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What by-election results signal for 2024

This week, independent election analyst Wayne Sussman, and Daily Maverick journalist Suné Payne, will be available online answering your live questions on the by-election results and what the results signal for 2024. Don’t miss the opportunity to ask them your burning questions. 



 

How can generative AI be used to better predict election results, and save democracy?

Wayne Sussman

Look at Brexit. The algorithms were right. Those in ivory towers were wrong. Predicting results is one thing. Saving democracy, not yet.
Suné Payne

AI can’t save democracy – that is the work of indidviduals, civil society and political parties who all need to work together. We can predict results, but we can’t be dependent on machines, etc, which have baises, to save a democracy that was and continues to be very hard-fought.
 

Clifford martin: Are you not being too “kind” to the ANC when you state that they are doing fine? This may be true when one looks at wards won/lost, BUT the majority of the wards retained are by significantly reduced majorities, it would seem?

Wayne Sussman

The ANC will look at the Mangaung results from yesterday and believe that in a national and provincial election, those who voted for the independents will come home to the ANC.
 

Andrew Sjoberg: How is the EFF performing across the board? Whose lunch are they eating?

Wayne Sussman

TThe EFF are struggling in coastal areas. They have, however, shocked the ANC in some traditional strongholds.
Suné Payne

In the Western Cape, in some places the EFF candidates get fewer than 100 votes. They are often a non-factor between two big parties wrestling for control of the ward.
 

Alan Chapman: I know that there have not been many by-elections in the Northern Cape, but is there any evidence of the ANC going under 50% there? They generally seem quite resilient there.

Wayne Sussman

Many opposition hearts get broken somehwere between Kimberley and Kakamas. The ANC had a poor outcome in the local government elections in the NC. I think they will do enought and win outright. I think they get about 52%-53%.
 

Alan Chapman: In recent months the DA has had significant increases in vote share in a few majority black wards: Cape Town Ward 38, (Gugulethu), Overstrand Ward 5 (Zwelihle, Hermanus), Enoch Mgijima Ward 33 (Tarkastad), and Port St Johns Ward 2. Is this a trend, or just down to factors such as local dynamics or candidate quality? Getting 30% like they did in Hermanus is a big number for a township, as is 22% for a rural Transkei ward like they got in Port St Johns.

Wayne Sussman

This is an underreported trend. These are very encouraging results for the DA. However, while these areas are coastal, they are all isolated. It is hard to build an accurate trend. If the DA continues to produce results like this in the EC and the WC, it could be a boon for 2024. The DA wishes it could do this today in the north of the country.
 

Gustav Weich: Analysts all say that the EFF is flatlining but at the same time we see them winning wards. Is their support not being underestimated?

Wayne Sussman

For every poor KZN result for the EFF I can point to you to some excellent results. They have won wards off the ANC in the Free State, Gauteng, North West and MP. However, because of the KZN problems, I think the analysis is correct.
 

Michel Rouillard: Wayne, your assessments are awe-inspiring. What is the prognosis for the ANC & EFF lowest respective shares in 2024? If, say, 42% & 10-12% (EFF not really growing in absolute numbers), then that probable combo is >50% – and the “moonshot pact” is DOA, surely? Especially considering McKenzie & GOOD are already alienated?

Wayne Sussman

I do not think the ANC and EFF want to work together. I think the ANC still has paths back to the Union Buildings if it falls short of 50%. So, while I maintain that I also do not think the moonshot pact is DOA. If it makes sense to voters and donors, there could be opposition momentum. Momentum can take you far. Look at what it is doing for the PA now.
 

Maswele: By-elections are usually marred by low turnout for obvious reasons, such as a normal work day, disorientated voters and perhaps lack of voter awareness. But we have seen that provinces like KZN remain charged all the time, exceeding 50% turnout in by-elections. I would like to believe that the results of these elections are not a true reflection of the people’s will as majority of the people do not get to vote, compared with national elections where the focus and many resources are dedicated in informing people to go and vote for their parties and candidates. Do you think all these results reflect or mirror what’s gonna happen next year? My answer is no! One more reason being that the two sets of elections represent two different aspect of life, leadership and government. In some cases, people will go and vote for characters/individuals instead of parties per se, whereas in the national elections it’s mostly about the bigger picture – the president, load shedding, economy and all that matters

Wayne Sussman

By-election turnout has often been higher than the last LGE. I am grateful that in the main people can vote. Most polls are 07:00-21:00. I do see a difference with national elections and local elections. Local elections are often our midterm elections where incumbents are punished. Having said that, I do think the ANC will fall sharply from 57.5%, but I do not see it at present going below 50%.
 

