The Netherlands and Denmark last week got the go-ahead from the US to provide the planes to Kyiv once pilots have been trained, but the timing of any handover, and how many jets will be provided, remains in question.  

US officials have become gloomy about Ukraine’s counteroffensive strategy, weeks before the Biden administration will need to secure congressional approval for more funding, the Financial Times reported. The report echoed an assessment last week from the Washington Post, citing intelligence sources who weren’t identified.

Ukraine’s foreign minister pushed back in an interview with Germany’s Bild am Sonntag, urging patience and repeating a call for more weapons help from allies. “Our success will reward the optimists and ruin the reputation of the doubters,” Dmytro Kuleba said. “What we need, however, is more long-term capabilities to achieve more short-term results.”

Russia repelled a drone south of Moscow early on Sunday, the defence ministry said. A drone strike on the main railway station in Kursk in southern Russia, less than 160km from the Ukrainian border, damaged buildings and infrastructure. 

“The range of threats penetrating well inside Russia has increased,” the UK defence ministry said in an update, adding that Russia’s military was likely to be “under intense pressure” to improve air defences.

More than 60 buildings were damaged by Saturday’s Russian strike on Chernihiv in northern Ukraine, local officials said. Seven people were killed, including a six-year-old girl, and more than 100 injured when a suspected ballistic missile slammed into a theatre there.

Latest developments

• Putin turns to rouble and ballot to shore up shaken authority
• Third of Ukraine crop exports wiped out after Black Sea block
• Zelensky kicks off new round of allied defence talks in Sweden
• Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s Chernihiv kills seven
• Russia’s Luna-25 spacecraft destroyed as it crashes into Moon

Dutch pledge to send F-16s to Ukraine during Zelensky visit

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte pledged to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine during a surprise visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a major step by a crucial Kyiv ally to provide advanced weapons to fight off Russia’s invasion.

After receiving a required green light from the US to transfer the aircraft to another owner, Denmark and the Netherlands will send the fighters to Ukraine once pilots there have been trained to fly them, Rutte said.

“I cannot give the exact number, but we still have 42 in stock here in the Netherlands,” the Dutch premier said at a joint news conference with Zelensky on Sunday. When asked if Ukraine may get the jets as early as September, he said, “Not next month, that’s impossible. But hopefully soon after.”

Denmark and the Netherlands said on Friday they’d received a letter from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken giving them the go-ahead for deliveries.

Zelenskiy visited Sweden on Saturday to start a new round of talks with allies on weapons systems that could strengthen the country’s defences and boost a slow-moving offensive to take back land occupied by Russia.

He spoke with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson about the Nordic country’s Gripen fighter jet, and the leaders signed a statement of intent to cooperate on the production of CV90 combat vehicles. Ukraine’s pilots have started training flights on the Gripens, Zelensky said.

In the Netherlands, he said he preferred not to disclose the numbers of pilots in training for now.

Of the Netherlands’ 42 F-16 fighter jets, 24 are being used and couldn’t be sent to Ukraine until mid-2024. The Netherlands and Denmark have been leading the coalition to train the Ukrainian pilots.

Danish officials haven’t yet said when they might send the aircraft. The Nordic country has previously said it wants to hold on to its roughly 30 F-16 jets through 2024. The aircraft are being phased out as Denmark receives 27 new F-35 Joint Striker Fighters it has ordered from Lockheed Martin.

Rutte, who last month announced his decision to quit politics as the longest-serving premier of the Netherlands, vowed the abrupt collapse of his government would not change The Hague’s stance on Ukraine and the caretaker Cabinet would continue to support Kyiv in its military response to Russia’s invasion.

Putin turns to rouble and ballot to shore up shaken authority 

The rouble is slumping, the shock of a failed mutiny has yet to fade and the war in Ukraine has crossed the 18-month mark with no end in sight. 

Yet preparations are already under way for Vladimir Putin to secure a fifth term in March 2024 elections, even as anxiety about the future spreads among senior officials and business tycoons, according to four people close to the Kremlin.

The Bank of Russia’s emergency interest rate hike this week was not just a response to the latest fall in the rouble but part of a wider effort to subdue inflation before the vote, said one of the people and a second person close to the government.

Without the election to consider, the central bank may have waited for the next scheduled monetary policy meeting to take action. As it stands, it’s facing open pressure from Putin’s aides to stabilise the exchange rate and prevent any further erosion of real household incomes. 

The government is also working on a three-year budget plan that will offer pre-election sweeteners including additional stimulus measures that could contribute to inflation, one of the people said, adding to the urgency to get the rouble under control.

