Russia is likely to continue suffering mounting casualties as it recruits more ill-equipped and ill-trained soldiers and intensifies attacks in eastern Ukraine, according to US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.

A UK-based think tank said Russia may have lost half of its main battle tanks in the past year. Google said Russian state-backed hacking attacks on Ukraine are near-constant.

Key developments

• Putin’s war is crippling Ukraine’s economy — maybe Russia’s too
• EBRD warns on sanctions-busting as Russia neighbours’ trade booms
• Russian hackers slammed Ukraine last year, says Google
• Displaced Ukrainians are reinventing their lives
• US concerned Iran and others are helping Russia to secure chips
• Ukraine invasion shows world’s war machine needs more ammunition

On the ground

One person was killed, eight injured and more than 80 residences damaged in Pavlohrad, in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, after Russia’s overnight missile attack. Ukraine’s air defences downed less than half the 36 Russian missiles fired overnight. Air defence spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat put out another urgent call for modern air defence systems.

Russian forces on Wednesday continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, along the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in the western Donetsk oblast, said the Institute for the Study of War.

Estonia calls for €100bn in aid for Ukraine this year

Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur made the call at a news conference in Tallinn with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Pevkur said the Europe Union should jointly provide Ukraine with one million artillery rounds this year, in accordance with an Estonian proposal that the bloc’s member states are reviewing, and that Nato allies should increase their annual defence spending “closer to” 2.5% of GDP.

Read more: EU must spend $4bn on ammunition for Ukraine, says Estonia 

Israel to help Ukraine build missile warning system

Israel will help Ukraine develop an early warning missile detection system and provide up to $200-million for healthcare and other civilian projects, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said during a visit to Kyiv on Thursday.

Cohen’s announcement followed a meeting with his counterpart Dmytro Kuleba during the first high-level Israeli visit to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion last year.

“I am proud to stand with Ukraine in the face of these challenging times, and Israel is committed to continuing our support,” said Cohen, according to a statement from Israel’s Foreign Ministry.

Ukraine had been critical of Israel for failing to supply weapons and an air defence system.

Putin hails movement of Ukrainian children to Russian families

Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the transfer of children from four occupied regions of Ukraine into Russian families, after a US report concluded that thousands had been placed in “political reeducation” camps including some subjected to forcible adoption that may constitute war crimes.

“The number of applications from our citizens regarding the adoption of children” from the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions was growing, Putin said in a televised meeting with Maria Lvova-Belova, the Kremlin’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights. Lvova-Belova (38), who has at least 10 children, told the president that she herself had “adopted” a 15-year-old boy from Mariupol.

The meeting took place after the School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale University on Tuesday reported that at least 6,000 Ukrainian children aged from four months to 17 years old had been placed in “political reeducation” camps in Russia and occupied Crimea, with some later adopted or sent to foster families.

The US government-backed report named Lvova-Belova as “one of the most highly involved figures in Russia’s deportation and adoption of Ukraine’s children.” She has been sanctioned by the US, the UK, the European Union, Australia and Canada for her role.

Wagner leader blames Russian defence ministry for slow Bakhmut offensive

Russian forces won’t be able to surround the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut earlier than March or April, said Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group. He blamed “monstrous bureaucracy” in Russia’s defence ministry for the failure to make quicker progress.

Prigozhin said in messages posted on Telegram that Wagner’s troops were facing “colossal” artillery fire in Bakhmut, where they’ve battled with Ukrainian forces for months. He claimed Russia’s military command was reluctant to expend ammunition while Ukrainian soldiers were being reinforced with new weapons and retained good morale.

The mercenary leader, who has risen to greater public prominence in Russia during the war, has long been an outspoken critic of the defence ministry’s conduct of the invasion.

Canada pledges additional money for demining 

Canada has pledged another C$7.5-million ($5.6-million) for Ukraine’s demining efforts, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Twitter following a meeting with Melanie Joly, Canada’s minister for foreign affairs.

EU sanctions envoy to brief diplomats on Russia penalties

David O’Sullivan, the EU’s ambassador for sanctions enforcement, is planning to meet the bloc’s ambassadors in Brussels on 22 February to discuss sanctions implementation against Russia and new restrictive measures, said people familiar with the matter.

