In Kyiv, two people were left dead and at least 49 were wounded as a result of Russia’s latest assault, which left several districts of the capital without electricity or water, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram.

Air raid sirens could be heard across the country as the military sought to repel the barrage. Neighbouring Poland scrambled two pairs of F-16 jets earlier on Tuesday in response to Russia’s long-range targeting of Ukraine, the country’s operational command said on X.   

Russian missile strikes intensify aerial war with Ukraine

Ukraine said at least four people were killed in Russian missile strikes in the early hours of Tuesday that mainly targeted the country’s largest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv.

Another 92 people were wounded, though the casualties would have been in the hundreds if Ukraine’s partners hadn’t boosted the country’s air defences, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on social media platform X.

An exchange of aerial strikes has intensified in recent days as the Kremlin’s invasion approaches its third year and the ground conflict is mired in a stalemate, with neither Russia nor Ukraine able to make a significant breakthrough. 

Kyiv has pleaded with Western allies for more support to tilt the war in its favour. 

Attacks against Ukrainian cities flared up after a cruise missile claimed a large Russian landing ship at the eastern Crimean port of Feodosia last week. A deadly strike on Belgorod, a Russian city near the Ukrainian border, prompted warnings from President Vladimir Putin that more assaults would follow. 

The area was targeted again on Tuesday, shortly after Moscow’s forces sent almost 100 missiles toward Ukraine. Russia’s military claimed it downed 17 missiles over the Belgorod region, the Defence Ministry said on its Telegram channel. One person was killed and five injured, according to Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.

Meanwhile, two people were left dead in Kyiv and at least 49 were wounded as a result of Russia’s latest assault, which left several districts of the capital without electricity or water, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram.

Air raid sirens could be heard across the country as the military sought to repel the barrage. Neighbouring Poland scrambled two pairs of F-16 jets earlier on Tuesday in response to Russia’s long-range targeting of Ukraine, the country’s operational command said on X.   

The Russian Defence Ministry said it had targeted Ukraine’s defence industry facilities near Kyiv, according to the state-run Tass news service.

As was the case during a record year-end barrage, Russia fired a combination of various types of missiles from several directions, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said on Telegram. Ukraine downed 72 of the 99 missiles launched on Tuesday, he said.

As hostilities spiked, there was no immediate sign of the conflict approaching its endgame. Putin, who is facing an election in March, said on Monday that Russia doesn’t want to fight “endlessly” in Ukraine, but won’t give up its positions and is ready for peace only on its own terms.

The Russian Defence Ministry said an “emergency discharge of ordnance” from a warplane led to a village inside Russia being hit, according to Interfax. There were no casualties, but several buildings were damaged in the Voronezh region village of Petropavlovka, Governor Alexander Gusev said on Telegram. 

Ukraine downs almost all 90 drones in Russia’s New Year’s Eve raid

Ukraine repelled a drone attack on New Year’s Eve, shooting down 87 of 90 Russian unmanned aerial vehicles.

The strike targeted regions from southern Odesa on the Black Sea to central Kyiv and western Lviv near the Polish border, the Ukrainian air defence unit said. 

It followed Russia’s missile attacks over the weekend that killed at least 30 people in Ukraine. Moscow said it would seek revenge for a missile strike that killed at least 24 people, including children, in Belgorod. The Kremlin claims so-called cluster bombs were used in the attack, the deadliest on Russia since the war began.  

Since Putin’s invasion, Ukraine has intercepted 1,709 Russian missiles and 3,095 drones, almost 85% of those launched over the country, according to Oleshchuk. 

Ukraine expects to “receive Western aircraft, more aerial bombs and missiles of American, British and French production” this year, Oleshchuk said. 

“We are also waiting for new defence systems, capable of intercepting ballistic shells.”

Russian oil cargoes head away from India amid payment issues

Several vessels hauling crude from Russia that had been idling off India are now headed away from the country eastwards, amid concerns over oil payments to Moscow that spurred a slump in arrivals last month.

Five ships all carrying Sokol oil from Russia’s Far East are moving toward the Malacca Strait, according to vessel-tracking data. A sixth – the NS Century – also holding Sokol is still close to Sri Lanka.

“China seems to have stepped in to save the idling Sokol cargoes,” said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at data intelligence provider Kpler.

India’s oil imports from Russia — a vital outlet for Moscow amid the war in Ukraine — fell in December to their lowest since January 2023, with local refiners not receiving a single Sokol cargo due to payment issues, according to Kpler.

The US and its allies have imposed sanctions on entities deemed to have breached the $60-a-barrel cap on Russian crude exports, which came into effect late in 2022.

The NS Century — which hauls about 700,000 barrels — was sanctioned by the US Treasury last year. Four of the other vessels carry similar volumes, while the fifth, the Nellis, can hold twice as much. Most of the ships are owned by Russia’s state-backed shipping company, Sovcomflot PJSC.

Russia’s seaborne crude exports surge to end 2023 on a high

Russia’s seaborne crude exports ended the year on a high, as four-week average shipments climbed to the highest since early November and weekly flows jumped to the most since July.

About 3.46 million barrels a day of crude were shipped from Russian ports in the four weeks to 31 December, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg show. That was up by 230,000 barrels a day from the period to 24 December. The more volatile weekly average jumped by 560,000 barrels a day to 3.78 million.

Four-week average crude shipments were about 120,000 barrels a day below their May-June level — the baseline used by Moscow for the reduction in combined crude and product exports it has pledged to its partners in the OPEC+ group.

Russia has said it will deepen its oil export cuts to 500,000 barrels a day below the May-June average during the first quarter of 2024, after Saudi Arabia said it would prolong its unilateral one-million-barrel-a-day supply reduction and several other members of the OPEC+ group agreed to make further output curbs. 

China restores coal tariffs in threat to Russian exporters

China has restored import levies on coal from the beginning of the year, a move that could threaten Russian exporters dependent on the world’s largest market for the fuel.

The tariffs were removed in May 2022 to guard against supply risks after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine roiled global energy markets. That helped pave the way for record imports last year, which included an increased portion of Russian coal shunned by other buyers. Now, the policy has shifted to protecting China’s mining companies from the consequences of a glut after domestic output also rose to an all-time high.

Russia has become the number two shipper of coal to China and the long-term aim of the two countries is for annual supply to reach 100 million tons, a figure likely to be hit in 2023 once December’s imports are tallied. To maintain those volumes, Russian prices will have to fall.

Russia’s monthly coal sales to China have declined since peaking at more than 10 million tons in June as its shipments have become less competitive against other origins, a dynamic that will only worsen as taxes are reimposed. DM