“Government has very little that it is able to do to stop this,” Professor of Vaccinology at Wits University, Shabir Madhi, said about the outbreak in one of two hotspots in South Africa. “The only place other than Nelson Mandela Bay that the hospital admissions data indicates as a hotspot is Mangaung in the Free State.” 

Hospitalisation data shows that the rest of the country was reasonably stable.

Madhi said any efforts to impose a lockdown on the district “will just damage more livelihoods. Any higher level of lockdown will be a futile exercise.

“It is almost a foregone conclusion that we are going to have a resurgence – the timing and magnitude will be measured by people’s behaviour. If people stop wearing face masks and ignore physical distancing the transmission of the virus will speed up. Handwashing remains very important. The virus has not disappeared from South Africa.” 

He said antibody tests done at HIV clinics and antenatal clinics in the Western Cape had confirmed that about one-third of the population was infected with the coronavirus the first time round.

“But this did not provide enough protection that the non-pharmaceutical interventions, like wearing masks and maintaining physical distance, could be dropped without a resurgence,” he said. 

The acting executive mayor for the metro, Thsonono Buyeye, said this week that while a harder lockdown was not ideal, the municipality may be compelled to enforce one to save people’s lives as there was no ward in the metro that did not have an active Covid-19 case.

A meeting with the provincial government’s joint command council was scheduled for Thursday, but Premier Oscar Mabuyane has tested positive for the virus. A former mayor of the Nelson Mandela Bay metro and mayoral member committee in charge of water and electricity, Mongameli Bobani, died of Covid-19 related complications on Wednesday.

Buyeye said that because many of the infections are linked to large social gatherings at drinking venues, they had requested the provincial command council to amend the curfew for Nelson Mandela Bay to 10pm, but he was still waiting for feedback.

The Eastern Cape Health Department’s district manager for Nelson Mandela Bay, Darlene de Vos, said the number of cases on Thursday was at 6,173.

“Given current rates of infection this number could double by next week,” said Andrew Muir, president of the Nelson Mandela Bay Business Chamber. 

“In fact, Nelson Mandela Bay and surrounds is Africa’s hotspot and accounts for almost 90% of the Covid-19 cases in the Eastern Cape.”

He implored residents to remain at home and called on businesses in the metro to return to a work-from-home arrangement with their employees.

“If it is not essential, do not go out and those who have comorbidities or fall within the vulnerable category should take extra precautions,” Muir said.

“The metro’s health care system is overstretched and is overflowing, with hospitals in the public and private sectors running at full capacity. 

“As a business community we undertook renovations at our public hospitals, creating 160 additional beds and we also got the field hospital established. However, this is not sufficient to deal with the current surge in Covid-19 numbers,” Muir said. 

“The current situation is bad and could get much worse than what we experienced during the first wave of the virus in June and July this year.

“The main cause of this current serious situation is the gathering of people at parties and also participation in other socialisation activities. 

“As businesses, we cannot afford to be complacent about following these very necessary measures, as high absenteeism impacts upon the continuity of business operations.”

“What is clear to us is that people in Nelson Mandela Bay and the Sarah Baartman District [the district includes large parts of the Karoo, Humansdorp, Jeffreys Bay and St Francis Bay] do not wear their masks. 

Dr Thobile Mbengashe, the former superintendent-general of the Eastern Cape Department of Health and now adviser to Premier Mabuyane, has been put in charge of coordinating the response to the outbreak in Nelson Mandela Bay.

“We have a three-week window to get this under control,” he said. 

Mbengashe said the first part of their plan was to get more people in the city to wear masks. 

“About 10 days ago we picked up that the numbers were changing in the wrong direction. We were not seeing similar numbers to Nelson Mandela Bay anywhere else in the province. Everyone was on Level 1, so we had to ask ourselves, what is happening here?”

“What is clear to us is that people in Nelson Mandela Bay and the Sarah Baartman District [the district includes large parts of the Karoo, Humansdorp, Jeffreys Bay and St Francis Bay] do not wear their masks. 

“We have about 80% compliance nationally but we need to coach the people from Nelson Mandela Bay to wear their masks. If we can get this number up to 95% then we have a chance of reducing the number of infections by 60% to 70%. It will require a behaviour change. We must push for better communication. 

“I want to add though, that we need to enforce wearing masks without people being locked up or harassed. We don’t want to make criminals out of people. What we need are firm but gentle nudges by law enforcement.” 

He said their data shows that about 11% of events in Nelson Mandela Bay were responsible for 80% of the infections.

“Our plan is to make sure that spaces are compliant.” He added that the instruction to law enforcement is a strict one: “If they don’t comply we will take their licence.” 

“We want to urge people to go outside. It is getting warmer now. There shouldn’t be big crowds in enclosed spaces.” 

Mbengashe said that instead of taking families into quarantine they will issue everyone with sufficient masks.

“When it comes to our health facilities, we have enough beds but we do not have enough staff. Our staff is exhausted. We are sending people to Nelson Mandela Bay from other parts of the province to come help.” 

He said they would coordinate bed availability between all the hospitals in the metro. 

“We currently have 728 patients, of which 627 are in the wards. The rest need high care or intensive care.” 

Mbengashe added that they were working with the South African Social Security Agency to ensure safer lines at grant payout points and at the Post Office where people are waiting in long lines for the R350 Covid-19 grant. DM/MC

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