The BankservAfrica Economic Transactions Index (BETI) edged up in December to 132.1 from 130.3 in November, BankservAfrica said on Wednesday. This followed six consecutive months of decline for the index, a measurement of economic transactions between South Africa’s banks. 

This brought it back almost to its January 2022 level of 132.8. But it remains well below the all-time high of 143.4 reached in May 2022.

“This indeed talks to the resilience of the South African economy, while the annual festive season might have played a role, pushing the number of transactions (electronic debit and credit transactions as measured by the BETI) to an all-time high of 143.6 million, an 11.4% year-on-year increase,” BankservAfrica said in a statement.

South Africans may be cash-strapped and the economic environment may be appalling as rolling blackouts reach record levels, interest rates rise and inflation remains high, but it seems the country let off some steam this December — the first since 2019 in which there were effectively no Covid restrictions.

The hangover is already setting in.

The economic outlook for 2023 is nothing short of dreadful as rolling blackouts shift into sixth gear with no end in sight.

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Compounding the mounting domestic challenges is a sour global outlook that will curtail demand for South African exports across the board and dry up investment flows.

The World Bank has slashed its forecast for global economic growth this year to 1.7% from 3.0% previously, citing a worldwide tightening of monetary policy, high inflation and the continuing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

There were a handful of other green shoots that emerged late last year, including a 13.9% rise in new vehicle sales for 2022 compared with 2021 and surprising gross domestic product growth of 1.6% in the third quarter. The BETI falls into this category and does show some underlying resilience in the economy.

But as 2023 progresses, expect more withered vines than green shoots on the economic horizon. DM/BM