Nhlanhla: What if the ANC win again next year?

Wayne Sussman

The President will need to form a competent Cabinet that can deal with the many issues facing the country.
 

Steven Mervis: Wayne, you are projecting a growth for the EFF of just over 1% in 2024. This isn’t much progress for them. Has partnering with the ANC over the past year in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape been a mistake for them? They seem to grow where the ANC declines and now they’re propping them up?

Wayne Sussman

Current data suggests the EFF will hover around the same mark as 2019. I do think their partnership with the ANC in KZN in particular has hurt them. In Gauteng, the coalitions are a great opportunity for them to prove themselves as a good governing party. However, it is not good for their brand to be seen as enabling the ANC to govern.
 

In by-elections, is it about the party or the person standing under the party banner? How will this affect 2024?

Suné Payne

In the Western Cape we saw in places like Prince Albert and Vanrhynsdorp that it came down to the candidates who left parties and joined the DA. However, in 2024 the focus will shift from community to national and people will vote based on political views/issues, etc
 

Shaun Reznik: Wayne, is there a risk of the DA not governing the Western Cape after 2024? Can the PA actually go from 0% in 2019 to 15%+ in 2024 to make that even a possibility?

Wayne Sussman

15% is a big number. In 2019, the EFF came third in the WC with 4% of the vote. However, the PA have turned elections on their head. In Ennerdale, south of Johannesburg, the swings to it were wild. The swings to the PA yesterday were very impressive. I do think CT and the Cape Winelands will be harder for such swings. I think the PA will finish third in the WC next year. If the DA falls below 50%, Corne Mulder and the septuagenarian crooner Peter Marais can help the DA get over the line. There is also the ACDP.
Suné Payne

If the DA dips below 50% then it will, like Wayne mentioned previously, rely on parties such as the ACDP and FF+ for support to get over the line. The PA, looking at its by-election increases, stands a good chance of getting a seat in the legislature next year, but what its percentage will be is the big question.
 

Greg Rodrigues: Good morning. From the current by election results it appears marginal that the ANC will get under 50% of the vote. Do you think that apart from the W Cape, Gauteng and KZN are there any provinces where the ANC’s support could dip below 50%? And do you think that the PA will make sufficient inroads into the DA voter base in the W Cape, causing the DA to drop below 50% there?

Wayne Sussman

The Mangaung results yesterday throw shade at those suggesting the ANC will fall below 50%. Yes, the ANC lost ground in three of the by-elections, but in two of them so did the EFF and DA. I wonder if Magashule will form a party. If he does the ANC could fall below 50%. I think the ANC will get over the line in the NC and certainly the other four provinces. The PA are the DA’s biggest concern today. The party has made inroads in key Western Cape areas. If the DA does fall below 50%, I think the FF+ will still get them over the line. As of today, I have them above 50%.
 

Alet Law: What results from last night will excite or concern the parties?

Wayne Sussman

The ANC will be delighted by the result in Wepener, Mangaung, as well as the result in Rustenburg. In Wepener, they showed why it is often cold outside the ANC for those councillors who go against their instructions. Besides a concerted campaign by both the independent and the EFF, the ANC replicated their 2021 showing. Rustenburg is the most populous municipality in North West. This was a good outcome for the ANC. The party will be concerned by the big loss in Mthonjaneni and the close race between it and the EFF in Thaba Nchu (Mangaung). The DA will be very happy with the George result and their improvement in Thaba Nchu. They will be concerned by their poor showing in Wepener. It is clear that white and coloured voters did not show up in this by-election. For the EFF, Thaba Nchu and Senqu were very encouraging. They will want to see whether they can grow more in the Joe Gqabi District in the EC. The party will remain concerned about KZN. The IFP are very happy today, so are the PA. GOOD will be devastated. By the way, it was also a poor night for incumbents. We had seven ward councillors trying to win their seats back yesterday. Only one succeeded.
 

Fanie Viljoen: Why didn’t ActionSA stand in the recent local by-elections in Mangaung? They can’t expect to rule if they don’t stand in elections.

Wayne Sussman

ActionSA are very deliberate about where they do and do not contest. By-elections are expensive. However, I was surprised that they did not contest in some of the Mangaung by-elections. Mangaung would have been a good opportunity.
 

