Ramaphosa should fire Motshekga and all of SANDF top brass for Iran fiasco, say experts

Defence Minister Angie Motshekga, SA National Defence Force (SANDF) chief General Rudzani Maphwanya, SANDF chief of joint operations Lieutenant General Siphiwe Lucky Sangweni and SA Navy chief Vice-Admiral Monde Lobese should all be fired for last week’s fiasco when Iranian navy ships participated in the joint naval exercise Will for Peace 2026 off Simon’s Town despite President Cyril Ramaphosa having ordered their withdrawal, say military experts.

They believe that Lobese should not take the rap on his own, as a report in the Sunday Times suggests he might.

On Friday, Motshekga announced she was appointing a board of inquiry into the incident. The board would have to report back in seven days about why Ramaphosa’s instructions — which she said were “clearly communicated to all parties concerned, agreed upon, and to be implemented and adhered to as such” — were not obeyed.

Read more: Motshekga orders inquiry into why Ramaphosa’s orders to withdraw Iranian warships from exercise weren’t obeyed

Russia, China, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and Iran actively participated in the exercise, from 9 to 16 January, with some other nations of the BRICS+ group observing.

On 9 January, Ramaphosa ordered Iran’s withdrawal from the exercise after being alerted by the US embassy about how badly Iran’s participation would be viewed in Washington, at a time when Tehran was brutally suppressing protests and legislation to renew the Agoa trade agreement was going through Congress. However, the three Iranian vessels — a corvette and two support ships — continued to participate in the exercise through to the end.

“With regard to [Vice-]Admiral Lobese, it would be unjust and inaccurate to lay the blame for this entirely on his shoulders, while leaving the minister of defence, chief of the SANDF and chief of joint operations unscathed,” said Darren Olivier, director at the African Defence Review.

He said that in exercises or operations of this nature, service chiefs like Lobese no longer had direct command of the forces they committed. At the start of the exercise, these forces and equipment were transferred to the command of the chief of joint operations, and only handed back once their part in the exercise or operation is completed.

“While Lobese did still have options available to him once he became aware the order was not being followed, he does not have primary responsibility,” said Olivier.

Amid suggestions that the military had “gone rogue” in this case, Olivier said, “In any democracy, absolute civilian control of the military is a non-negotiable, and the president has the authority to, at any time, remove senior generals or admirals if he has lost trust in them. In order to definitively reassert that authority and set an example, Ramaphosa should relieve all involved of duty and replace them.”

Independent military analyst Helmoed Heitman agreed. “I think the decision would have rested with the chief of joint operations (CJOPS) as they are the body responsible for all joint and combined operations and exercises. The services only provide forces.

“Given the seriousness if it was disobedience, they could also come down on CJOPS and [the chief of the SANDF] or, if there is a question about what was passed on by the minister, on to the secretary of defence or the minister.

“But the chief of the navy might be a tempting scapegoat, given his outspoken remarks a while ago,” said Heitman, referring to Lobese’s controversial public criticism in November of the Treasury for underfunding the navy. Lobese questioned whether those responsible for cutting the defence budget “may be directly or indirectly influenced” by criminal networks benefiting from weakened maritime surveillance.

Witch-hunt

Heitman said that too many questions about the exercise remained unanswered to be able to finger Lobese or conclude definitively that the SANDF had wilfully disobeyed an order.

“This is turning into a witch-hunt,” he said. He noted that Maphwanya’s controversial visit to Tehran last year — in which he made strong political statements supporting Iran — and the presence of the Iranian navy in Will for Peace last week were “not out of line with the demonstrated preference of government”.

He noted that the government had apparently originally approved the participation of Iran in the exercise. Then, the “government again woke up too late to how bad the timing was — which itself is a major lapse, given that the exercise was known about before the G20 jamboree.

“Then came a panic and a knee-jerk reaction. Taking all that together, I think what happened was simple imbecility, followed by panic, followed by bumbling at all levels,” said Heitman.

Olivier also commented on the remarks quoted by the Sunday Times of Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, that as a result of this incident, the government would make changes to ensure that the SANDF did not make decisions on its own about who should participate in such exercises.

“It’s deeply surprising that the Department of Defence (DoD) has, according to these quotes, been able decide on its own who to exercise with. That’s a break from longstanding practice, where even though the D0D took the lead in planning for upcoming exercises, each country submitted diplomatic notes through Dirco, which would then be discussed at an NOCPM session involving Dirco, the DoD and other departments.

“Although NOCPM stands for the National Office for the Coordination of Peace Missions, and was originally set up for South Africa’s participation in peacekeeping, over time it became the central coordination node for multinational exercises too.

“After that, a Cabinet memo would’ve been prepared and sent up to Cabinet via the minister of defence.

“If that process has broken down or stopped being followed, it needs to be rebuilt immediately. The DoD should never be allowed to take actions that can so massively influence South Africa’s foreign policy without the permission of Dirco.”

ActionSA’s chief whip, Lerato Ngobeni, said the board of inquiry announced by Motshekga was a “farcical process” and demanded a “genuinely independent process” led by Parliament to get to the truth of the incident and ensure those responsible were held accountable.

He said ActionSA believed that a capable and battle-ready defence force must be “grounded in a disciplined respect for the rule of law and the constitutional chain of command, upheld at every level, from senior military leadership to the executive”. DM