulae for growth.

Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan was determined to act forcefully to fight kleptocracy this week, yet we did not feel the pain we expected.

There were several reasons: one, Gordhan, an ANC leader, preferred not to go further in an election year, and two, he could lean on a the good fortune of the oil price drop to shore up the Treasury with hikes in fuel and tyre levies. We won’t notice the pain while oil is at $33 a barrel.

It was not the first time the oil price cut saved us. Last year, it saved the country from stagflation. Inflation began pushing over the 6% limit due to wage and electricity hikes, while the economy stagnated. Then, unanticipated by the experts, oil tumbled to a fourth of its peak price. That saved inflation from moving beyond 7%, and Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene could levy petrol without the consumer really noticing. Petrol at the pump still cost less.

Gordhan took the same route on Wednesday: fuel levies are now 5.5% of total tax revenue. But nobody knows when and how far the oil price will go up again. It’s a short-term fix. We were just damn lucky. The wolves were kept at bay one more time.

Levies on oil and tyres, a coming sugar tax, another rise in sin taxes and capital gains were just about enough for now. He kept the government budget in check while he moves to stop haemorrhaging in South African Airways and public service salaries.

But none of these measures are formulae for growth. They don’t create jobs. South Africa still does not act like a country that sees jobs as the big task to be tackled with fervent determination.

For that, other parts of government have to act. We know from Nenegate that the government will not act without civil society pressure. But the firing of Nene was not the first cabinet dismissal that rode roughshod over the public interest for some factional and possibly sleazy purpose.

Before Nenegate, President Zuma changed Communications Ministers five times in five years. This was catastrophic for the Information Economy. Poorly managed under Thabo Mbeki, South Africa continued its decline in world internet rankings under Zuma. The goals set for the privatisation of Telkom were not met.

Telkom was intended to be a crucial piece of the strategy to both spread fixed line cheap telephones around the country and expand cheap, fast internet. In a fast-changing sector, new strategies for broadband could have substituted after Telkom’s failure. One or two of the five ministers were on track to do so before their removal.

Then came the telecommunications Nenegate. Last year, without explaining himself, the president fired Yunus Carrim as Communications Minister and split the department of communications in two.

It was the sort of announcement obscure enough not to resonate with the public, but it fundamentally undermined what was left of the policy framework. The Information Economy is a consequence of the convergence of IT, broadcasting and telecommunications. In the old days, radio and TV came from the air, and phones from cables. Now all three can be transmitted via ether. A revolution! But the president seemed oblivious of the opportunities. When his decision was announced, I could not find a single professional in the field who was not horrified.

South Africa has failed to match its African peers in the information revolution for twenty years. Our world internet rankings are lower than they were then. If they had turned around, tens of thousands of good, above-ground jobs would have been created enabling many black South Africans to live a good life.

This failure can be attributed directly to government, who were advised along the way how to avoid it.

Information is the oil of the modern economy. To get South Africa’s Information Economy on track requires several steps. But they are all logical and easily done if government gets a graft of backbone.

There are two simple elements. Both were clearly discussed when I was in government as far back as 1994-1998.

First, tertiary education needs much greater focus on training IT people. There are currently thousands of jobs unfilled. Unfortunately, instead the government is building two new universities motivated by a desire to pacify regional constituencies and provincial political potentates rather than job-creation. Creating jobs would mean a laser focus on what the new institutions teach that the economy needs.

Second, the two ministries, telecommunications and communications, must be put back together. After that, the regulator, ICASA, has to be freed of political interference and put back in the hands of experts. Several excellent black Chairs of ICASA left in despair. Get one of them back, if they’ll come.

Taking their advice, taking decisions based on the public interest instead of tender wars, will clean up the sector. There are multiple businesses and jobs waiting to be built. They will reinforce the good already being done in the Square Kilometre Array telescope programme. There are synergies that are unexplored.

This is one example of the low hanging fruit of job-creation. The sector has been crying out for honest professional governance for two decades.

Pravin Gordhan carried a heavy load for the country this week. His role in saving SA from a junk downgrade is crucial. His budget restraint was, as the saying goes, necessary but not sufficient. It just creates the preconditions for an economic turnaround.

Nevertheless, with South Africa’s campuses in flames and a spirit of unrest in the land, he was the only man who looked presidential. He remains the most powerful and respected man in the country and he has allies at the highest level among the growing number in the ANC who recognise Zuma has to go.

At that moment he was something more than the Finance Minister, even if less than a president. He gave the country a presidential talk that was somehow reassuring:

I have a simple message. We are strong enough, resilient enough and creative enough to manage and overcome our economic challenges…Let us chart a new course for the economy and well-being of all south Africans, particularly those hardest hit by unemployment… this is not only crucial to address social imbalances and inequality, it is also fundamental to encouraging investment.”

It was possible to believe he meant what he said. DM

John Matisonn is the author of GOD, SPIES AND LIES, Finding South Africa’s future through its past.

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