European Union countries including Germany and France are increasingly blaming each other for failing to provide Ukraine with enough weapons, threatening to chip away at the bloc’s unity as Kyiv enters a crucial phase in the war. 

Belgium will provide Ukraine with €611-million in military aid this year, according to Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who discussed military assistance and developments on the front lines with his Belgian counterpart Ludivine Dedonder. 

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk pledged to help Ukraine obtain more weapons and ammunition during his first visit to Kyiv since his pro-Europe government took power last month. 

Russia blew past Saudi Arabia to become the biggest source of Chinese oil imports last year, highlighting the ineffectiveness of Western efforts to deprive the Kremlin of funds for its war in Ukraine. 

Russia moves to seize assets from critics of its war in Ukraine

Russian legislators want to confiscate the property of people who criticise the military invasion of Ukraine, intensifying the Kremlin’s crackdown on dissent against President Vladimir Putin.

Draft legislation submitted to the State Duma on Monday and backed by Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, a close Putin ally, will permit the seizure of property, money and other valuables belonging to those convicted of spreading “fake news” about the Russian army. 

“Everyone who tries to destroy Russia and betray it must suffer a deserved punishment and compensate for the damage caused to the country at the expense of their property,” Volodin said on the Duma’s website.  

People accused of “public calls to carry out activities directed against the security of the state” could also be stripped of their property, potentially threatening activists involved in protests. Anyone assisting international organisations that Russia has cut ties with could also be punished under the legislation that may be considered as soon as Wednesday. 

The measure adds to a law passed shortly after the February 2022 invasion that imposed prison terms and fines for “discrediting” the Russian army through “fake news”. Opponents of the war have been jailed or have fled into exile amid the harshest repression since the Soviet era in Russia.

Germany and France point fingers over Ukraine weapons deliveries

European Union countries including Germany and France are increasingly blaming each other for failing to provide Ukraine with enough weapons, threatening to chip away at the bloc’s unity as Kyiv enters a crucial phase in the war. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently urged allies to provide more funding and said that a failure to do so would benefit Putin and represent a threat to Western security.  

The bickering comes at an awkward moment for Ukraine as concern mounts that support for Kyiv is wavering, with more than $100-billion in US and EU funding held up amid political infighting. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron were expected to discuss the issue on Monday evening in Berlin.  

Germany is pushing the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, to compile an overview of member states’ planned financial and military aid to Ukraine, in what some see as a way to hold countries accountable for what they give, according to people familiar with the plans who spoke on the condition of anonymity. 

Talks of the German-led audit, which aims to give Ukraine better visibility over the support it can expect this year, come ahead of an emergency summit on 1 February, when leaders will try to agree on a €50-billion aid package that Hungary blocked in December. 

European aid for Ukraine is becoming critical as US funding remains blocked in Congress and Kyiv could start suffering from shortfalls as early as March. A counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces last year failed to break through Russian lines, forcing Ukraine back on the defensive.

France has rebuffed accusations that its aid to Ukraine is lagging. In a radio interview with France Inter last week, French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu highlighted plans to deliver 40 Scalp long-range cruise missiles, in contrast with Germany, which won’t send its cruise missiles despite pleas from Kyiv.  

“Germany refuses to deliver Taurus missiles, the equivalent of the Scalp, which are real game-changers,” Lecornu said.

“I wouldn’t want to point fingers at some of our allies but we can also be proud of the fact that we have indeed delivered systems that are reliable,” he added, suggesting that other nations’ weapons don’t always work properly.  

Germany has earmarked €8-billion in bilateral support for Ukraine this year, while the Netherlands will give more than €2-billion. Some member states have yet to unveil any support packages. 

Belgium to give Ukraine €611m in military aid in 2024

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov discussed military assistance and developments on the front lines with Belgian counterpart Ludivine Dedonder by phone, Umerov said on Monday in a post on social media platform X.

The ministers discussed Belgium’s participation in the air force capability coalition, pilot training and the modernisation of Ukraine’s defence forces. Belgium will provide Ukraine with €611-million in military aid this year, according to Umerov.  

Drone attacks menace Russia’s key route for exporting oil

A new front opened in Russia’s war on Ukraine that highlights the vulnerability of oil exports from the nation’s western ports, after reports of drone attacks against facilities on the Baltic coast.

Last week, the first Ukrainian drone reached Russia’s Leningrad region, some 1,000km from the border. That aircraft was downed over the privately owned Petersburg Oil Terminal without causing damage, according to Russian authorities. 

A second drone attack on Sunday, which an official with knowledge of the matter said was organised by Ukraine’s secret services, was more disruptive. It caused a fire that shut down a Novatek gas-condensate plant in the port of Ust-Luga that supplied fuel to the Russian army, according to the official who spoke on condition of anonymity. 

The facility was also close to some of Russia’s most important oil export terminals. As the war in Ukraine again enters a phase of attrition targeting energy infrastructure, these attacks are worrying oil market watchers.

The Novatek plant attacked by a drone is close to oil export facilities.

“Regular attacks or heavier drones may disrupt Baltic port operations and cause reductions of export volumes,” said Sergey Vakulenko, an industry veteran who spent 10 years of his 25-year career as an executive at a Russian oil producer. If that happened, “Russia would not have many viable alternatives.”

Keeping Russia’s oil exports steady is crucial for the Kremlin, which receives some 30% of total budget revenues from the nation’s energy industry. The flow of petrodollars is helping to finance the war in Ukraine as it nears its third year, while also funding domestic spending in the run-up to presidential elections in March. 

