For many governments around the world, the spread of Covid-19 comes at an awkward time. The rising levels of distrust in governments, the delegitimisation of political leaders, and the increase in the number of people who believe in conspiracy theories, such as the anti-vaccination movement, make implementing tough decisions difficult.

In the US, when President Donald Trump announced his travel ban, many people simply attacked him for the way in which it was delivered (it did come across as confusing, the details of the actions were lacking in the original announcement).

In South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa has had a very different reception. Speaking clearly on Sunday night, enunciating clear direct actions, and calling for unity, he probably achieved almost all that could be asked of a leader at a time of national and international crisis (apart from being on time…). Knowing that the disruption to society will be severe, and that the economy is expected to suffer dramatically, he still took the plunge to make an announcement that has not been seen here in the lifetimes of most South Africans (schools have not been shut in this way around the entire country in at least the last 50 years, and probably longer).

But, he was also careful to announce at the same time that the government will also publish a set of comprehensive proposals to help support the economy. While the Reserve Bank is now widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday, it is hard to know what those proposals might be. There is very little money left in the kitty, and the virus could well add to the costs of keeping some SoEs, such as SAA, running. That said, the fact that at least the economic impact was being clearly understood by the government is a signal that there is something in the works. 

Through all of the announcement on Sunday night, perhaps the most important factor was the identity of the person speaking. Despite widespread dissatisfaction with the government, despite the slowing economy and the frustration with corruption, there is clear evidence that Ramaphosa is popular. He has consistent approval ratings above 60% which must give him a sense of personal authority. Many people will believe what he says and take him seriously. 

It might have been a very different picture if his predecessor were at the podium, with all of the attendant scandal, loss of popularity and subsequent lack of authority. 

This could also be a boon for Ramaphosa. With the ability to appear before the nation as its leader, facing a crisis greater than almost any other outside of war time, he can now command the political stage. It would look disloyal to contradict him or his government during this time. And people who do may look foolish.

This explains the behaviour of political parties immediately after the announcement.

The ANC Secretary-General, Ace Magashule, held a press conference to confirm the party’s support for the government’s actions.

The DA’s interim leader John Steenhuisen said “we must put politics aside” during this time.

This left only the EFF to try to snipe at the government and criticise it for not moving earlier to implement these measures. That leaves the EFF open to the question of whether they might have opposed these measures if they had been implemented earlier.

All of this suggests that Ramaphosa’s big advantage is that this is a time for adults, for national leadership, not for petty politics. As such it gives him a big advantage and may well help him in the longer run in the ANC.

There is also a possibility that Ramaphosa is able to use this time to foster some kind of national unity, which has been noticeably absent from our politics. If he is able to try to give the impression that everyone must work together, and to get through this together, this could well make a very real difference to our politics in the longer run.

There is still a long way to go in this crisis. It is likely that the near excitement at these emergency measures will fall away within the next week. Some people will long for a normal life, while others will get frustrated and their inability to get enough food for them and their families (imagine a person who works as a car guard who is now not able to guard as many cars, or travel easily, and thus cannot get enough food every day). 

At the same time, if the number of new cases of the virus starts to fall (after it presumably goes up quite dramatically first), then there will be calls to ignore the current measures. It is during this phase of the crisis that Ramaphosa and his government might well be tested the most. Especially if Eskom implements load shedding at the same time.

Meanwhile, there could be some interesting consequences that flow from this both here and in other democracies.

One of the striking comparisons people have made over the last few weeks is that between China and Italy. China gives the impression of being able to bring the virus under control while Italy has been accused in some quarters of being unable to contain it. 

Obviously these are two very different societies; one is free and democratic and one is not. If it does turn out that democratic societies lose more people within them because of the virus and their inability to stop people from moving, there is a risk that some will claim they should be more authoritarian. In other words, they will say more people should act like Russia’s Vladimir Putin or Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame. 

However, it is also possible that something very different happens.

Over the last 20 years the growing inequality in these countries, particularly in the US and Europe, has led to a rise in populism. There are leaders who use cultural issues as wedge issues, to divide people and thus please their constituencies. This was neatly summarised by former US President Barack Obama as being issues around “God, gays and guns”. It is this kind of situation that has led to people who claim to be evangelical Christians standing behind the likes of Donald Trump.

It may now be that this virus increases the support for people who are seen as more sober and better able to make proper governance decisions. In other words, people might be more attracted to a figure such as Germany’s Angela Merkel than to Trump. In the US, this might strengthen the appeal of a “moderate” such as Joe Biden compared to a “radical” such as Bernie Sanders.

South Africa, and the world, has not faced a situation quite like this. But, for the first time, governments around the world, including ours, have the ability to stop a virus like this from spreading, and to treat those affected by it. All the parts of our society will now be tested,  particularly our leadership. DM