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UKRAINE UPDATE: 18 DECEMBER 2023

Russian defence downs dozens of drones; Biden progresses on US border policy talks linked to Kyiv aid

Russian defence downs dozens of drones; Biden progresses on US border policy talks linked to Kyiv aid
Russian President Vladimir Putin talks during the 21th Congress of the United Russia Party on 17 December 2023 in Moscow, Russia. (Photo: Contributor / Getty Images)

Russia said its air defence took down almost 40 Ukrainian drones overnight, chiefly over Crimea, in one of the heaviest attacks in months.

Two senators said negotiations on US border security were moving forward as Republicans demand more restrictive policies in exchange for clearing assistance to Ukraine and other US allies.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia has no intention of attacking Nato countries, describing as “complete nonsense” claims by US President Joe Biden that Moscow poses a threat to members of the defence alliance.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked the European Union’s planned financial aid package for Ukraine, sending the debate into early next year as the EU struggles to counter concerns that Western support is faltering.

US ‘making progress’ on border policy linked to Ukraine aid

Two senators said negotiations on US border security were moving forward as Republicans demand more restrictive policies in exchange for clearing assistance to Ukraine and other US allies.

“I talked to a couple of key negotiators yesterday and they feel like they’re making some progress,” Senator John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas, said on Fox News on Sunday. He described the negotiations as “very delicate and difficult”.

Negotiators met in Washington over the weekend after Majority Leader Chuck Schumer delayed the Senate’s holiday break to allow for a possible vote this week. That would increase pressure on the House, which has already left Washington until January, to act early next month.  

“They’re moving in a very positive way,” West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin said on CNN’s State of the Union. “They understand that the border is broken.”

With possible measures to curb migration across the border from Mexico dividing both parties, the two sides revealed little about the detailed state of play on Sunday. 

President Joe Biden has offered changes to US border policy and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas met with negotiators in recent days as part of a stepped-up engagement by the White House.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis has said the offer would give the president expanded authority to deport migrants once a certain number of undocumented migrants has crossed the border.

A key point of negotiation is the right to asylum, which advocates of tighter rules say is being abused by economic migrants entering the US.

Senator Lindsey Graham said “there is progress on asylum” in the talks on Capitol Hill, but cautioned that he doesn’t expect an agreement by 31 December. 

Russia says it shot down almost 40 Ukrainian drones overnight

Russia said its air defence took down almost 40 Ukrainian drones overnight, chiefly over Crimea, in one of the heaviest attacks in months. 

The Russian Defence Ministry reported 32 drones shot down over Crimea, the peninsula illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014. Six drones were shot down in the Kursk region and another in the Belgorod region, both to Ukraine’s north. 

The drone swarm was the largest since late November, when drones were launched by Ukraine across four Russian regions, including Moscow. In that instance, a source at Ukraine’s military intelligence said 35 drones were launched while Russia reported 24. 

Russia provided no reports on damage in Crimea from the overnight attacks. Unverified social media posts reported explosions at Russian military facilities in Crimea. 

Kursk Region Governor Roman Starovoyt said on a Telegram post that two districts were attacked, with no injuries reported. 

Power supplies to one of the facilities of iron-ore producer Mikhailovsky were damaged but had been restored, according to the press service of Metalloinvest Holding. 

Several settlements were also shelled in the Belgorod region, which directly borders Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on Telegram. There were no injuries. 

The drone strikes followed recent intense Russian attacks on Ukraine. Kremlin forces targeted several Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv and port infrastructure in the Danube area, over the past week.  

Ukraine said Russia fired a rarely used Kinzhal hypersonic missile on Thursday while Russian President Vladimir Putin was holding a media event in which he vowed to win the war. 

Ukraine’s air defence shot down 30 out of 31 Shahed drones targeting various parts of the country on Friday night, it said in a Telegram post on Saturday.    

Putin has no intention to attack Nato countries

Putin said Russia has no intention of attacking Nato countries, describing as “complete nonsense” claims by US President Joe Biden that Moscow posed a threat to members of the defence alliance. 

Biden told reporters this month that “if Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” as he urged lawmakers to release $61-billion in military aid to Kyiv held up in a dispute with Republicans over border security. 

“If he keeps going and then he attacks a Nato ally,” US forces would be obliged to defend the territory and there would be “American troops fighting Russian troops,” the president said.

Russia has “no reason or interest, either geopolitical, economic or military, to fight with Nato countries,” President Putin said in excerpts from a Russian state TV interview published Sunday on Telegram. “We have no territorial claims against each other, no desire to spoil relations with them. We are interested in developing relations with them.”

The comments appeared aimed at weakening the resolve of Ukraine’s US and European allies over continued support for Kyiv in defending itself against Russia’s unprovoked invasion. Putin repeatedly denied he planned to attack Ukraine prior to the February 2022 invasion, before triggering Europe’s worst conflict since World War 2. 

Russia’s Gazprom says gas flow to China set new daily record

Russia’s Gazprom said on Sunday it set a new daily record for gas deliveries to China on the previous day, underscoring the importance of its giant neighbour after it all but lost the European market over the war in Ukraine.

While it didn’t disclose the volume of gas sent to China, Gazprom said last week it was working to ramp up supplies to Beijing via the Power of Siberia pipeline. An addendum to the gas supply contract with China’s CNPC allowed the Russian state-owned company to increase flows from mid-November.   

Hungary vetoes Ukraine aid after EU backs membership talks

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked the European Union’s planned financial aid package for Ukraine, sending the debate into early next year as the EU struggles to counter concerns that Western support is faltering.

Kyiv notched a significant political victory when the EU unexpectedly agreed to open membership talks, but the success was overshadowed after talks over a €50-billion package broke down, even with 26 of the 27 members backing it.

The aid delay is likely to increase anxiety in Kyiv at a critical moment for the war-torn country. Ukraine’s counteroffensive, backed by billions in Western weapons and training, has made limited progress. And in the US, the House of Representatives went into a holiday recess this week after failing to approve President Joe Biden’s request for $61-billion in assistance to Ukraine. 

European leaders will be back in Brussels in late January or early February for an extra summit, European Council President Charles Michel said Friday, with leaders aiming to find a way to bring Orbán on board. 

The EU will also start looking for ways to get around Hungary’s intransigence. The backup options include carving out Hungary’s contribution to aid bound for Ukraine or having member states funnel money to Kyiv outside of the EU budget process. been asked to meet several additional conditions related to its membership bid. 

Kyiv can take some solace in the unexpected progress on membership talks. Prior to EU leaders meeting in Brussels, Orbán had opposed opening the accession process, saying Ukraine wasn’t ready and that the topic should be removed from the summit agenda. 

In the end, Orbán wasn’t in the room for the final vote on membership talks with Kyiv, according to two people familiar with the matter. It required unanimous approval of EU member states, and nobody objected to the decision, the people said. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suggested Orbán leave the room to allow the bloc to move forward for now, one person added.

Michel called the decision “a clear signal of hope for their people and for our continent” in a post on X. He said that EU leaders meeting in Brussels also agreed to open accession talks with Moldova, granted candidate status to Georgia and said negotiations could begin with Bosnia once it meets the criteria.

Orbán, for his part, confirmed he stayed away from the vote, blasting the decision as “senseless, irrational, wrong”.

The move is a somewhat symbolic one. The bloc won’t launch the more formal negotiating framework before March, when Ukraine has been asked to meet several additional conditions related to its membership bid.

Even with a green light from member states, the negotiations would still take years as the path to membership is lengthy and complicated. Croatia was the last country to join the bloc and its application lasted 10 years before it was formally accepted in 2013. DM

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