A serious disruption to Baltic exports would also be felt around the world. Russia is a top-three global oil producer and the largest supplier to China last year. The crude market is already on heightened alert after attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and despite its support for Ukraine, the West has long been reluctant to see Russian oil taken off the global market because of the impact it would have on prices. 

“A halt in Baltic exports would be a major shock,” said Viktor Kurilov, senior oil markets analyst at consultant Rystad Energy.  

Poland’s Tusk promises aid in reset of frayed Ukraine ties

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk pledged to help Ukraine obtain more weapons and ammunition during his first visit to Kyiv since his pro-Europe government took power last month. 

Tusk, a former European Council president, has promised to rally flagging support for Kyiv among Western allies. The new premier is aiming to reset relations between the two neighbours after the previous Law & Justice administration imposed a unilateral ban on grain imports that quickly escalated into a political standoff. 

Speaking alongside President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, Tusk said Poland and Ukraine would soon complete talks for joint investments in arms production. The government in Warsaw would also seek financing to deliver more military equipment as the war enters its third year, he said.

“No one in Poland has any doubts about one thing: we need to support Ukraine with all available means in its fight against Russia,” Tusk said. “The coming months and years will be a military and logistical challenge for the entire free world.” 

Poland’s renewed support comes as more than $100-billion in US and European Union funding remains held up by political infighting. The EU has so far fallen short of a pledge to send Ukraine a million artillery shells, leaving Kyiv exposed as Russia increases war production domestically and forges arm deals with Iran and North Korea. 

Zelensky said he and Tusk had discussed the possibility of joint arms production. Ukraine would also receive a loan from Poland to expand weapons purchases, the president said in a post on Telegram. 

Hungary opposes revamping EU military fund for Ukraine 

Hungary opposes a bid within the European Union to create a new fund to ensure a more reliable way of delivering crucial military aid to Ukraine, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said.

The comments, following an EU meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday, confirmed Hungary’s continued obstructionism vis-à-vis Ukraine, which is trying to maintain Western support to fund its military campaign against Russia’s invasion. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán vetoed a €50-billion, four-year financial aid package to Ukraine at an EU summit last month.

Hungary doesn’t support revamping the current funding mechanism, known as the European Peace Facility, where member states are reimbursed for weapons they send Ukraine, Szijjarto said in a Facebook video post. The size of the facility has been expanded several times but decisions to allocate and disburse funds require unanimous backing from member states. 

Hungary, led by the most Russia-friendly government in the EU, has consistently rejected weapons deliveries to its eastern neighbour. It’s currently blocking the disbursement of the latest, €500-million tranche from the EPF.  

Russia becomes top China oil supplier for first time since 2018

Russia blew past Saudi Arabia to become the biggest source of Chinese oil imports last year, highlighting the ineffectiveness of Western efforts to deprive the Kremlin of funds for its war in Ukraine. 

The world’s biggest oil importer bought a record 107 million tonnes of crude from Russia in 2023, almost a quarter more than the year before, according to customs data released on Monday. That compared with just under 86 million tonnes from Saudi Arabia. It’s the first time Russia has been China’s No 1 supplier since 2018, and translates to around 2.15 million barrels a day.

Chinese refiners have been eagerly snapping up cut-price Russian crude, despite it being sold at levels above a $60 a barrel Western-imposed price cap.  

China’s oil imports from Russia last year were worth $60.6-billion, which equates to an average price of about $77 a barrel, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the customs data. 

North Korean missiles face reality check in Putin’s battles

North Korea’s new arsenal of ballistic missiles is set for their first real-world test on the battlefield in Ukraine. But based on the success of US interceptor systems in that conflict, Kim Jong-un may be worried.

Burning through his stockpiles as the war in Ukraine nears the two-year mark, Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned to Kim to provide short-range ballistic missiles and more than one million rounds of artillery. The North Korean missiles sent so far are similar in size and flight dynamics to Russia’s Iskander series, weapons experts have said. 

A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed that the US Patriot air defence system has so far been largely effective in countering Russia’s missiles. In June, when Russia tried to take out a Patriot battery protecting Kyiv, the system shot down all of the 34 Iskander and Kinzhal missiles Russia fired, said the CSIS. 

That’s a warning to Putin about the KN-23 and KN-24 missiles Kim is believed to be supplying. The systems are designed to be deployed quickly, manoeuvrable in flight and reliably hit targets with a degree of precision. That might not be enough. 

“The Patriot missile defence system should be able to intercept North Korea’s short-range ballistic missiles, given its effectiveness against Russian Iskanders,” said Shaan Shaikh, a fellow in the Missile Defense Project at the CSIS, a Washington-based think-tank.  

North Korea’s missiles are priced at about $5-million each, according to data compiled by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses and released in 2022 by South Korean legislator Shin Won-sik, but the costs to Kim have likely dropped since then as he ramped up production. 

That makes sales of the weapons a potentially significant driver of foreign revenue or crucial goods from abroad, something the sanctions-hit North Korean economy badly needs. Yet Kim’s isolated regime, which has long used suspect activity to generate hard cash, isn’t just providing the missiles to Putin for commercial reasons.  

The use of the North Korean missiles appears to be quite new, and data are likely sparse on their performance. Any information Kim can glean about his weaponry’s performance in real-world combat could also help his regime refine future designs and attack strategies. 

“Russia’s use of DPRK ballistic missiles in Ukraine also provides valuable technical and military insights to the DPRK,” the US State Department said in a joint statement this month that included about 50 countries, referring to North Korea by its formal name. DM