Though few see any immediate threat to his grip on power, Putin’s authority as a guarantor of stability has taken a big hit in the wake of the mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group that has acted as a military contractor for the state in Ukraine and elsewhere.

The Kremlin is looking to the election as an opportunity to present Putin as a leader who is fully supported and in control both at home and in his confrontation with the US and Nato allies. 

Though many countries have refused to join the US, European Union and allies in imposing sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s having to skip this week’s summit of BRICS leaders highlights his international isolation. An arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court has made it risky for the Russian leader to travel, even to friendly countries like South Africa. For nations that had looked to Moscow as a counterbalance to US power on the global stage, Putin is an increasingly problematic bet.

Many within the elite were astonished by his weak response to the mutiny and subsequent failure to punish Prigozhin, stirring unease among officials about the potential for high-level infighting or further challenges. Discontent over Russia’s failures on the battlefield is still simmering inside the security establishment. 

Notwithstanding the rouble’s troubles, Russia’s economy ended four quarters of contraction with a bigger growth spurt than forecast in the second quarter, expanding by 4.9%.

The turnaround is defying predictions of a prolonged slump in response to sanctions. Increased defence spending has boosted industrial production while consumer demand is gaining momentum due to social support and wage increases. All that puts the economy on track to return to its pre-war position as soon as next year, economists predict.

Russia’s Luna-25 spacecraft destroyed as it crashes into moon

Russia said its robotic spacecraft crashed while attempting to land near the moon’s south pole, failing in a race with India to become the first country to reach the region.

Luna-25 was meant to mark Moscow’s return to the moon nearly half a century after the last Soviet mission. The spacecraft spun into an uncontrolled orbit and “ceased to exist” when it collided with the moon’s surface, Russian space agency Roscosmos said on Sunday in a statement, citing preliminary results of an investigation.

Communication with the craft was lost on Saturday, Roscosmos said. 

Meanwhile, India’s Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft is orbiting the moon and is likely to attempt a landing near the pole this week.

Russian prosecutors file claim against billionaire Melnichenko

Russian prosecutors filed a lawsuit against sanctioned billionaire Andrey Melnichenko, as Putin increases pressure on wealthy Russians to repatriate their assets from abroad.

The claim against Melnichenko, founder of Russia’s biggest steam coal miner Suek and fertiliser maker EuroChem Group, was filed on 17 August in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk. It targets Melnichenko, Suek and two other companies, according to the filing on the court’s website, which didn’t provide further details.

Following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and sanctions that have hit the economy, the Russian president has slammed industrialists and other rich Russians who maintain wealth abroad and called for them to repatriate assets.

Last week, Putin asked the government and lobby groups to accelerate the transfer of businesses to Russian jurisdiction. While Suek is based in Russia, EuroChem, which isn’t involved in the case, is registered in Switzerland while holding major assets in Russia.

The case relates to energy assets that companies linked to him purchased in 2018 from businesses connected to former government minister Mikhail Abyzov, who was arrested and charged in 2019 in an alleged embezzlement case, the RBC newswire reported.

Worth an estimated $13-billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Melnichenko now resides in the United Arab Emirates after living in Europe for many years.

Third of Ukraine crop exports wiped out after Black Sea block 

The Kremlin’s efforts to paralyse Ukrainian food shipments are succeeding, with a third of the country’s crop exports wiped out since its Black Sea ports were effectively blocked last month.

The drop marks a significant setback for Ukraine’s economy and global food security, even with a €1-billion push by the European Union to build alternative routes since the start of Russia’s invasion. The US said this week it was working with European partners to keep grain exports flowing, relying on rivers like the Danube and other avenues after sea passage has become unsafe.

“The key question is the river ports,” said Evghenia Sleptsova, a senior economist at Oxford Economics. But ramping up volumes through those could prove difficult “now Russia started bombing Izmail and Reni”, two ports along the Danube which were attacked earlier this week.

Ukraine was only able to export 3.2 million tonnes of grains, vegetable oils and meals in the four weeks up to 15 August, down from 4.4 and 4.8 million tonnes in May and June when the Black Sea deal was still in place, according to estimates from analyst UkrAgroConsult. Crop stockpiles are now expected to swell through next year as better-than-expected harvests face fewer routes to market.

Russia’s own grain trade is benefiting from Ukraine’s weakness. Its crop exports are booming, and are expected to make up nearly a quarter of global wheat trade in the 2023-24 season. DM