Ukraine’s Central Bank may cut its economic outlook following Russia’s recent attacks on the country’s energy system, its governor said. European Union states are starting to coalesce around a plan to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel ahead of a Monday deadline.

Elon Musk risks giving a helping hand to Russian President Vladimir Putin if Twitter is unable to root out propaganda about the war in Ukraine, one of the European Union’s officials warned. Ukraine’s president has urged Musk to visit his war-torn nation to see first hand the damage done by Russia’s invasion.

French President Macron said that only Ukraine can decide when the conditions have been met to start negotiating a peace settlement with Russia.

“We will never urge Ukrainians to make a compromise that is not acceptable to them,” Macron told reporters after meeting with Biden in the White House. “We have to let Ukrainians decide the moment and the conditions that they will negotiate.” Although the French president has strongly supported Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, he drew strong criticism with his previous calls not to “humiliate” Russia.

President Biden said that he’s prepared to speak with Putin “if in fact there is an interest in him deciding he’s looking for a way to end the war – he hasn’t done that yet”. He neglected to add his administration’s standard formulation that there would be no moves concerning Ukraine unless Ukraine participated.

Another 50 Ukrainian and Russian prisoners were swapped, officials said on Thursday. French President Emmanuel Macron, who is meeting President Joe Biden at the White House, said he plans to talk to Putin “in the coming days”.

Key developments

• EU closes in on $60 price cap for Russian oil as deadline looms
• Xi urges calming war in Ukraine in talks with Europe’s Michel
• Russia’s labour-starved economy pays price of Putin’s call-up 
• Zelensky invites Musk to Ukraine to see devastation

On the ground

Ukraine said the risk remains that Russia will launch new missile attacks against energy infrastructure. Air raid sirens went off across much of the country early on Thursday afternoon as three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets, often used to carry Kalibr missiles, took off from Belarusian airspace and headed for Russia.

Separately, Russian forces made 16 air strikes against Ukraine-controlled territory, including Bilohirya in Zaporizhzhia, the country’s Defence Ministry said on Telegram. Russian troops also attacked Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv region with rockets and shelled recently liberated Kherson with multiple launch rocket systems. Ukrainian forces saw Russian troops evacuating their units from some occupied areas in Zaporizhzhia.

Zelensky discusses grain initiative with Senegal’s Sall

Ukraine’s president and Macky Sall, president of Senegal and chairman of the African Union, held talks about the implementation of the “Grain from Ukraine” initiative launched last week, and other matters.

Germany’s Scholz would welcome increased Nato role

Germany’s chancellor said he would welcome an increased role by Nato to coordinate the security of allies’ critical infrastructure, particularly subsea links.

Speaking to reporters at a joint press conference with Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Olaf Scholz added that an offer to send anti-missile Patriots to Poland still stands.

Separately, asked whether Germany was doing enough to reduce dependencies on Beijing in light of a recent contentious deal with the Hamburg port, Stoltenberg said each country “has to find the balance between economic engagement with China and at the same time preventing becoming too dependent or vulnerable”.

US Treasury official confident on price cap progress 

Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said that he was confident European Union countries would soon agree on a price cap for Russian crude oil, and that $60 a barrel would be “in the range” coalition countries have discussed.

European allies show support for special tribunal on Russia

Foreign ministers and other senior officials from Europe and beyond made “one more step” at their meeting in Poland toward creating a special tribunal to evaluate Russia’s “crime of aggression”, Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.

Discussions were held at a side event to the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) annual meeting being held in Lodz. The gathering continues on Friday.

Poland, which chairs the OSCE in 2022, said that “all tools available” should be harnessed to bring attention to the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on children.

G7 expects Kyiv to appoint new justice council members 

Ambassadors from the Group of Seven expect the Ukrainian Congress of Judges to appoint eight new members of the High Council of Justice in January, the group said on Twitter.

“This will restart the Council’s work, reinforce Ukraine’s resilience and fulfil a key condition for Ukraine’s EU path,” according to the statement.

Another 50 Ukraine POWs returned in swap 

Another 50 Ukrainian prisoners of war have been returned in a swap with Russia, Andriy Yermak, a top presidential aide, said on Telegram. Those returning home include soldiers from Mariupol and Azovstal, as well as wounded from the Olenivka prison facility, he said. 

Russia’s defence ministry earlier announced a swap of 50 prisoners on each side, without providing more details.

Ukraine earlier said that swaps had intensified recently. Overall, 1,286 servicemen had returned to Ukraine since the Russian invasion started, said Andriy Yusov, a Ukrainian military intelligence representative.

Spanish officials find suspicious package at US embassy in Madrid 

Spanish officials say a suspicious package was found at the US embassy in Madrid, a day after an explosive device ignited at the city’s Ukrainian embassy, the Associated Press reported.

Earlier, Secretary of State Rafael Perez said devices were detected on Thursday at Spain’s defence ministry, and a package containing a “pyrotechnical” substance was found on 24 November, addressed to Spain’s prime minister.