Alan Ramsay: Two questions, please: (1) What is your projection for the ANC percentage share of the vote in 2024 – and, briefly, why? (2) What will the profile of the ANC vote comprise, notably in respect of young voters and traditional supporters?

Wayne Sussman

Just like there is not one stereotypical PA voter or EFF voter, there is no one ANC voter prototype. Having said that, the ANC’s rural resillience is very impressive. They will need to energise rural South Africa next year, especially in the EC, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and then aim to outperform expectations in places like Mangaung, Buffalo City, Mbombela, southern KZN and Kimberley. My current projection is 50.5%. That is from looking at turnout scenarios, by-election trends and recent election data.
 

Alan Chapman: How likely is an IFP majority in KZN? I suppose we still need to see more by-election results from southern KZN.

Wayne Sussman

This is unlikely. However, their first and primary goal is to bring the ANC under 50% in KZN. They are definitely currently on track with this. They need to bring the ANC closer to 42% than, say, 45%.
 

Manuel Alvarez-Rivera: Given that EFF has polled strongly in some municipal by-elections since 2019, while the DA has struggled at times, could it possibly displace the latter as the main opposition party to the ANC in 2024?

Wayne Sussman

I think it is unlikely at this stage. The EFF need to fix the current challenges they are facing in KZN. Remember, this is how the EFF grew in 2019. The party has electoral headwinds in KZN.
 

Mark Crozier: Does the moonshot pact have a shot at governing SA?

Wayne Sussman

Right now it is unlikely. However, I think we should appreciate parties like those in the moonshot pact, and those exploring other pacts trying to do their best for an outsized performance. Let us see what the moonshot pact unveils in August.
 

Neil du Plooy: In blunt terms: Based on by election results, does it seem like the PA have captured the constituency of GOOD and perhaps more?

Wayne Sussman

GOOD voters went to the PA and the DA in the latest by-elections. This makes sense. It seems like more went to the PA than the DA in George.
Suné Payne

The PA has made inroads into GOOD’s support in by-elections, if we look at the numbers.
 

Pierre Marais: Will there be an election? Will it not be postponed repeatedly or indefinitely? Will the election be fair? What are the possibilities of the election being rigged? If the ruling party loses the election, will its supporters not make the country ungovernable or maybe form a coalition with another smaller party to make it ungovernable like we’ve seen in the local government elections? Alternatively, if the ruling party loses the election, could this not spark civil unrest on a massive scale?

Wayne Sussman

There will be an election and I believe it will be free and fair. It will be vital for all parties and civil society to be vigilant and protect the integrity of the polls. I hope we observers across the length and breadth of this land, from Tamboerskloof to Tembisa, Engcobo to Eshowe.
 

Jordan Gamsy: What is the most probable coalition if the ANC falls below 50%?

Wayne Sussman

ANC/AI/GOOD/Al-Jama-ah. The ANC will want stability. They will not want to work with parties who will be unpredictable and hard to manage or work with.
 

Neil du Plooy: How important is it to consider voter turnout in massive swing results in by-elections?

Wayne Sussman

I pay close attention to each voting district. This is very important. It is important to look at turnout patterns, understand who lives where, etc. By the way, turnout has often been higher than in the 2021 local government elections. I think by-elections beat most opinion polls, especially if we had a good set of data for a particular area.
 

Neil du Plooy: How do by-election results fit into election prediction and predictive modelling? (Do they carry more weight than opinion polls?)

Wayne Sussman

I consider past national, provincial, local and by-election data. Yes, it does carry more weight than opinion polls.
 

Francois Cilliers: Do you see any indication of growth for ActionSA outside of Gauteng and where and in what range would you estimate them in the national vote?

Wayne Sussman

ActionSA have contested three by-elections in Gauteng, one in Limpopo, two in the Eastern Cape and one in KZN. I was impressed with their showing in Finetown in the south of Johannesburg. They did well in Lufhereng. They would be satisfied with most of their non-Gauteng showings (bar Tarkastad in the Eastern Cape). I think they can do well in Johannesburg. We need to see more data for the rest of the country.
 

Ferial Haffajee: Is the ANC doing better than expected?

Wayne Sussman

I think the ANC will be very satisfied with their returns in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo. These provinces have significant voting populations. We have seen the ANC put together a good sequence of results in Mpumalanga. Despite the independents’ campaign in Mangaung, the ANC retained all wards yesterday. Mangaung is the most vote-rich part of the Free State. We saw the party hold steady in Rustenburg yesterday. This is, again, the most vote-rich municipality in NW. Besides ongoing challenges in the Western Cape, the problems in KZN and their underwhelming performances in Gauteng by-elections, the ANC is doing just fine.
 

