Headache to Migraine — Zuma works towards becoming ANC’s KZN problem

Former President Jacob Zuma throwing his lot in with the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party may have the unexpected consequence of helping President Cyril Ramaphosa to enforce unity in the ANC and empowering the party to claim people should vote for it to “stop Zuma”. At least one senior ANC leader has said he’s concerned violence could be sparked.

Over the last few weeks and particularly the last few days, the ANC has had to respond to many questions about Zuma. The party has still not made a formal decision about expelling or disciplining him, and Ramaphosa had to greet the “real MK” when he delivered the party’s January 8th Statement.

The ANC’s problem is simple.

Every time any leader or structure of the party talks about Zuma, it legitimises him and allows the possibility that he still has political power.

Still, Zuma is impossible to ignore.

As has been previously noted, it is unprecedented in South Africa for the former leader of a governing party to run against that party. 

A divisive figure

Some may have forgotten how important Zuma has been in our recent history. It is fair to say that no single person has divided our country as much as he has since 1990. He dominated our politics, from the conviction of Schabir Shaik for paying him a bribe in 2005, all the way through to his resignation as President on Valentine’s Day 2018.

Along the way, he sparked intense debates about rape and intergenerational sex, the Guptas, polygamy, traditional leaders, free tertiary education, corruption and many, many other issues.

Even three years after he lost power, the decision to jail him sparked massive violence, which claimed the lives of more than 300 people and caused economic damage to the tune of at least $3-billion. Through it all, right up until the December 2017 conference, Zuma could rely on the unshakeable support of the ANC.

Nowhere was that support stronger than in KZN, which is one of the reasons the ANC in that province has come under extreme pressure in recent days.

On Tuesday, its provincial secretary Bheki Mtolo told SAfm that Zuma was “no longer a member of the ANC”, because he had expelled himself.

Mtolo also said, several times, that the ANC in KZN strongly supported Ramaphosa.

This has not always been the case.

At the ANC’s conferences in 2017 and 2022, the KZN ANC strongly backed other candidates. In 2017, it supported outgoing Presidency Minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma. This was seen as support for Zuma’s political unit.

In 2022, it supported the former health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize, despite the strong evidence of corruption against him from the Digital Vibes scandal.

In the end, at both of those conferences, the ANC in KZN came away with no members in the party’s top leadership.

Also, in 2021 the local elections results exposed the ANC’s weakness there, and the possibility that it could lose the provincial elections later this year.

All of this has given the party’s provincial leaders few options.

Political suicide

While some of its members have strongly supported Zuma in the past, and even after he was released from prison, it would be political suicide to do so now. No member of the ANC can publicly support someone campaigning against the party.

Many of these people will feel betrayed and that they have been placed in an invidious position.

At the same time, while Mtolo and others may believe Zuma has “expelled himself” from the ANC, that is not Zuma’s view.

As recently as Wednesday morning, MK spokesperson Nhlamulo Ndhlela said on SAfm that Zuma “is a member of the ANC and will die a member of the ANC”.

That makes it even more difficult for the party to deal with this issue, as a large part of the battle is about the heritage and legacy of the ANC.

In short, the history of the ANC is now the playing field and Zuma and the ANC are fighting for it.

A surprising warning

Amidst this, Water and Sanitation Minister Senzo Mchunu has issued a surprising warning about Zuma, MK and violence.

He told SAfm on Wednesday morning that he was concerned about security, and asked, “Where is this thing going to end? Remember, this party has been named after the military wing of the ANC which is itself a problem, but it is being dealt with elsewhere. 

“And then people will think and associate the party with the military wing of the ANC, which was established for legitimate reasons at that time for a particular objective… 

“And so people will get emotional about this and there is somebody that needs to be fought. Now once they get into that mode, we need to worry … who is the person who must be fought and so on? And so, we need to deal with that, while making sure that the country is stable from a security point of view.”

Mchunu has a long history with the ANC in KZN (he narrowly and somewhat inexplicably lost to Ace Magashule for the position of secretary-general in 2017). He appears to be suggesting that the formation of MK and Zuma’s involvement will lead to violence.

Of course, the violent reaction to Zuma’s imprisonment in 2022 may well inform this comment.

There is a more cynical reading of this, which is that the ANC is preparing the ground to use the security forces against MK should it pose a major political threat.

Either way, the fact that Mchunu made this suggestion is very significant.

Meanwhile, at the polls, the manner in which Zuma is campaigning may lead to a very strange outcome.

There appear to be many people who voted for the party when it was led by Nelson Mandela or Thabo Mbeki but have moved away from it in recent times.

If Ramaphosa and the ANC can convince those voters that MK poses a real threat, then they could argue that the best way to prevent Zuma becoming President again would be to vote for the ANC.

And so the ANC of 2024 could start a campaign to “Stop Zuma”, 15 years after Helen Zille did so. DM