• Industrial output rose 4.4% from a year earlier, versus a median estimate of 5.2%. Retail sales expanded by 7.5%, compared to a projected 7.9% increase. Fixed-asset investment slowed to 5.5% in the first eight months, versus a forecast 5.7%

Key Insights

• The industrial output reading was the lowest single-month figure since 2002, with only a combined Jan-Feb result in 2009 lower. China merges some statistics due to the Lunar New Year holiday
• The data form further evidence that policy makers’ efforts to brake the slowdown in the economy are falling behind, as the nation faces structural downward forces at home and the likelihood of yet-higher tariffs on exports to the U.S.
• The People’s Bank of China cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves this month to the lowest level since 2007, though is still holding off on cutting borrowing costs more broadly
• Negotiators from China and the U.S. plan to have two rounds of face-to-face negotiations in coming weeks. Both sides have taken steps to show goodwill, and U.S. officials are considering an interim deal to delay tariffs with China, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg
• “The low retail sales is particularly worrying,” said Raymond Yeung, chief Greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “To stabilize growth, the next few months will see more aggressive policy efforts.”