Amazing as the advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are right now, I humbly suggest that the key global trends that will affect the day-to-day lives of South Africans over the next 12 months are a little more human. Particularly, I am keeping a close eye on invisible borders, broken social contracts and shadow governance.

Invisible borders

The new version of discrimination is cleverly disguised as seemingly legitimate virtue, but still has the same effect: segregating the rich from the poor. I’ve termed this trend “greenlining”, as it works in a very similar way to redlining.

Redlining refers to the practice of discriminating against individuals based on their postal code, which is often a service­able proxy of race, therefore allowing biased service providers to effectively discriminate based on race while still being able to claim ignorance. Greenlining is similar, only instead of using one’s address as the proxy for discrimination, eco credentials are used.

For example, there is a community battle taking place in Miami where wealthier existing residents are attempting to block the construction of more affordable housing in their areas. The residents are claiming “environmental impact” concerns as the reason for their resistance to poorer ethnic minority communities moving in next door.

Broken social contracts

At every level, the social contracts that hold our society together are coming apart at the seams.

At a micro level, the relationship between employer and employee is breaking down in the aftermath of the “great resignation” that saw millions of workers question the wisdom of the nine-to-five corporate grind.

At a macro level, the relationships citizens have with their states has to be redefined as governments the world over struggle to keep the lights on, in a very literal sense. As state service delivery struggles to keep up with collapsing population pyramids, citizens are questioning the rights they give up in exchange for what feels like less and less in return. Governments, in turn, are struggling to subdue waves of unrest.

Shadow governance

As state service delivery breaks down, communities are taking on the responsibility for protecting and maintaining their own neighbourhoods, often without permission.

Expect less from the government and more resourcefulness and resentment from the governed.

However these trends play out, you can rely on one thing, and that is that South Africans will continue to make a plan. And remember that while shiny new technology and buzzwords like AI and metaverse are interesting and exciting, we have a whole lot of challenges right here in the real world to contend with right now. DM168

Bronwyn Williams is a business trends analyst and a partner at Flux Trends.

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R25.