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UKRAINE UPDATE: 28 NOVEMBER 2023

Black Sea storm halts oil and grain shipments at key ports; fresh US aid ‘unlikely before 2024’ – intel chair

Black Sea storm halts oil and grain shipments at key ports; fresh US aid ‘unlikely before 2024’ – intel chair
House Intelligence Committee Chairperson Mike Turner. (Photo: Al Drago / Bloomberg)

A Black Sea storm halted loadings of crude and grains from key ports in Russia and Ukraine, and left more than a million people across the region without power.

New US aid for Ukraine and Israel will be difficult to pass before the end of the year, House Intelligence Committee Chairperson Mike Turner said, while Congress remains at odds over proposed changes to securing the southern border.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he planned to accept an invitation to attend an international security conference in the Nato member state of North Macedonia, if he’s able to get there given a European Union flight ban for his country.

Russia’s oil processing climbed to the highest since mid-August as refineries ended seasonal maintenance and the government relaxed fuel-export restrictions.

Black Sea storm cuts power to more than a million

A Black Sea storm halted loadings of crude and grains from key ports in Russia and Ukraine and left more than a million people across the region without power.

The oil terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium on Russia’s Black Sea coast and the nearby Novorossiysk facility temporarily stopped crude loadings because of the storm, their operators said in separate statements on Monday.

The storm has also affected the Kerch Strait, which connects the Sea of Azov with the Black Sea and is key for Russia’s grain exports.

The transhipment of cargoes was halted and a storm alert remained in place, Russia’s Federal River and Marine Transportation Agency said in a Telegram post. 

Shipments from Ukraine’s greater Odesa ports via the Black Sea were halted due to the weather, according to people in the sector familiar with the matter. 

Other areas of Ukraine and southern Russia were also affected. A total of about 1.2 million people remained without power in Russia’s Dagestan, Krasnodar and Rostov regions, as well as in Crimea and the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia that Russia occupies, Russian news wires reported, citing Deputy Energy Minister Evgeny Grabchak. 

Winds estimated to be as strong as 40 metres per second were expected to continue on Monday, forcing authorities in Russian-occupied Crimea to declare it a non-working day and leaving half a million people without power. Heavy snow also hit southern and central Ukraine. 

Ukraine said thousands of people had been affected.

Ukraine’s state emergency service reported that heavy snow had forced the closure of main roads in the southern Odesa and Mykolayiv regions. Some 2,046 towns and villages in Ukraine lost electricity, according to the national grid.

Israel, Ukraine aid unlikely before 2024, says GOP’s Turner

New US aid for Ukraine and Israel will be difficult to pass before the end of the year, House Intelligence Committee Chairperson Mike Turner said, while Congress remains at odds over proposed changes to securing the southern border.

“Congress is going to require that there’ll be laws changed to make certain that the border returns to its prior state,” the Ohio Republican said on NBC’s Meet the Press. That could include restricting the entry of asylum seekers across the Mexican border and other provisions to secure it, he said.

Congressional Republicans are seeking to link their approval for the foreign military assistance to stricter border policies after President Joe Biden signed a stopgap bill that extended US government funding into early next year.

“I think it would be very difficult to get it done by the end of the year and the impediment, currently, is the White House policy on the southern border,” Turner said. 

Read more: Speaker Johnson faces hard-right dismay, risking disarray ahead

Congress is returning to work this week with legislation for Israel and Ukraine on the agenda. Further complications would raise questions on whether Washington will continue to provide its allies with resources and weaponry.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a letter to colleagues that he planned to bring the national security package requested by the White House to the floor “as soon as December 4th”. 

Providing aid to Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific was “one of the most important tasks” to finish before year’s end, Schumer said, citing the need for “necessary military capabilities to confront and deter our adversaries and competitors”. 

The New York Democrat also said it was “critical” for Congress to provide humanitarian aid to Palestinian citizens.

The White House has requested roughly $4-billion in emergency funding to boost resources at the US border and counter the flow of fentanyl. Turner said that the proposal lacks policy changes sought by conservatives.

“In return for providing additional funding for Ukraine, we have to have significant and substantial reforms to our border policy,” Senator Tom Cotton said on Fox News Sunday. Asylum and parole changes were among the top policy concerns for conservatives, he said.

Russia’s Lavrov plans to join security conference in Nato member state

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he planned to accept an invitation to attend an international security conference in the Nato member state of North Macedonia, if he’s able to get there given a European Union flight ban for his country.

“If it works out, we’ll be there,” Lavrov said during a discussion panel in Moscow broadcast online on Monday.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is holding the 30 November to 1 December gathering of foreign ministers from its 57 member states in the North Macedonian capital, Skopje. The country, which holds the rotating chairmanship of the group, said it was prepared to temporarily lift a ban on aircraft from Russia to allow Lavrov to attend the talks. Lavrov said Bulgaria, an EU member, has also agreed to allow him to transit its territory. 

The OSCE was established to reduce tensions during the Cold War but its role has been in doubt since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into neighbouring Ukraine, provoking the worst conflict in Europe since World War 2. 

Russian oil refining rises as maintenance ends, fuel ban lifted

Russia’s oil processing climbed to the highest since mid-August as refineries ended seasonal maintenance and the government relaxed fuel-export restrictions.

The country processed 5.65 million barrels a day in the 16-22 November period, more than 100,000 barrels a day above the previous week, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Refining totalled 5.55 million barrels a day in the first 22 days of November, up by about 236,000 barrels compared with most of October, Bloomberg calculations based on historic data show.

Russia’s refineries are churning through crude as the government lifted temporary restrictions on exports of petrol and summer-grade diesel, giving them more incentive to produce the road fuels. Refining runs have also been boosted after seasonal maintenance was completed ahead of winter. 

While the country’s domestic processing has climbed, its seaborne oil exports fell to the lowest since August in the week to 19 November, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg show. Shipments were down by 580,000 barrels a day from the previous week, the biggest week-on-week drop in more than four months. 

Europe is guzzling diesel from India, a key buyer of Russian oil

Europe banned most oil shipments from Russia almost a year ago, but it’s binging on diesel that may well have been made from Russian crude.

The region’s imports of diesel from India, one of the biggest buyers of Russian crude, are on course to soar to 305,000 barrels a day, the most since at least January 2017, data from the market intelligence firm Kpler show.

While it’s not possible to say with certainty that the molecules originated in Russia — India also processes oil from elsewhere — Moscow’s deliveries have given Indian refineries the ability to produce abundant diesel and boost exports.

Arrivals into Europe in November include a rare shipment from Mumbai-based Nayara Energy, which imported almost 60% of its crude from Russia this year, according to Kpler. Reliance Industries, Europe’s top supplier of Indian diesel, draws more than a third of its crude from Russia, the figures show. DM

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