In a year packed with elections across Africa, Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy and most populous country, will head to the polls on 25 February to elect its president.

The contest has been widely dubbed a three-horse race between the candidates of the two main political parties, Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party’s (LP’s) Peter Obi, who was recently tipped as the next president in a poll conducted by Bloomberg.

The 70-year-old Tinubu served as governor of the commercial capital, Lagos state, between 1999 and 2007. He has since emerged as a political godfather, not only shaping politics in his immediate sphere of influence (South West) but also at the national level, evident in his remarkable role in the emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari.

This prompted him to adopt the campaign slogan “Emi Lokan” — It is my turn — invoking a sense of entitlement to Aso Rock (the Nigerian seat of power). He has promised to continue some of Buhari’s policies, including investing in public infrastructure, and pledged to ensure stronger central bank intervention in the economy and increase military spending.

However, his campaign has been marred by allegations of poor health and corruption, with his detractors citing these as his main reason for avoiding participating in presidential debates.

The 76-year-old Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president during Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration, has contested and lost five times (including primary elections) since 1993. He has vowed to privatise the state-owned oil company, oversee a stronger private sector in the economy and invest in military hardware.

However, like Tinubu, his campaign has been tainted by accusations of corruption and nepotism. 

Visit Daily Maverick’s home page for more news, analysis and investigations

The 61-year-old Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra state and the only Christian among the frontrunners, has been endorsed by Obasanjo. Obi relies on his strong social media presence which he has deployed effectively to capture the imagination of many of the youth.

He has pledged to strengthen power generation, diversify the economy — which currently relies heavily on oil — and provide more funding for the military. While some associate him with integrity, his critics are of the view that he does not have the wherewithal to compete with the other two main candidates.    

Grappling with an uphill task

Given the internal and external challenges that have characterised the Buhari era, including insecurity, corruption, high levels of unemployment and Nigeria’s declining influence in international affairs, the next administration will have to grapple with the uphill task of strengthening democracy and enhancing the country’s international stature.  

Currently, Nigeria is pulled in different directions by diverse forms of insecurity such as Boko Haram terrorism, herder-farmer conflict, the Niger Delta crisis and banditry.

In the 2022 Global Peace Index, which measures the global state of peace, it ranked 37th out of 44 African states and 143rd out of 163 countries surveyed globally.

A 2022 survey by Afrobarometer highlights that almost 89% of its citizens felt that Nigeria was heading in the wrong direction and 77% were dissatisfied with the state of democracy in the country. The most common challenges identified include poor management of the economy, high levels of unemployment and poverty, poor infrastructure, and high levels of crime and insecurity.

Similarly, a November 2022 survey by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that 133 million Nigerians (63% of the population) are multidimensionally poor as a result of a lack of access to basic services such as healthcare and education.

NBS data also show that the unemployment rate in the country stands at 33.3%. Of grave concern is the fact that the unemployment rate among the youth stands at 42.5%. This is complicated by the debt burden (both domestic and external), which rose to N44.06 trillion ($101.91-billion) by the third quarter of 2022. While Nigeria is sometimes dubbed the “Giant of Africa”, these are clear signs of a crippled giant.

As an important exporter of democracy to other African countries, Nigeria’s domestic performance is critical to its capacity to deploy its norm entrepreneurship to promote democracy abroad. Indeed, it has promoted democracy in states such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Niger, Mali, Togo, Ivory Coast, São Tomé and Príncipe, and The Gambia.

However, the state does not fare well in promoting “good governance” in its domestic politics. This is evident in Nigeria’s poor performance in the major indices that measure democratic values and “good governance”, including Freedom House, the Democracy Index, Mo Ibrahim Governance Index, the Transparency Corruption Perception Index and the Economist Democracy Index.

This suggests that the country does not have the moral authority to promote democracy on the continent. It is complicated by the fact that the resources that are critical to promoting its foreign policy objectives, including democracy promotion and peacemaking, are increasingly being diverted to domestic imperatives given the country’s pervasive insecurity and economic challenges.

Indeed, Nigeria has had to cut its peacemaking budget, which often dovetails with democracy promotion in conflict zones. Its contribution of troops to United Nations peacekeeping missions has been significantly reduced in light of the fight against Boko Haram. This has greatly undermined Nigeria’s regional and global influence.

Nevertheless, the country’s fate is intrinsically linked to that of the African continent. Despite its challenges, the size of its economy, population and military as well as the popularity and influence of its cultural and ideational power dictate that the results of this election will have a significant impact on Africa and further afield. DM