BY-ELECTION SUPER WEDNESDAY
Northern Cape Preview: Big By-Election Showdown in Renosterberg, Zamani Saul’s hometown
This small municipality is the home of the second largest dam in South Africa, the Vanderkloof Dam. It is also the home municipality of Northern Cape Premier Zamani Saul, who hails from the town of Petrusville. Philipstown and Petrusville are known for their unique Karoo architecture as many of the homes in these two towns are still in their original state.
The political architecture of Renosterberg has also been left somewhat unchanged. In 2016 only two parties made it to council, the ANC and the DA, with the ANC getting four seats and the DA three. When one looks at the 2019 provincial results, this same result would have played itself out, the ANC would have “won” four seats here and the DA three.
The municipality was dissolved by the Northern Cape MEC for Cooperative Governance, Human Settlements and Traditional Affairs, Bentley Vass because of its continued dysfunctionality and lack of clear leadership. The DA saw the dissolution as an expedient cover up of corruption aimed at silencing ANC councillors who were willing to work with DA councillors to help uncover wrongdoing in the municipality.
Ward 1 (Philipstown) DA (57%) ANC (38%) EFF (4%)
Philipstown sits on the R48 road, which links De Aar and Petrusville, and on the R398 regional connecting the town with Hanover. The DA beat the ANC by 204 votes and by almost 20 percentage points in the town. However, in 2019 the ANC prevailed here in the ward, when one considers the provincial ballots, by 77 votes. This should be a very close race as the DA and ANC will need to turn out every one of their voters.
The DA and the ANC will also want to blunt respective losses to the VF+ and the EFF. The VF+ beat the EFF for third place here in 2019.
Ward 2 (Petrusville-Thembinkosi) ANC (65%) DA (31%) EFF (4%)
Petrusville is on the R48 regional road between Vanderkloof and Philipstown. The town is also connected to Colesberg by the R369. The ANC runs up the numbers in Thembinkosi. This is the voting district where it traditionally gets the most votes in the entire municipality. So Thembinkosi will not only be key to them carrying Ward 2 again, but also critical in their quest to win the municipality outright. The Uitsig part of Petrusville is more competitive and the DA will want to carry this voting district. The EFF, VF+ and an independent will also be participating in this contest.
Ward 3 (Vanderkloof Petrusville) in Renosterberg DA (48%) ANC (46%) EFF (3%) VF+ (3%)
The DA beat the ANC by a mere 22 votes in Ward 3 in 2016. The ANC will see this ward as a prime pickup opportunity, especially after they beat the DA by more than 180 votes in the ward when one considers the provincial ballots of the voting districts in the ward. The VF+ got 100 votes in this ward in 2019. In 2016, they got less than 30. If the VF+ is able to repeat what they did here in 2019, then it is unlikely that the DA will hold this ward. Another bit of good news for the ANC is that the EFF were unable to grow in this ward in 2019.
This ward includes the Green Point part of Petrusville and Vanderkloof. Vanderkloof Town Hall is where the DA won the ward in 2016. Even though it is the smallest voting district they were able to win 90% of the vote here. The ANC carried the voting districts in Green Point and the Keurtjieskloof part of Vanderkloof.
Ward 4 (Philipstown Petrusville Potfontein) in Renosterberg ANC (59%) DA (32%) EFF (7%)
This is the largest ward in Renosterberg which also has the lowest number of voters. The ward includes the Elukhanyisweni part of Philipstown, an ANC stronghold. This is the most vote-rich part of the ward. It includes the central part of Petrusville and farms around Potfontein. Potfontein is on the regional R388 which links Hopetown with De Aar.
A key factor in this ward is that the former ANC Mayor and Ward 4 councillor, Johannes Niklaas is running as an independent. If he is able to dent the ANC’s support in this ward, he could turn this into a three-horse race between him, the ANC and the DA. Will the fact that the ward has 3 distinct parts to it help or hinder Niklaas? The votes in this ward are wide spread and not in one uniform area. In 2016, 48% of the votes came via Elukhanyisweni, while 28% were cast in Philipstown and about 24% on the farms.
The ANC dominated Elukhanyisweni in 2016. This is also where the EFF got their best result in the municipality, garnering 7% of the vote in the district. The ANC also beat the DA by a margin of 2:1 in Petrusville. The DA won all five farming voting districts. If the DA stands any chance in a three-horse race, they need to ensure that they stem the flow of votes to the VF+ on these farms.
The 2019 results in Renosterberg suggest that the 4-3 breakdown between the ANC and the DA could well be re-established after the by-elections. Johannes Niklaas will be desperate to be the king maker in the municipality and get his mayoral chain returned to him, while the VF+ and the EFF will want to capitalise on the lack of service delivery in the municipality and the DA and ANC’s national struggles and win seats on the council. DM
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