Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg echoed remarks by Polish President Andrzej Duda, telling a news conference after chairing a meeting of the alliance in Brussels that there was “no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against Nato”. Preliminary analysis suggested that an explosion in Poland on Tuesday was probably caused by a Ukrainian rocket fired to repel Russian cruise missile attacks, Stoltenberg said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky disputed that account, saying he believed the rocket that caused the explosion came from Russia and calling for Kyiv to be involved in the investigation.

Key developments

• Poland says nothing indicates missile hit was intentional attack
• Xi looks away from Putin towards West in return to world stage
• Russia’s economic pain won’t peak soon amid sanctions slow burn
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• Druzhba pipe may resume soon as market on edge: Energy latest

On the ground

Russian forces conducted the largest set of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure since the start of the war on Tuesday, according to the latest report from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Russian military probably used a substantial portion of its remaining high-precision weapon systems in the coordinated missile strikes, the ISW said.

US concurs Ukraine missile probably went astray

“We have seen nothing that contradicts President Duda’s preliminary assessment that this explosion was most likely the result of a Ukrainian air defence missile that unfortunately landed in Poland,” the US National Security Council said in a statement on the incident in Poland.

“But whatever the final conclusions may be,” spokesperson Adrienne Watson added in the statement, “it is clear that the party ultimately responsible for this tragic incident is Russia, which launched a barrage of missiles on Ukraine specifically intended to target civilian infrastructure. Ukraine had — and has — every right to defend itself.”

Zelensky calls for Ukraine to take part in blast probe

Zelensky said he wants Ukraine to take part in the investigation into the blast in Poland, arguing that his military reported that the missile that killed the two men across the border didn’t come from Kyiv’s troops.

“I believe it’s a Russian missile — I believe so according to my trust in the report by the military,” Zelensky said, referring to a report that he received from his commanders.

He urged investigators to provide any evidence of the missile’s connection to Ukraine, even if it’s done via non-public channels. His statement contrasts with those of Nato country leaders who said the blast was probably caused by an anti-aircraft weapon fired by Kyiv’s troops.

Russian economy shrinks for second quarter 

Russia’s economy shrank for a second quarter as the shock of sanctions over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted trade and upended domestic demand, with the worst of the downturn likely early next year.

Gross domestic product fell by an annual 4% in the third quarter, in line with the central bank’s estimate, but faring better than every forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. It follows a drop of 4% in the prior three months, in what was Russia’s first GDP contraction in over a year.

Zloty recovers as traders reminded of looming risks 

Poland’s currency, the zloty, bounced back from a three-week low after the missile blast was called a potential accident, not an international attack escalating the Russia-Ukraine war.

However, the incident reminded traders of the risks still weighing on the zloty — the region’s most liquid currency — after nearly nine months of conflict beyond the European Union’s eastern frontier. The zloty rose by 0.7% to 4.70 per euro on Wednesday after an overnight slide past 4.78. It neared the level where it traded before news of the blast.

Nato defends air defence systems protecting its territory 

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg defended the alliance’s air defence systems after what he said was an errant missile shot down by Ukrainian systems landed in Poland.

The alliance’s air defence systems are designed to prevent attacks, with different missiles having specific characteristics. The cruise missile that landed in Poland didn’t have those traits, he told reporters in Brussels.

“That explains why the reactions were as they were,” Stoltenberg said. “It doesn’t say anything about our ability to defend against deliberate attacks against Nato territory.”

Missile comments chime with Biden’s  

The comments from Duda and Stoltenberg appeared to confirm an earlier assessment from US President Joe Biden, who told allies at the G20 that the explosion, which killed at least two people, was caused by Kyiv’s air defences, according to two officials familiar with the matter.

Biden still said the strike was ultimately sparked by Tuesday’s Russian missile barrage on Ukraine. He delivered the assessment during a conversation with Nato and other allies, said the officials, who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Germany offers to intensify air patrols 

A spokesman for the Defence Ministry in Berlin said Germany had offered to reinforce air-policing patrols over Poland starting already on Thursday if requested by the government in Warsaw.

Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht would discuss the offer with her Polish counterpart later on Wednesday, the spokesman said at a regular news conference. The patrols can be conducted from German bases, he added.

Kremlin praises ‘restrained’ US reaction

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov praised the US for what he called its “restrained” and “professional” reaction to reports of the Polish explosion, dismissing allegations that it was caused by a Russian missile as “hysterical”.

US officials were cautious in identifying the cause of the explosion pending a fuller investigation.

China calls for restraint

China was aware of reports of a missile strike in Poland, foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a regular briefing. She urged all relevant parties to exercise restraint and avoid further escalation of the situation.

Sweden supplies Ukraine with air defence  

Sweden unveiled its largest aid package to Ukraine to date, including three billion kronor ($290-million) in military assistance and 720 million kronor in humanitarian aid.

The package includes an air defence system and ammunition, Defence Minister Pal Jonson and Foreign Trade Minister Johan Forssell told reporters in Stockholm.

Ukraine’s power infrastructure recovering 

Utility services were gradually resuming in Ukraine’s regions and major cities after the damage inflicted by Russia’s missile barrage on Tuesday.

Water and heating were being supplied to customers as usual, while power had been restored in the country’s capital, Kyiv, after almost half of its inhabitants were cut off, local military authorities said.

Ukraine ‘uses same type of missile as one that landed in Poland’

Ukraine also deploys the type of Russian-made missile that landed in Polish territory on Tuesday, according to Agnieszka Scigaj, a minister in the prime minister’s office in Warsaw.

Scigaj told broadcaster TVN24 that so far there was only evidence of a single rocket landing on Polish soil near the Ukrainian border after initial reports pointed to two strikes. Scigaj said the investigation was ongoing and it was still not clear who fired the missile.

Most G20 leaders condemn war 

A majority of G20 nations condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to a joint declaration issued on Wednesday after a summit that suggested Putin’s government is becoming more isolated.

Read more: Key takeaways from G20 summit featuring Biden, Xi and no Putin

“Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy — constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity, and elevating financial stability risks,” G20 leaders said.

Blinken refers to ‘explosion in Poland’ 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had discussed the rocket incident — which he called “the explosion in eastern Poland” — with his Polish and Ukrainian counterparts.

“We pledged to remain closely coordinated in the days ahead as the investigation proceeds and we determine appropriate next steps,” Blinken said in a tweet. DM