Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is seeking to convince Hungarian Premier Viktor Orbán to lift his opposition to the European Union’s support for Ukraine and to improve relations with President Volodymyr Zelensky. 

US President Joe Biden spoke with Speaker Mike Johnson as Congress struggles to reach a funding agreement to avert a partial government shutdown. Hard-line Republicans have insisted that money for government departments and agencies, as well as additional aid to Ukraine, be contingent on the administration implementing stricter controls at the US-Mexico border. 

Russia was on pace for a second year of record oil drilling in 2023, further evidence of the nation’s resilience to Western sanctions.  

Zelensky sees no pressure to freeze war as Putin presses on

Zelensky said he so far doesn’t feel pressure from his nation’s allies to reach a ceasefire with Russia as Vladimir Putin shows no signs of any willingness to stop the war. 

“The Russian president won’t calm down until he ruins Ukraine,” Zelensky said in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Wednesday at the start of a tour of the Baltic states.

With the war approaching its third year, Russia has resumed its large-scale missile attacks against Ukraine, targeting cities including the capital, Kyiv. Kremlin forces launched the strikes as political divisions in the US and the European Union have delayed the approval of $100-billion in vital aid to Ukraine. 

Zelensky spoke after signing contracts on military cooperation with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda. The two leaders also agreed to begin talks on bilateral security guarantees, commitments that Ukraine is seeking from its Western partners to help counter Russian aggression. 

The Ukrainian leader is also planning to visit the capitals of neighbouring Latvia and Estonia to discuss issues such as his country’s Nato integration and cooperation on electronic warfare and drones. 

Italy’s Meloni pushes Hungary’s Orbán to unlock Ukraine aid  

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is seeking to convince Hungarian Premier Viktor Orbán to lift his opposition to the European Union’s support for Ukraine and to improve relations with Zelensky. 

Movement on those issues could pave the way for Orbán’s Fidesz party to join the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists political party alongside Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice and the nationalist Sweden Democrats, among others, according to people familiar with the discussions. 

This would boost the pan-European ECR party ahead of the European elections this summer in which far-right groups are expected to make gains.

Orbán single-handedly blocked a €50-billion EU financial aid package for Ukraine last month, infuriating the bloc’s 26 other leaders and causing consternation in Kyiv, which is at a critical moment in its war as Western support seems less assured. EU ambassadors discussed the issue on Wednesday and leaders will try to break the deadlock at an emergency summit on 1 February. 

The talks underscore Meloni’s foreign policy ambitions as she seeks to carve out a role in the EU as a power broker. Failure to agree on financing for Ukraine would be a blow to Zelenksy’s war effort and would call into question the bloc’s ability to act in support of its fundamental interests. 

Meloni is also pushing Orbán to shift his approach on Ukraine’s EU membership aspirations and to reset relations with Kyiv as conditions for joining the ECR, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Discussions have taken place at various levels and no decision has been taken.  

Biden and Speaker Johnson talk ahead of government shutdown deadline

US President Joe Biden spoke with Speaker Mike Johnson as Congress struggles to reach a funding agreement to avert a partial government shutdown. 

Hardline Republicans have insisted that money for government departments and agencies, as well as additional aid to Ukraine, be contingent on the administration implementing stricter controls at the US-Mexico border. 

The dispute has imperilled a top-line budget agreement unveiled over the weekend by Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Johnson, during the Wednesday phone call, encouraged Biden “to use his executive authority to secure the southern border,” spokesperson Raj Shah said. A White House official confirmed the leaders spoke but did not detail their discussion. 

Congress has a 19 January deadline to pass a spending agreement before part of the federal government shuts down. More agencies would see their funding lapse if a bill is not signed into law by 2 February. 

Russia’s oil drilling boom proves Moscow’s resilience to Western sanctions

Russia was on pace for a second year of record oil drilling in 2023, further evidence of the nation’s resilience to Western sanctions. 

The boom in activity came alongside a recovery in both the volume and value of Russia’s oil exports, a stark illustration of how the country’s fossil fuel industry has been a crucial source of funds for Putin’s war in Ukraine, which is about to enter its third year. 

“Russia is substantially more independent in its oil-field services than generally appreciated,” said Ronald Smith, an oil and gas analyst at Moscow-based BCS Global Markets.

In the first 11 months of 2023, Russia drilled oil production wells with a total depth of 28,100km, according to industry data seen by Bloomberg. That’s on track to beat the previous year’s post-Soviet record.

The frenetic pace of drilling — amid fairly static production — also offers an indication of some long-term problems that may be building up for Russia’s oil sector as a result of Moscow’s international isolation. The industry is working harder to maintain output from its oldest wells, while new projects that would sustain production in the coming decades must adapt to the country’s changed circumstances. 

For 2023 as a whole, Russia’s production drilling is set to top 30,000km, according to analysts at intelligence firm Kpler and Moscow-based consultant Yakov & Partners. The increase comes despite Western countries’ pressure on the country’s energy industry, which is a key source of funds for the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. The sector has been the target of sanctions ranging from import bans and price caps to prohibitions on the export of technology.

Last year, the US sanctioned dozens of companies that produce drilling equipment and develop new production techniques, aiming “to limit Russia’s future extractive capabilities”. The European Union in 2022 imposed “comprehensive exports restriction on equipment, technology and services for the energy industry in Russia”. DM

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