The Department of Minerals and Energy (DMRE) said in a statement on Sunday that the draft Gas Master Plan is a “policy instrument that seeks to ensure security of gas supply by diversifying supply options from both local and international markets. It outlines the role of natural gas in the context of energy mix and provides policy direction to the industry in South Africa.”

Read the draft here.

Gas is certainly a big issue in South Africa these days and is fuelling many concerns.

Top of the agenda are jitters about South Africa facing a natural gas Day Zero, as Sasol will stop supplying natural gas from Mozambique when its contract with the neighbouring country ends in June 2026.

Read more in Daily Maverick: SA has ‘four months’ to avoid a natural gas Day Zero as Sasol contract supply crisis looms

Another is the issue of the potential but still unproven reserves of shale gas in the Karoo, which is high on the radar screen of conservationists.

Then there is the role of gas in the green energy transition. It is cleaner than coal when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions, but that is setting the comparison bar pretty low.

South African industries as well as the green movement are broadly in agreement about the need to hasten the domestic energy transition to renewables, a process that is already well under way in the private sector.

In a developing economy such as South Africa’s, that may not exclude gas from the energy mix, and against that backdrop, the document will almost certainly attract a lot of public comment.

It must also be said that with a general election looming in a month, any policies drafted by the government are hardly set in stone. Indeed, they may prove politically to be hot air.

To wit, the draft master plan notes, “Energy security is fundamental to inclusive economic growth”, while adding the caveat that this must be achieved by “minimising the associated adverse environmental impact”.

The objectives of the plan include:

• Ensuring a diversified gas supply;
• Identifying strategic partners in the Southern African Development Community to “unlock local and regional gas demand”; and
• Fostering the infrastructure required to develop the gas sector.

Perplexingly, it refers to a 1998 white paper that now seems rather outdated and is perhaps of more use to historians than current policymakers.

The draft plan holds out hope for shale gas development in the Karoo, saying this would make South Africa “… a net exporter of natural gas with significant economic benefits”.

Pointedly, it acknowledges the very real possibility of looming shortages.

“To mitigate against gas supply shortages between 2026 and 2030, it is quite urgent to engage within the region to establish enablers that could unlock additional supply potential,” the draft plan says.

Areas where it is notably scant on detail include financing and responsibilities. This makes it seem like a very rough first draft and with the elections around the corner, a new government — quite probably a coalition, based on current polling — could decide on a completely different course.

That does not make the draft plan uninteresting. It certainly highlights how the current ANC government crafts policy without much thought given to financing — National Health Insurance being one of many prime examples — while underscoring Mantashe’s aversion to renewables.

The policy is in a draft stage currently and the public is welcome to comment on it. DM