In just under 60 days, something that must be virtually without precedent may visit South Africa’s turbulent labour scene. Just as wage talks begin — in this case, in the platinum mining sector, a flashpoint of labour and community violence the past decade — the industry’s biggest union could legally vanish from the scene at the stroke of a pen.

That union, of course, is the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu), which the department of labour has threatened to deregister for regulatory transgressions, including failure to hold a timely national congress.

Amcu sees a naked political plot at play here. On Friday 6 April its president Joseph Mathunjwa lashed out during a typically rambling statement delivered at a press conference.

“We are more convinced than ever that it is a political attack on Amcu,” Mathunjwa said of the move. He said the ruling ANC was in bed with that old bugbear, “white monopoly capital”, and with their labour allies aimed to crush the vanguard union fighting it on behalf of the black working class.

The unfortunate thing for the department of labour is that Mathunjwa’s narrative of political victimisation does not sound far-fetched — even if Amcu does indeed have regulatory shortcomings. Its arch enemy in the shafts since its inception has been the ANC and Cosatu-aligned National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), which was forged in the crucible of the battle against apartheid by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

The current mines minister and ANC heavyweight Gwede Mantashe was also a previous NUM leader. Ramaphosa, of course, went on to become a fabulously rich tycoon with interests in mining, including a directorship at Lonmin, hit by an Amcu-led wildcat strike in 2012 that triggered the Marikana massacre. The ANC has almost written Mathunjwa’s script for him.

“While the labour department’s motivations may be pure, few will believe they are and its actions will be widely perceived as a hit job on behalf of government and Cosatu, and indirectly on behalf of capital,” said Francois Conradie, head of research at NKC African Economics, an economic and political consultancy. Julius Malema’s EFF, among others, has said the move is aimed at bolstering NUM because it is an ANC ally.

That said, Amcu has long been in the cross-hairs of regulators. Former labour registrar Johan Crouse told Daily Maverick that there had been red flags around Amcu as far back as 2013. He said that Mathunjwa is an employee of the union, not a card-carrying member who works for a mining or construction company, and that effectively makes him ineligible for the presidency.

“Mathunjwa cannot hold that position because he is not a member of the union, he is an employee of the union. He has never been a member of the union. The president’s position is reserved for members… It is not a genuine union as envisaged by the act,” he said.

Amcu may be able to rectify things before the deadline.

“Despite the fact that I believe there is some sort of political agenda, I am also of the view that from an administration and compliance point of view they are in the wrong. Their first priority should be to prevent what is obviously wrong because you have to comply with the act and your own constitution,” said Gideon du Plessis, the General Secretary of the trade union Solidarity, which represents mostly skilled workers.

“My advice would be, amend their constitution; they just need to do enough to convince a judge. I don’t think they will be deregistered at all,” he told Daily Maverick.

Mathunjwa said at Friday’s press conference that Amcu planned to hold a delayed national congress in September — one of the violations it has been cited for. He is conferring with his legal team and said he will meet on Tuesday with Registrar of Labour Relations Lehlohonolo Molefe to try to sort things out.

There have also been regulatory concerns in the past about the Chemical, Energy, Paper, Printing, Wood and Allied Workers’ Union (CEPPWAWU), which is Cosatu-aligned. When Crouse was registrar he launched a process to have the union deregistered, but was thwarted by labour minister Mildred Oliphant, who had him removed. Crouse was eventually reinstated after a lengthy court battle, but had reached retirement age by then.

“In my view, the shenanigans at CEPPWAWU are worse than those at Amcu… This tells me there is a political agenda,” said Solidarity’s Du Plessis.

Mathunjwa warmed to this theme on Friday.

“The registrar is inconsistent and unduly interfering in the affairs of Amcu. The inconsistency of the registrar when it comes to the deregistration of trade unions leaves a lot to be desired. There are numerous examples of trade unions and trade union federations who have contravened many prescriptions, including financial submissions. They were never deregistered or threatened with cancellation of registration,” he said.

If Amcu is disbanded, there are a number of plausible scenarios, all ugly. The assumption may be that the NUM will fill the vacuum, regaining the tens of thousands of members it lost on the platinum belt and gold fields and finally winning what has been an arduous and bloody turf war. According to this narrative, Amcu is in a much-weakened position after its five-month strike in Sibanye-Stillwater’s gold shafts achieved nothing — it was forced to accept an offer that rival unions had signed. The time to dislodge it is ripe.

Amcu’s rank and file and more militant members may not see it that way. One of its main planks of support has long been rock-drill operators from the old Transkei. These guys are not sissies and they have also displayed contempt for their traditional leaders — a key ANC base.

Amcu in part swept the platinum belt on a swelling wave of resentment against NUM’s leadership, which was seen as too close to the mine bosses — something NUM has always denied — and the ANC, which is undeniable.

A fresh eruption of violent unrest is entirely possible. That, in turn, could have serious consequences for the platinum industry, much of which has recently returned to profit, and Ramaphosa’s investment drive. Investors hate uncertainty, and there is a lot of that right now around South Africa’s volatile labour and political environment. DM