What would the national election next year look like if it followed the by-election results of the past 12 months.

Wayne Sussman

The ANC are on about 50.5%. The DA are on about 19% to 20%, the EFF on 12% and the IFP 6-7%.
 

Karel van der Vyver: What do the by-elections in George tell us about the DA’s chances of defending their majority in the Western Cape in 2024 with the rise of the PA?

Wayne Sussman

The DA will be happy with the George result. Remember, George is the third-most populous municipality in the Western Cape. It is also traditionally trickier for the DA than Cape Town and Drakenstein (Paarl and Wellington). Even where they lost, they improved from fourth place to second. The big unknown is the rise of the PA. We have seen them make great strides in Prince Albert, parts of the West Coast, Barrydale and now George. The PA won a ward in CT where the DA were not on the ballot.
 

Alan Chapman: The IFP won 25% in KZN in the 2021 local elections. They are regularly increasing their vote share by 20+ percentage points. How likely is an IFP-DA coalition, or even an IFP majority in KZN next year?

Wayne Sussman

TI do not foresee the IFP finishing first in KZN. I think the ANC will. However, I do think the ANC will fall below 50%. The question is: will they fall below 45% or even 42%? The ANC can work with the EFF, ABC, NFP (currently in a difficult patch), and other parties such as APEMO. The IFP has the DA and Team Sugar. If the IFP and DA get close, I think they will need one or two other parties to form a coalition.
 

What is your analysis of the by-elections in KZN? What does it mean for 2024 in that province and should the IFP win the province in 2024? What will that mean for the national elections?

Wayne Sussman

The IFP had a banana-peel slip three weeks ago in iNkosi Langalibalele (rural Estcourt). However, last night they won another ward off the ANC in Mthonjaneni. The IFP are looking strong. I do not see them winning outright. I do think they can bring the ANC below 50% there. If they get the ANC below 45% the ANC will have to fight for every vote in its strongholds to get >50% in 2024.
 

John Gambarana: When will the elections take place in 2024? Are the ANC results in the by-elections going to reflect similarly in the coming elections?

Wayne Sussman

Somewhere between April and August 2024. I think the current trends will inform the results.
 

Alan Chapman: GOOD lost all three of their wards in George yesterday, coming second, third and fifth. They also failed to take Cape Town Ward 56 (Kensington and Maitland) earlier this year, when the DA was not even competing. They are clearly struggling, doing badly in places where they should do well. Do you think this spells the end of the road for GOOD?

Wayne Sussman

It is hard for parties to disappear. Al Jama-ah won a seat in Parliament with 0,18% of the national vote and fewer than 31,500 votes. I think GOOD could still win a seat. The party has bolstered its ranks with Grant Pascoe and Peter de Villiers. They are in a tough spot now, but can turn it around.
Suné Payne

The party really needs to up its game if they want to do well next year. They’ve suffered big losses over the past year and something must be done if they still want to remain not only in Parliament but the provincial legislatures too. However, given the by-election losses in places like Witzenberg and now George, if they don’t pick up steam they will be left out in the cold. Then again, who makes the mistake of counting out one of SA’s best-known political names?
 

Nzani Mahlangu: My interest is for 2024. Do you see the DA making a good coalition partner with other political parties? Bear in mind that when they were supposed to vote for the ActionSA speaker in Tshwane, they decided to vote with numbers instead of “x”, which resulted in spoilt papers. This could be perceived as deliberate act of sabotage?

Wayne Sussman

Let us see what happens with the Moonshot Pact discussion next month. The DA have alot to learn from coalition management but I do not think they are solely to blame.
 

Tangbon: Im still confused: how do they calculate PR? I noticed IFP losing power in Nongoma LM because opposition NFP has more PR.

Wayne Sussman

The IFP won 46% of the vote in Nongoma. Yes, they won 20/23 wards, but they did not win an outright majority. The NFP won 29% of the vote and have 13/45 (which is 29% of the seats). Because they only won 3 wards, they were allocated another 10 PR seats.
 

Cameron Summers: Hi. Allegedly some parties pay ‘volunteers’ a daily rate to man the VD tables. Is this legal and if not, is there any recourse available to other parties? Thanks in advance.

