WEATHER WOES
SA summer forecast bodes ill for grain crops as El Niño fans the flames of drier conditions
As the El Niño weather pattern strengthens, the summer forecast for South Africa has become progressively drier while remaining hot, notably for the eastern regions. This bodes ill for summer grain crops such as maize and the farming sector more widely.
Over the past two weeks, the South African Weather Service has updated its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, which provides an outlook for the following five months. The bottom line is that El Niño, which typically heralds drought in this region, is now baring its fangs and things are looking drier.
On 5 December, the SA Weather Service said in its December to April outlook that El Niño had now reached a “strong” state.
“The … multimodel rainfall forecast indicates below-normal rainfall over most of the country during Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF), Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) and Feb-Mar-Apr (FMA), except during DJF when low probabilities for above-normal rainfall is predicted over some areas of the eastern interior,” the outlook said.
“From the previous cycle of seasonal forecasts, the current rainfall outlook became more in favour of below-normal rainfall over the eastern parts of the country.”
This week the SA Weather Service provided an update for January to May.
“The … multimodel rainfall forecast indicates mostly below-normal rainfall over most of the country during Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM), Feb-Mar-Apr (FMA) and Mar-Apr-May (MAM) with the exception of the central and eastern coastal areas indicating higher likelihood of above-normal rainfall,” it said.
This means that only the central and eastern coastal areas are now seen with prospects of above-normal rainfall, but the vast majority of South Africa is forecast to get less rain than usual.
This would include the eastern part of the grain belt in Mpumalanga, where good soil moisture levels and early rains saw farmers planting summer crops in October and November. Forecasts for those rains to continue are now evaporating.
And the summer and early autumn forecasts still see the higher-than-normal temperatures flagged in previous outlooks.
El Niño is expected to fade by the austral winter, with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation moving back to the neutral conditions which lie between it and La Niña, the global weather pattern that brought good rains and bumper crops the past three seasons. This is in line with US government and other global forecasts.
That would be a relief as temperatures in South Africa and around the world have been blazing to record highs in 2023.
Read more in Daily Maverick: November breaks heat records in SA — a clear reminder of what’s to come in a warming world
Climate change linked to fossil fuel usage injects El Niño with steroids, and the 2014-16 event was a scorcher which hammered South Africa’s agricultural sector while leaving dam levels low and dry. But at least soil moisture levels in some regions are still fairly good thanks to the rains of the recent La Niña.
A harsh and prolonged El Niño is the last thing that South Africa needs right now. The economy may be in recession and food inflation remains high, stoking a cost-of-living crisis, while water shortages are becoming pronounced.
Hopefully, this one will evaporate by winter without burning a path of misery across the platteland. DM
Become an Insider
The ideal time for an election! Fossil fuel usage injects El Niño with steroids – we know this, so why does it feel like a constant uphill battle to change the modus operandi of SA? Is our ANC-led gov’t so braindead?
We urgently need a new government. The ANC does not have a clue about water waste management. Our water reticulation systems and reservoirs are hopelessly inadequate and fragile after years of neglect by various and criminally inept ministers of water affairs. Many millions of Rands have been lost to corruption and crooked tenders overseen by the ANC and the country is now perched on the edge of a major water disaster. The only party with the in-depth knowledge and ability to urgently deal with this problem is the DA. A mess of coalitions will simply flounder and SA will sink.