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UKRAINE UPDATE: 29 DECEMBER 2023

Kyiv sounds budget alarm, requests urgent global donor meeting; US announces final aid package for the year

Kyiv sounds budget alarm, requests urgent global donor meeting; US announces final aid package for the year
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) speaks with Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov during their meeting in Moscow, Russia, 28 December 2023. (Photo: EPA-EFE / GAVRIIL GRIGOROV / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN)

Ukraine’s premier sounded the alarm over the country’s finances, requesting an emergency meeting with international donors as Kyiv confronts ‘exceptionally high uncertainty’ over its budget at the start of the year.

The Biden administration announced on Wednesday $250-million in weapons and equipment for Ukraine, its final package for the year, as officials press Congress to renew aid in the new year.  

The head of Russia’s Rostec said its arms unit had boosted the output of tanks and armoured vehicles for the military as the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine approaches its third year.

Russia has sufficient budget funds to pay for its war in Ukraine, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

Ukraine sounds alarm over finances

Ukraine’s premier sounded the alarm over the country’s finances, requesting an emergency meeting with international donors as Kyiv confronts “exceptionally high uncertainty” over its budget at the start of the year. 

In a letter to a key coordination group overseeing funds, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said financing was needed next month and should be channelled to Ukraine’s core budget needs. The message reinforces Ukrainian pleas with more than $110-billion in financial aid being held up by political infighting in the US and the European Union. 

“To uphold macroeconomic stability, it is imperative that we receive sufficient, prompt, and predictable external financing, beginning January 2024,” Shmyhal said in a letter sent this month to the Multi-Agency Donor Coordination Panel (MDCP) and seen by Bloomberg News. 

The sense of urgency is mounting in Kyiv as Russian President Vladimir Putin exploits wavering support among Ukraine’s allies and a 2023 counteroffensive that failed to achieve its aims. Ukraine’s Finance Ministry last week said financing needs for 2024 stand at $37.3-billion, after receiving more than $42-billion in foreign aid in 2023. 

The prime minister said the MDCP, which was set up by Group of Seven leaders in December 2022 to coordinate international funding, should focus on immediate budget needs — keeping the government running with payments for teachers, civil servants and pensions — rather than its longer-term mandate to coordinate resources for reconstruction and economic recovery from the war.  

“It is hardly possible to hold any discussion about recovery and rebuilding projects, when we struggle fulfilling the 2024 survival priorities,” Shmyhal said in the letter. Donors should hold a meeting in January ahead of a scheduled meeting the following month, he said. 

“We cannot wait till March to finance our social needs,” the premier said. Ukraine’s budget may be hit by shortfalls as early as the first two months of next year, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said earlier this month.  

It was unclear how recipients responded to the letter or whether they agreed to a meeting sooner. 

US legislators this month abandoned efforts to reach a deal for more than $60-billion in funding for Ukraine before leaving Washington for the holiday break. The assistance is being held up by Republican lawmakers demanding more restrictive border and immigration policies. 

An EU package worth €50-billion for Ukraine was blocked by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán this month, sending the debate into early next year.   

Germany expects EU deal on Ukraine aid, even without Hungary 

Germany expects European Union member states to pass their next Ukraine support package either way, even if Hungary should continue to block a unanimous decision.

EU leaders have been looking for ways to get around Budapest’s intransigence after talks over the €50-billion package for the government in Kyiv broke down at a summit in mid-December.

A potential backup option that has been floated is having member states funnel money to Kyiv outside of the EU budget process, an option Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán signalled may be viable.

The proposal would involve national guarantees from member states to raise funding in the markets should Hungary continue to block the review of the EU’s long-term budget at an extraordinary summit on 1 February.

Speaking at a regular government news conference in Berlin, Foreign Ministry spokesman Christian Wagner said Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government would provide military support for Ukraine worth €8-billion in 2024 and Berlin would continue to “campaign vigorously” for the adoption of the bigger EU aid package worth €50-billion early next year. 

US provides $250m in Ukraine arms in last package for the year

The Biden administration announced on Wednesday $250-million in weapons and equipment for Ukraine, its final package for the year, as officials press Congress to renew aid in the new year. 

“Our assistance has been critical to supporting our Ukrainian partners as they defend their country and their freedom against Russia’s aggression,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. “It is imperative that Congress act swiftly, as soon as possible, to advance our national security interests by helping Ukraine defend itself and secure its future.”

The package, drawn from Pentagon stocks, includes ammunition for artillery and air defence systems as well as anti-armour munitions and more than 15 million rounds of small arms ammunition. The Defense Department said in a press release that Javelin anti-tank systems and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles would be among the weapons offered. 

According to the administration, the US has provided about $44.3-billion in military assistance since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  

Rostec chief tells Putin Russia is boosting tanks output for war

The head of Russia’s Rostec said its arms unit had boosted the output of tanks and armoured vehicles for the military as the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine approaches its third year.

Tank production increased seven-fold in two years, Rostec Chief Executive Officer Sergey Chemezov told Putin on Thursday in televised comments, without giving figures. 

Output of armoured vehicles grew more than fivefold, and production of ammunition ranging from small arms to artillery shells grew as much as 50 times, said Chemezov, who’s under US and European sanctions for his role in the war.

Russia plans a sharp increase in defence spending next year to 10.8 trillion roubles ($119.8-billion), up by almost 70% compared with this year.  

Russia has enough budget funds to pay for war – finance minister 

Russia has sufficient budget funds to pay for its war in Ukraine, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

“The Finance Ministry provided all the funds required for the main tasks” of the military, Siluanov told reporters in a briefing on Wednesday. “All the needs of our armed forces for their tasks in the special military operation are provided with money.”  

Russian petroleum exports decline as diesel, naphtha flows ease

Russia’s oil-product exports dropped on a weekly basis, led by a slump in shipments of diesel, naphtha and fuel oil.

The more volatile weekly flows for the period through 24 December slipped to 2.5 million barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa. That was about 666,000 barrels down from the revised figure for the period to 17 December.

However, the four-week average climbed to the highest in more than seven months amid a ramp-up in oil processing at Russian refineries. Oil-product flows from the nation reached 2.6 million barrels a day in the four weeks to December 24, up by 157,000 barrels a day from the previous week. DM

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