Joe Biden came into office thinking the Middle East wouldn’t be a top priority, but turmoil there has now become a central issue for his presidency and one that threatens his chances of reelection.

US-led efforts to deliver aid to Gaza’s trapped civilians over a new pier have struggled amid security problems, with trucks targeted by looters desperate to ease what the United Nations says are near-starvation conditions.

Blinken says ICC arrest warrants on Israeli leaders ‘extremely wrongheaded’

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the decision by the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor to seek arrest warrants for Israeli leaders on charges of war crimes in Gaza “extremely wrongheaded”, echoing criticism levelled by President Joe Biden.

“The shameful equivalence implied between Hamas and the leadership of Israel, I think that only complicates the prospects for getting such an agreement” on a ceasefire and release of hostages, Blinken said on Tuesday at a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

He added that the administration was looking at “appropriate steps to take” on the prosecutor’s decision, without commenting further.

Read more: ICC seeks arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Hamas chiefs 

The top US diplomat was pressed by legislators over the White House’s engagement on the Israel-Hamas war. Blinken has been at the centre of Biden’s messaging struggles over the conflict, seeking to project Washington’s “ironclad” support for Israel while restraining its operations in Gaza to avoid further Palestinian civilian deaths and destruction.

Several Democratic senators focused on the humanitarian situation in Gaza and Israeli restrictions that have delayed aid deliveries, as well as the State Department’s recent assessment of Israel’s conduct in the war. Republicans pushed Blinken on the White House’s criticism of the Netanyahu government and its decision to pause a shipment of bombs.

“We have one weapon system that we have been holding back pending discussions with Israel about how and where it would be used,” Blinken said.

In a particularly heated exchange, Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas accused Biden and Blinken of effectively funding the 7 October Hamas attacks on Israel by releasing Iranian funds and allowing the country to sell increasing amounts of oil in defiance of US sanctions.

As has happened during several appearances by Biden and Cabinet members in recent months, Blinken’s testimony was repeatedly interrupted by protesters who accused him of complicity in the deaths of Palestinians in Gaza.

Also during the hearing, Blinken reiterated the administration’s support for a two-state solution.

“The Palestinians are not going anywhere, the Jews are not going anywhere,” Blinken said. “There has to be an accommodation. And there has to be an accommodation that respects and fulfils the rights of everyone concerned.”

The secretary has crisscrossed the Middle East since Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel, seeking to craft a plan for postwar Gaza and keep the conflict from spilling over as a ceasefire remains elusive. He has also sought to constrain Iran’s regional proxies — Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria — who’ve sought to capitalise on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Biden hurt abroad and at home by more Middle East tension

Joe Biden came into office thinking the Middle East wouldn’t be a top priority, but turmoil there has now become a central issue for his presidency and one that threatens his chances of reelection.

The sudden death of one key Middle East leader and the prospect that another may soon follow are the latest sign that any hopes the president may have had of resolving the current tensions, kicked off by Hamas’s 7 October attacks on Israel, are rapidly diminishing before the election in November.

Israel’s campaign in Gaza has opened fissures in Biden’s Democrat coalition and set back the administration’s hopes of landing a major diplomatic deal in the region. Now with Iran and maybe Saudi Arabia in leadership transition, the outlook is even more unstable.

The move by prosecutors at the International Criminal Court to indict Netanyahu for war crimes — a move Biden denounced as “outrageous” — only highlighted the tensions as efforts to reach a ceasefire have stalled.

The turmoil in the region consumes hours of Biden’s time every day, from meeting with top national security aides to frequent calls to leaders, according to a person familiar with the efforts who asked not to be identified discussing private matters. Biden has been personally involved in decisions on a deal with Saudi Arabia, the person said.

“This is not where the focus was going to be, but the Middle East has a way of imposing itself, and it has once again,” said Dennis Ross, who served as the White House Middle East envoy under President Bill Clinton and is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “This is an administration that basically was going to relegate the Middle East to a kind of secondary status.”

The death on Sunday in a helicopter crash of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, along with the country’s foreign minister and other officials, will kick off a new round of elections that looks to further entrench hardline leaders at the top of the country. Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, 88-year-old King Salman bin Abdulaziz is being treated for lung inflammation, which caused his son Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to postpone a trip to Japan.

The Biden administration came into office in January 2021 hoping to shift the US’s foreign policy focus from the Middle East to competition with China. As recently as last fall, his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, wrote an essay in Foreign Affairs magazine saying that the Middle East “is quieter than it has been in decades”. The version that went to press in early October cited Biden’s “disciplined” approach as one reason for de-escalation there.

Then Hamas attacked Israel and Israel responded with a devastating assault on the Gaza Strip. The US has been dragged into a proxy war with Iran, trading missile and drone attacks with militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. And last month, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time, prompting fears of a wider regional war.

Back home, Biden has faced increasing criticism from Democrats to reduce support for Israel, while former president Donald Trump and his supporters have portrayed him as weak. Protests across college campuses have descended into acrimony and violence. They’ve subsided somewhat with the end of the academic year but could resume in the fall — just weeks before the election — if the conflict continues, as now appears likely.

Biden is “in a situation where every choice is going to anger someone”, said Julian Zelizer, a historian at Princeton University.

One silver lining of sorts for the administration has been that oil prices have barely moved, allaying for the moment fears of higher petrol costs in a close election year.

Meanwhile, US-led efforts to deliver aid to Gaza’s trapped civilians over a new pier have struggled amid security problems, with trucks targeted by looters desperate to ease what the United Nations says are near-starvation conditions. DM