Dead maize under an orange sky, capturing the eerie silence of a once-thriving agriculture crippled by climate change. Background: iStock; Godzilla: Gemini AI After deluge cometh drought
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/sune-Karoo-drought-option-1.jpg "Illustrative image: The Actuarial Society of South Africa Climate Index, whose data dates from 1981, has shown spikes that have coincided with extreme and costly weather events. (Photo: Esa Alexander / The Times / Gallo Images)
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By Ed Stoddard. In January, the first firm signals emerged that southern Africa’s La Niña conditions were fading and could soon reverse. Ed Stoddard examined why the region needed to prepare for a possible shift towards drought, including the risks to agriculture and water security, and the delayed completion of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project. Read more.
Drought warning: El Niño on steroids is on the horizon
/file/attachments/orphans/P17edelnino_389086.jpg "Illustrative image. (Photos: iStock and Pixabay)")
By Ed Stoddard. As forecasting confidence increased, scientists warned the odds of a strong El Niño were rising, though Stoddard cautioned against some of the more alarmist “Super El Niño” headlines circulating at the time. The article weighed what a strong event could mean for SA’s crops, water security and economy, drawing on the historical record of past droughts. Read more.
US forecaster issues chilling El Niño warning with 82% chance by July
By Ed Stoddard. The US Climate Prediction Center sharply raised its El Niño probability to 82%, up from 61% the month before. Stoddard explains why the timing was especially concerning for southern Africa, with surging fuel and fertiliser costs from the Iran conflict threatening to compound the effects of drought. Read more.
History suggests a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño could be on our doorstep
/file/attachments/2992/P4EdStoddardelnino_411242.jpg "Dead maize under an orange sky, capturing the eerie silence of a once-thriving agriculture crippled by climate change. Background: iStock; Godzilla: Gemini AI")
By Ed Stoddard. What happened during previous major El Niño events? This article examined the devastating droughts of 1982-83 and 2015-16, why scientists use the term “Godzilla”, and what history tells us about the risks facing southern Africa. Read more.
It’s here! Japanese Meteorological Agency says El Niño has emerged
/file/attachments/2992/04ED_190423_802177.jpg "Dry, cracked earth on 22 October 2019 at the Fika-Patso dam near QwaQwa, in the Free State. (Picture: Alaister Russell / The Sunday Times)")
By Ed Stoddard. The JMA became the first major weather service to officially declare El Niño had arrived, warning it could strengthen into a very strong event by year-end. But Stoddard also finds reasons for cautious optimism: a record 17.1-million-tonne maize harvest and dam levels above 90% in most provinces give SA a buffer – even as the Reserve Bank warns El Niño could push inflation above 6%. Read more.
UN launches unprecedented El Niño ‘anticipatory appeal’ as ‘Godzilla’ fears mount
/file/attachments/orphans/RC2YEV9JTFN8_466284.jpg "Turkana herd boys walk in search of water and pasture for their animals at the Lorengo village of Turkana North in Turkana county in Kenya on 19 July 2022. (Photo: Reuters / Monicah Mwangi)")
By Ed Stoddard. The UN’s World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organisation launched a first-of-its-kind $202-million appeal to protect nearly nine million people across 22 high-risk countries – including Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe – before an anticipated crisis hits. Stoddard also flags a less-discussed risk: the potential for El Niño-driven displacement to fuel renewed xenophobic tension in South Africa. Read more.
Why El Niño matters for South Africa
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. For southern Africa, it is often associated with below-average rainfall, drought, reduced crop yields and higher food prices, although every event is different. Daily Maverick will continue updating this page as the story develops. DM
