It’s that time again, when the Proteas face the question of whether they can break their history of failure at a global cricket tournament. This time, the quest is the 2022 T20 World Cup in Australia.

Of all the formats in the game, 20-over cricket is the one closest to a lottery, when previous form cannot be guaranteed as a measure of success.

One massive over for a batting side, or one maiden for the bowling side, could define the course of the match. Dot balls and sixes carry more value in T20 cricket because it’s a format that magnifies both mistakes and successes.

So, are Mark Boucher’s men capable of claiming that elusive silverware in his last assignment as coach? Of course they are capable of winning. But will they? Well, that is the question that no South African team, captain or coach has been able to answer.

Boucher’s side have the weapons, especially in the bowling department on Australia’s fast and bouncy pitches. Seamers Kagiso Rabada, Anrich Nortje, Lungi Ngidi and Marco Jansen will relish the conditions and, in turn, the conditions could assist them.

Keshav Maharaj and Tabraiz Shamsi offer the slow bowling variation. Wayne Parnell has re-emerged as a class all-rounder in this format and in David Miller the Proteas have an in-form, heavy-hitting middle order batter. There are plenty of good ingredients to make an assault on the title.

The rough diamond that is Tristan Stubbs also has the potential to emerge as the star of the tournament. The devastating big hitter is more than a blunt instrument.

Stubbs’s natural talent, combined with being raised as a modern cricketer schooled in the unconventional skills of T20 cricket, makes him box office. He is one of a handful of players with the skills and mindset to alter the course of a match.

The Proteas have been consistent in T20 cricket in 2022 and enjoyed some success in the shortest format this year. They drew the series staged in India this past June 2-2. They beat England 2-1 and Ireland 2-0 in consecutive away series in August.

And they just lost 2-1 in India in another series a few weeks ago, but posted successive scores in excess of 220 in T20I cricket for the first time. Despite some top-order ­batting issues, the big hitters showed South Africa can hurt opponents.

Boucher experimented with his top six over the course of the games against England and Ireland, and saw Reeza Hendricks and Rilee Rossouw flourish.

Opener Hendricks made the most of captain Temba Bavuma’s injury-enforced absence, smashing four half-centuries in five games against England and Ireland.

The decision to recall Rossouw proved inspired, as the explosive No 3 scored 131 runs over three games against England at a strike rate of 160.

Despite these numbers, there are some issues around the top six. 

South Africa head coach Mark Boucher. Are Boucher’s men capable of claiming that elusive silverware in his last assignment as coach? (Photo: Kai Schwoerer / Getty Images)

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Bavuma question

The biggest negative was the collective failure of the top order in the first encounter in India on 25 September when the Proteas slumped to nine for five. Bavuma’s wretched form was another concern, only yielding three runs in three innings in the 2-1 series loss in India.

Top-order runs will remain key at the World Cup and Boucher must be reaching a point where Bavuma’s place is under pressure. In such a cutthroat format, lack of runs and also taking six balls without making a run, as Bavuma did in the second T20I when the Proteas were chasing 237, was criminal.

Hendricks must surely be under consideration even though he was not used in the three T20Is against India. But it’s unlikely Boucher will jettison Bavuma just yet.

He only has to look at Rossouw, who failed to score a run in the first two matches against India before smashing 100 off 48 balls in the third match, to know that fortunes change fast in T20 cricket. Boucher knows the margins between success and failure are slim and it doesn’t take much to regain form.

Bavuma later fell ill and missed two of the three one-day internationals (ODIs) in India, but Boucher remained bullish that faster Aussie wickets will suit the skipper.

“Temba would’ve liked to get some form before the World Cup and it was unfortunate that he got sick for the last two ODIs.

“It would’ve been the perfect opportunity for him to get in and find some form,” Boucher said.

“We do still have two warm-up games at our disposal and I believe the conditions will suit Temba a bit more in Australia. We’ll try getting him back up and running again, getting him in the nets and letting him get comfortable, maybe a knock or two before the tournament to see where he’s at.

“He’s the captain and we treat him as such,” said Boucher.

Bavuma’s form is perhaps the biggest poser for Boucher going into the World Cup, but perhaps not. The coach has made it clear that he backs Bavuma and, on that basis, Boucher seems clear in his mind that nothing will change.

It might not be a popular stance if runs don’t come for Bavuma, but in some ways it’s a simple solution too. The coach backs his skipper and, for this campaign at least, the status quo will remain.

Of course, Boucher is leaving his post after the World Cup, so he doesn’t have to deal with the fallout if the campaign fails on something as obvious as backing a player short of confidence and runs. 

Different conditions

The Bavuma conundrum is certainly a big subplot as the World Cup looms, but looking back at the India series, the biggest takeaway will be the confidence gained by the likes of Rossouw, Quinton de Kock and Maharaj.

The conditions in which the series against India were played are different to what both sides can expect in Australia for the World Cup. The pitches, mostly, will be bouncier and faster in Australia and there will be less swing on offer.

Despite the disappointment of losing a series heading into the World Cup, the Proteas have actually built some momentum as they head to Australia.

South Africa face a qualifier in their opening match (Ireland or the West Indies are likely opponents) at Hobart on 24 October and follow that with a match against Bangladesh in Sydney three days later.

As a way of easing into the tournament, they could not have asked for a better draw.

Their third clash throws up India in Perth – on a pitch where the fast bowlers and the big hitters could come alive. That already looks like the seminal match for the Proteas if they hope to make the semifinals. DM168

South Africa squad: Temba Bavuma (captain), Quinton de Kock, Heinrich Klaasen, Reeza Hendricks, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Wayne Parnell, Kagiso Rabada, Rilee Rossouw, Tabraiz Shamsi, Tristan Stubbs, Marco Jansen.

Standby players: Bjorn Fortuin, Lizaad Williams, Andile Phehlukwayo.

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R25.