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Just one more sleep until election day on 4 November! Daily Maverick’s editor-in-chief, Jillian Green, wants you to get out to vote. To start, we have this excellent video to help you in the booth, and then an update on polls and Julius Malema’s change of heart.

Here are five things to know today.

The ballot papers will be super long and there are no mayoral candidate images as we don’t directly elect mayors (A pity and a democratic flaw. Fer). Please watch the video – it is so helpful.

Watch — Voting 101 with Rebecca Davis

Think you’re ready to vote? Explore our election hub, build your own coalition and see what it takes to govern.

Daryl Swanepoel of the Inclusive Society Institute sent out a really interesting release on Sunday night. Here it is: 

The latest Ipsos Khayabus poll suggests the ANC’s lead over the DA could be as narrow as 2.2 percentage points among registered voters, according to an analysis by the institute. This compares with a 3.65-point gap among all eligible voters.

Here are the key findings:

• A much closer race: Among registered voters, the ANC has 29.96% support against the DA’s 27.76%. Among all eligible voters, the figures are 27.42% and 23.77% respectively.

• The other parties: MK polls at 11.75%, the EFF at 9.89%, ActionSA at 4.45%, the IFP at 4.06% and the PA at 1.80% among registered voters.

• Turnout is critical: The institute calculates that if 50% of DA supporters vote, turnout among ANC supporters would need to be about 3.7 percentage points lower for the parties to draw level. This is an illustration, not a forecast.

• History matters: Turnout fell from 66.05% in the 2019 national elections to 45.86% in the 2021 municipal elections.

The bottom line: The narrower gap reflects the difference between eligible and registered voters, not a shift in party support over time. The institute argues that getting supporters to the polls on 4 November will be crucial.

The Ipsos survey interviewed 3,600 South Africans between 12 September and 13 October, including 2,533 registered voters. Do remember that polls are a snapshot in time. Although this survey includes a sample of registered voters intended to represent the wider electorate, it is still based on the responses of a relatively small number of people, rather than every voter.

(We used Gemini to summarise the statement. An editor checked before and after.)

If the latest figures are credible, the DA has the momentum in the metros and the ANC has fallen even further back in September and early October. Paul Berkowitz crunches the numbers.

Five national polls show DA building momentum in the metros

The electoral stump can change minds. The EFF is a pugnacious party that holds significant appeal for young people. Its potential voting pool is not enthused by elections because democracy is not sufficiently substantive for them. A series of polls shows its support is stagnant, which may explain the change of heart. Polls are snapshots in time and proxies of what may happen. By Friday, 6 November we should have a good sense of where things are at. Siyabonga Goni reports on Malema’s new call.

‘We never called for literal killing’ — Malema appeals for farm killings to stop

DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis, speaking at the party’s final rally, said the race is turning into a two-horse contest between it and the ANC. The ANC disagrees, claiming that it will reclaim its majority. 

“This is a two-horse race for first place in South Africa – the ANC or the DA. And we are going for first place, because we know that is what’s needed to fix our country,” Hill-Lewis said. “Let us make this election the beginning of a journey to a DA-led national government in 2029.”

Ramaphosa admits shortcomings, Hill-Lewis woos Mamelodi, Malema condemns murder while Zuma revenge-rants

Speaking in the Eastern Cape, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said potholes could be attributed to climate change, which brought increased rainfall and affected road surfacing. “Potholes will be there because we live in a situation of climate change. There are rains, and water on the streets (and they) get washed away.” (Ja, né. Fer)

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