Ukraine’s counteroffensive has liberated from occupation an area of about 160km² in the south, according to Hanna Malyar, a deputy defence minister. Malyar reported “fierce fighting” in the east and said Russian troops were advancing in four areas there.

China hopes to organise regular military exercises and expand cooperation with the Russian navy, the country’s defence minister, Li Shangfu, said at a meeting with the Russian navy’s commander-in-chief in Beijing.

Latest developments

• CIA chief calls war in Ukraine ‘corrosive’ for Putin’s regime
• India’s oil imports from Russia climb to new peak as limit nears
• Milley says ‘no decision’ yet on sending ATACMS to Ukraine

Russian general still missing as defence chief slams mutiny

A Russian general who’s been questioned over the failed mutiny by Wagner mercenaries was conspicuously absent at a meeting of top army chiefs where Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu denounced the rebellion.

Sergei Surovikin (56), a career military officer dubbed “General Armageddon” for his ruthless tactics in Syria, hasn’t been seen since the short-lived rebellion ended on 24 June. He was quizzed over his links to Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin over several days last week at an undisclosed location, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The “attempt to destabilise the situation in Russia” failed because the armed forces “remained true to their oath”, Shoigu told officers at the Defence Ministry meeting broadcast on Monday on state TV, in his first public comments on the uprising. “The provocation didn’t affect” Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, he said.

The insurrection by the one-time ally of President Vladimir Putin spiralled into the biggest threat to the Russian leader’s 24-year rule and has left unanswered questions about the extent to which elements in the military may have known in advance about Prigozhin’s plans. Wagner forces came within 200km of Moscow facing little opposition before halting their advance after Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a deal to end the crisis.

While Lukashenko said last week that Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus, the Wagner founder hasn’t been seen since late on 24 June and his social media channels have all gone silent.

A Telegram channel linked to Wagner posted a brief audio recording on Monday that it said was from Prigozhin, saying the rebellion had aimed to mobilise Russian society against traitors and appealing to listeners for support. It couldn’t be independently authenticated.

India state refiners consider paying in yuan for Russian crude

India’s state oil refiners, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum, are considering paying for Russian crude in yuan in an effort to widen their currency options.

Most payments are currently made in dirhams and dollars, and the risk that the use of these currencies for trade with Russia will be stopped is making the refiners look for alternatives, officials from the two companies said, asking not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

India’s oil imports from Russia hit a record 2.2 million barrels a day in June, rising for the 10th month in a row and exceeding the combined shipments from the next two largest providers Saudi Arabia and Iraq, according to Kpler data. New Delhi has benefited from discounted purchases as many other nations shun Moscow’s crude following the war in Ukraine. Russia in turn has found a ready buyer.

Indian Oil, the biggest state refiner, paid in yuan for Russian purchases last month, Reuters reported.

Saudis and Russia extend oil supply cuts, bolstering prices

Saudi Arabia will prolong its unilateral oil production cut by one month, keeping a lid on supply amid persisting fears over the global economy. Its Opec+ ally Russia also announced fresh curbs on exports. 

The kingdom will maintain the one million barrel-a-day reduction – launched this month on top of existing curbs agreed upon with Opec+ – into August and could extend it further, according to a statement published by the state-run Saudi Press Agency. The country will pump about nine million barrels a day, the lowest in several years, sacrificing sales volumes for what has so far been a minimal reward in terms of higher prices.   

Oil futures rose after the announcement, but trimmed those gains later. Brent crude was 0.5% higher at $75.76 a barrel as of 5:07 p.m. in London.

The Saudi effort will be assisted by Russia, which will reduce oil exports by 500,000 barrels a day in August, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in comments published by his press service. He later added that the country would also aim to reduce production by this amount. Algeria will reduce output by 20,000 barrels a day next month.

So far this year, Moscow has dragged its heels on cutbacks agreed with Opec+ as it faces pressure to keep funds flowing to its war against Ukraine.

The sacrifice comes at a cost to the Saudi economy, which is set to contract by 1.8% this year after expanding nearly 9% in 2022, according to Bloomberg Economics. 

Consuming nations like the US have railed against Opec+ and its allies for their policy of constricting supplies, accusing the cartel of exacerbating inflation and endangering a fragile economic recovery. The International Energy Agency has condemned the group for laying “siege” to vulnerable consumers. 

The Saudis indicated in their statement that further extensions were possible, and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman — who will address an energy conference hosted by Opec in Vienna on Wednesday — has promised to keep traders in “suspense” on future plans.

EU weighs Russian bank concession to save Ukraine grain deal

European Union and United Nations officials are discussing creating a new unit within a sanctioned Russian bank in a bid to salvage Ukraine’s grain export deal.

A new entity of the Russian Agricultural Bank – which was cut off from the Swift international payments system following the invasion of Ukraine – would be allowed to undertake transactions related to grain trading, according to people familiar with the talks. The Kremlin has been pushing to reconnect the bank to the network as a condition of renewing the Black Sea deal that offers a safe corridor for Ukraine grain shipments.

EU leaders were briefed on the option at a summit in Brussels last Thursday, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter is private. The EU is reluctant to reconnect the bank outright, given its close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and fears the lender could be used for transactions that go beyond agriculture. DM