Read more: Spain probes more letter bombs after Ukraine embassy blast 

Macron holds out hope for negotiations, will speak to Putin

French President Emmanuel Macron says he plans to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the “coming days” about Russia’s war in Ukraine, and believes it’s still possible to negotiate a solution to the conflict.

“I wanted to first have the state visit with President Biden and have an in-depth discussion with our two teams together,” Macron said of his upcoming conversation with Putin during an interview on Thursday with ABC News.

Macron said he believed Putin could still be a rational actor. “My conviction and my pragmatic approach is I have to engage with the existing leaders and the one in charge of the country.”

Ukraine’s central bank likely to cut economic outlook 

The bank is likely to make the move following Russia’s weeks of attacks on the country’s energy system, though it won’t change its forecast for inflation, Governor Andriy Pyshnyi told local Forbes in an interview. 

The policymaker saw Ukraine’s economy growing by 4% in 2023 after a contraction of more than 31% this year, but will have to review this outlook after Russia’s bombardment of the country’s regions and cities, most recently on 23 November, which led to the changes that the central bank’s governor called “dramatic”. Large swaths of Ukraine have been without power and water.

“The impact may turn out to be much more powerful than we predicted before,” Pyshnyi said. “At the same time, damages to energy infrastructure have already exceeded our estimates as of October, so it is highly likely that we will downgrade our outlook for economic activity.” 

EU closes in on $60 price cap for Russian oil

European Union states are starting to coalesce around a plan to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel, their latest attempt to clinch an agreement before a Monday deadline, according to people familiar with the matter. 

Amazon to provide Ukraine with $75m for cloud technologies  

Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Ukraine’s ministry for digital transformation signed a memorandum on cooperation for 2023 and an allocation of $75-million for cloud technologies. 

“The cloud can’t be destroyed by missiles, so Amazon makes us more resilient,” Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in a statement on the ministry’s website.

From the first days of the full-scale invasion, AWS provided strong support to Ukraine, providing technologies to save important Ukrainian state, banking and educational data, Fedorov said.  

Seven EU countries make fresh push for dynamic gas price cap  

A group of seven European Union member states is pushing for a more dynamic gas price cap, arguing that the one put forward by the bloc’s executive branch is designed so that it won’t get triggered and therefore wouldn’t help consumers pay their bills.

Countries including Italy, Belgium and Greece, are submitting an amendment that would set a cap based largely on a fixed level — using as an example €160 per megawatt-hour — but also with a floating element based on prices at key international hubs, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. 

Russia says Ukraine must figure in any strategic talks with US 

Russia wants any talks with the US on strategic stability to cover the conflict in Ukraine, as well, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, charging Washington with an unwillingness to restart talks.

“It’s impossible to discuss strategic stability today and ignore everything that’s happening in Ukraine,” he told an online briefing. He said the US had refused to discuss the war in what few contacts had continued with Russia, citing a policy of not talking about Ukraine without Kyiv’s participation.

Lavrov also said it was the US that initiated last month’s meeting in Ankara between Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, appealing to keep the talks confidential. Reports of the meeting appeared the day it took place.

November had most missile strikes by Russia, says Ukraine 

The energy system was the main target of cruise missiles and 80 drones fired in November, military spokesperson Oleksii Hromov told reporters in Kyiv. 

Ukrainian air defence downed 72% of the cruise missiles and 80% of the drones last month, he said.

Musk warned to keep Putin propaganda off Twitter  

Musk risks giving a helping hand to Russian President Vladimir Putin if Twitter’s recent staff cuts prevent the platform from rooting out propaganda about the war in Ukraine, a European Union official warned.

Failing to take on fake or misleading content online could “lead to the very quick abuse” of Twitter, European Commission Vice-President Vera Jourova, who’s spearheading efforts to tackle online disinformation, said in an interview with Bloomberg. This includes making sure the platform doesn’t become a hub for Russian propaganda.

EU’s Michel, Xi discuss war in Ukraine  

European Council President Charles Michel discussed a range of topics, including Russia’s war against Ukraine, with China’s president, according to a statement from his spokesman.

Michel underlined that the EU counts on China as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council to call on Russia to respect the core principles of the UN Charter and contribute to ending Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.

Our era should be one of peace, says Modi  

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi published an op-ed in several newspapers, saying “our era should not be an era of wars”.

This comes on the eve of India’s G20 presidency. Modi wrote that he intends to promote the idea of peaceful solutions to conflicts.

Read more: Modi signals Putin’s war is a challenge for India as G20 host

UN expects Russian ammonia exports via Ukraine to resume 

The UN expects Russian ammonia exports via Ukraine to resume as a deal for pumping the fertiliser through a pipeline to a Black Sea port is “quite close,” Reuters reported, citing Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths.

The deal may be achieved this week and shipments could be started within a week or two, the news service reported. DM