Wayne Sussman

I think this is legal. Parties have the right to appoint polling agents and also offer to check off voters going into the polls. Voters have a choice to ignore these agents.
 

Vic Neilson: What does the moonshot pact plan to do to persuade the old gogos to not vote as they have since 1994, and convince them that a different government will pay them pension money which they think the ANC is paying them now?

Wayne Sussman

I think one of the key planks of the ANC’s 2024 campaign will be the social grants. This has been instrumental in their strong showing, especially in rural areas. Opposition parties will need to convince this sector that they will protect social grants and improve on what the ANC is currently offering.
Suné Payne

In addition to Wayne’s comment: We must also remember that people will vote for whoever they want. People have died in this country for the right to vote for a party they want. Many people will vote based on their values or their particular needs at a particular time. To put it down to someone voting for the ANC because of social grants – while it’s an important issue given our country’s high unemployment and poverty rates – actually strips away an individual’s goals, community life, pressing issues, family situation, children, career, etc.
 

Khwezi Jackson: Will the ANC national be just below 50% or around the 40% mark.

Wayne Sussman

I think close to the 50% mark. I do not buy this 42% number.
 

Timothy Stockhall: Good morning. Do you think we will ever move beyond this childish mud flinging and get to decent collaborative governing in SA. Without “adulting” happening I struggle to see how we will get SA right. Typical example is the PA and DA at this stage.

Suné Payne

I don’t think political parties anywhere in the world will move away from talking about each other or mud slinging. In SA’s case, particularly because we have different kinds of personalities among politicians, we will never move past it. We’ve seen it with the DA and GOOD, as well as with the DA and the PA.
 

Clifford Martin: Are you seeing any signs of growth for the DA come the 2024 elections?

Wayne Sussman

Areas where the DA could improve on their recent showings are eThekwini and other parts of KZN, Nelson Mandela Bay. The DA have done well in recent by-elections but remain vulnerable in the north of the country and, of course, the Western Cape. They had a good outing in George yesterday. We need to see more data out of Cape Town and surrounding areas.
 

Clifford Martin: What are the chances of an EFF/ANC alliance?

Wayne Sussman

I think this is not what either party will desire. The losses outweigh the gains for both. We also see some challenges in this regard in Ekurhuleni at the moment, where all is not going according to plan. The ANC would rather find other partners. The EFF will be desperate to bring the ANC below 50%.
 

Wayne Alexander: What would the results of an election be if we were to go to the polls tomorrow based on the trends emerging from by-elections?

Wayne Sussman

I think the ANC are hovering around the 50% mark. The big unknowns remain Gauteng and KZN. I expect the ANC to be rock-solid in provinces like the EC and Limpopo. The ANC has also had some encouraging results in recent Mpumalanga by-elections. These are good signs for them.
 

Rajen Naidoo: How good an indicator are the by-elections of the 2024 national elections, taking into account the moonshot pact?

Wayne Sussman

I think by-election trends are good indicators. It is especially good if we have a pattern of results in particular areas. For example, we had 3 by-elections in George and 4 in Mangaung yesterday. We had 2 in the King Cetshwayo District in Northern KZN. This is helpful. The caveat is that in some by-elections you could have local factors which will not play out on the national or provincial stage.
 

Rishigen Viranna: Taking into account Western Cape by-elections since 2021 LGE, what is the risk of the DA losing its majority in that province? If they do drop below 50%, what would be their probable percentage?

Wayne Sussman

The Western Cape is a battleground province. It is, in my opinion, somewhere between Gauteng and KZN. The DA’s big threats are the PA and FF+. If the DA were to fall below 50%, I believe the FF+ would get them over the line. I have them just over 50% at the moment. I would like to see more by-election trends from Cape Town and the Cape Winelands (Paarl, Wellington, Stellenbosch, Malmesbury) where more than 80% of Western Cape voters reside,
 
Suné Payne

It’s a difficult question, especially since many of the DA’s wins in by-elections come from rural areas i.e. Vanrhynsdorp and Prince Albert. I agree with Wayne – we should see more results from the metro and the Cape Winelands region for a better understanding of whether the DA could lose its majority.
 
 
 

Question: Tell me how the live chat works? 

Suné Payne

This live chat will take place on Thursday, July 20, 09:00 am – 11:00 am SAST. During this time, my colleague Wayne and I will be here, answering your questions as best we can. You can submit your questions in advance in the box above, or join us on Thursday morning to follow along and ask them then.

 
 
 

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