The talks, expected to take place during an informal breakfast, will come as the bloc is preparing its 10th package of sanctions, which it aims to finish by 24 February, one year since Moscow invaded Ukraine.

Russia has lost half its tanks in Ukraine, says Institute for Strategic Studies

Russia’s military has lost at least half of its tanks since it invaded Ukraine almost a year ago, according to a report by the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

About 50% of Russia’s pre-war fleet of T-72B3 and T-72B3M tanks, and many of its T-80s, have probably been lost, the think tank said in a report published on Wednesday. Moscow has brought in older equipment as replacements.

Last year, Russia probably also lost 6% to 8% of its active tactical combat aircraft inventory, the institute said.

Russian hackers have slammed Ukraine, says Google

State-sponsored hackers have inundated Ukrainian targets with a “near-constant digital attack” since last February, Alphabet’s Google said in a new report ahead of the Munich Security Conference that starts on Friday.

Google’s threat analysis group said Russian government-backed attackers had increased their attempted hacks on Ukrainian users by 250% in the past year compared with 2020. Ukraine’s ministries of defence and foreign affairs were among the top targets.

Stoltenberg urges Turkey to green-light Nordics into Nato

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged Turkey to approve the accession of Sweden and Finland into the military alliance, even as Turkey’s foreign minister said Sweden needs to do more to crack down on terrorism.

“They’ve both made big steps since we signed the joint memorandum of understanding,” Stoltenberg said of the Nordic countries at a joint presser with Mevlut Cavusoglu in Ankara. The Nato chief also condemned the recent burning of Islam’s holy book in Stockholm while adding that Sweden had been able to prevent other demonstrations.

“We can separately evaluate the membership process of Finland and Sweden,” Cavusoglu said.

Worst is over in Russia’s war on Ukrainian energy, says operator  

The worst damage wrought by Russia’s campaign to destroy the Ukrainian energy grid is probably over because of improved air defence and Moscow’s deteriorating ability to strike, the head of the nation’s grid operator said.

Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the chief executive officer of Ukrenergo, said that the approaching end of winter will offer relief even as Russia continues to send salvos of missiles and drones to target infrastructure.

Norway agrees to $7.4bn support over five years 

Norway’s government and a broad majority of the parties in the Parliament have agreed on a 75 billion krone ($7.4-billion) five-year programme to support Ukraine.

There is also broad agreement on the provision of additional assistance to developing countries affected by the global ramifications of the war in Ukraine.

The pledge follows a push from European officials for Norway to share its windfall export gains from higher gas prices. Ukraine’s president addressed Norway’s Parliament on Thursday morning.

Ukraine power systems hold up after overnight attacks

Ukraine’s electricity generation continued to cover demand and a certain reserve of power capacity was available, Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said on the ministry website.

The nuclear plants in Ukraine-controlled territory are producing more than half of all electric power in the country, he said.

Volodymyr Kudrytskiy, the CEO of Ukrenergo, said at a press conference in Kyiv that no new electricity cuts were expected for now.

Ukraine downs 16 of 36 Russian cruise missiles 

Ukraine’s air defence downed 16 out of 36 Russian missiles fired overnight on Thursday, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said on Telegram.

The missiles were fired from strategic bombers near Kursk and the Caspian Sea in Russia, as well as from fighter jets near the Russia-occupied Ukrainian city Melitopol, and from ships in the Black Sea.

Missiles struck the north and west of the country, as well as in Dnipropetrovsk and Kyrovohrad regions, said the chief of the Ukrainian presidential office, Andriy Yermak.

Russian air sorties have increased in past week, says UK

Russia’s sortie rates had increased in the past week after a period of quieter activity, but it has deployed a similar number of planes in the Ukrainian operation for months, the UK defence ministry said.

Moscow’s combat jets “operate almost exclusively over Russian-held territory, preventing them from carrying out their key strike role effectively,” the ministry said in a Twitter thread.

EBRD warns on sanctions-busting involving Russia’s neighbours 

Booming trade flows with Russia’s neighbours may be a sign that sanctions imposed in the wake of Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine are being avoided, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. DM