Poland, a Nato member, was hit by stray Russian rockets on Tuesday, 15 November, killing two people, the Associated Press reported. Ukraine was hit by a barrage of missiles hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia must accept his country’s borders and withdraw its troops for peace talks to take place.

At least one person was killed in Kyiv when a missile hit a residential building and power was knocked out for half of the capital’s residents, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko. Strikes on critical infrastructure triggered blackouts in cities far from the front lines, including in Lviv in the far west. The White House condemned Russia’s attack during the Group of 20 leaders meeting in Bali.

“If Russia says that it wants to end this war, or so it says, it must prove it with deeds,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address to the G20. Most nations in the bloc were poised to condemn the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine, according to a draft statement seen by Bloomberg.

Key developments

• Ukraine hit by missile strikes as Zelensky makes demands
• Russia poised to agree on extending Black Sea grain deal 
• Even hardest hit Ukraine steelmaker doesn’t want peace deal yet
• Russia brings its food security misinformation to the G20
• Europe to dodge energy crisis this winter, says Slovene premier
• Kyiv seeks ‘grain from Ukraine’ shipments to mark 1930s famine

On the ground

Russian troops that withdrew from the southern region of Kherson are being redeployed to areas in neighbouring Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine’s regional military administration chief, Oleksandr Starukh, said. Russian forces in Nova Kakhovka in the occupied part of the Kherson region east of the Dnipro River have withdrawn because of Ukrainian shelling, Russia’s Tass news agency reported on Telegram.

Russian troops were trying to hold on to captured territories and continue to equip defensive lines along the Dnipro. “The enemy hasn’t stopped shelling Ukrainian army positions as well as civilian areas, violating the norms of international humanitarian law and customs of war,” the Ukrainian General Staff said in a statement.

White House condemns attack during G20 leaders’ summit  

Russia’s latest missile strikes on Ukraine will “only deepen the concerns among the G20 about the destabilising impact of Putin’s war”, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday. The US and its allies would continue providing Ukraine with defensive capabilities, including air defence systems, according to Sullivan, who added, “we will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes”.

Barrage of missile strikes tops 10 October attack

Ukraine’s air defence forces said that about 100 missiles were launched, exceeding the number from 10 October, when a broad missile attack hit Ukrainian settlements across the country and levelled infrastructure.

Russian missiles were launched from the Black Sea, a site in Rostov in Russian territory and the Caspian Sea, far to the east of Ukraine’s border, air defence spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said in televised comments. Areas of northern and central Ukraine were hit the hardest, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the Ukrainian president’s deputy chief of staff, said on Telegram.

Moldova experiences massive blackouts after Russian strikes on Ukraine

Moldova was experiencing “massive power outages” across the country following Russia’s strikes on Ukraine’s energy system, according to Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spinu.

One of the power lines that ensures electricity supplies had been automatically disconnected as a safety measure, Spinu said in his Telegram channel, adding that lines weren’t damaged. Moldova’s state operator Moldelectrica was working to restore the connection, according to Spinu.

Slovakia, Germany tank swap deal to boost Ukrainian forces  

Slovakia has agreed to provide 30 BVP-1 tracked infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine as part of a military-equipment swap deal, Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad said. The vehicles should be delivered in the coming weeks. In return, Slovakia will receive 15 Leopard 2 tanks.

Russia’s Lavrov stays seated at G20 for Zelensky speech

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stayed in the room during Zelensky’s virtual address at the G20 summit, before firing back with a litany of often-made but unsubstantiated accusations, people familiar with the matter said.

The speeches were a prominent fixture of the first G20 session and signalled how tensions and the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are hanging over the bloc.

Gazprom’s daily gas exports dive to new multiyear low

Gazprom’s daily natural gas exports to key markets declined in November, extending the multiyear lows hit last month with flows to Europe capped.

Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe have been falling for months as the Kremlin retaliates for the region’s support of Ukraine amid the war. European concerns over supplies have dwindled recently as the continent, historically the biggest market for Gazprom, has been diversifying away from Russian imports and stockpiling the fuel before the winter. European Union gas storage sites were 95.5% full in the week to 12 November.

Wheat extends drop on optimism over grain deal 

Chicago wheat futures fell by as much as 2.1% to $8.205 a bushel, before paring losses to 1.3% as of 4.42am local time. Corn (maize) traded at a two-month low, and Paris milling-wheat futures also dropped to the lowest since September.

The pact was signed in late July for an initial 120-day run, which is due to expire this weekend. Renewing it would help maintain flows of critical foodstuffs despite Russia’s invasion, buffering strained global supplies. Ukraine has shipped more than 10 million tonnes of crops through the Black Sea since the deal came into force, led by maize and wheat cargoes.

EU formally starts training mission for Ukraine

The EU’s new military mission is aimed at training up to 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers on the territory of its member states, including Poland. It will be commanded by the bloc’s director of Military Planning and Conduct Capability, Vice-Admiral Herve Blejean.

The EU also approved €16-million to finance the delivery of ammunition and other lethal military equipment to Kyiv.

Scholz will keep talking to Putin

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reinforced his position that it’s important to maintain dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin on ending the war and he has no misgivings about keeping a channel open to the Russian leader.

“In the end, there has to come a moment at some point when Russia sees and accepts that it must come out of this situation,” Scholz told reporters at the G20 summit in Bali. One precondition for any peace settlement is that Putin withdraws Russian troops from Ukraine and the government in Kyiv must not be pressured to accept any deal dictated by the Kremlin, he added.

Russia expected to extend grain deal

Russia is expected to extend a United Nations-brokered deal allowing exports of Ukrainian grain and other farm products from the Black Sea, according to four people familiar with the situation.

The initial accord to ensure a vital flow of foodstuffs to the global market will roll over a 19 November deadline unless one of the parties objects.

Russian envoy Lavrov, speaking after Group of 20 meetings in Bali, said the UN assured him that his government’s conditions for the grain deal would be met by the US and EU. Those demands include making sure Ukraine doesn’t use the export corridor for military purposes, facilitating Russian grain and fertiliser shipments, allowing state-owned Rosselkhozbank “to work in full”, and ensuring “normal” insurance rates, he said.

Zelensky outlines requirements for peace talks at G20

Speaking to the G20 leaders, Zelensky outlined the most urgent steps Russia must take before any peace talks happen. He said Moscow must first remove troops from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and transfer control of the station to the International Atomic Energy Agency and Ukraine and complete an exchange of prisoners and deportees. Russia must also accept Ukraine’s territory under the UN General Assembly resolution and pull back all its troops and cede to Ukraine control of its borders.

The Ukrainian president also warned that the country needs more deliveries of air defence and anti-missile systems from partners to help protect itself, especially given that its energy system is operating under strain after Russian attacks last month. Ukraine asked for a UN mission to inspect critical energy infrastructure and assess the scale of damage and the amount of help required.

Latvia calls for Marshall Plan for Ukraine

Latvian Defence Minister Artis Pabriks called on the EU to start thinking about how the bloc can help Ukraine after the war ends, pointing to comments by Zelensky that the liberation of Kherson could be the beginning of the end of the war.

“We have to think about tomorrow and how Ukraine will be helped by the European Union,” Pabriks told reporters ahead of a gathering of foreign and defence ministers in Brussels.

The Latvian defence chief said the EU would be able to contribute after the war ends by assisting with demining teams and anything else Ukraine needs to rebuild the country the way Germany did after World War 2. “There is a need for a Marshall plan and this is what the EU should concentrate on,” Pabriks said.

Most G20 leaders agree to condemn Russia for war in Ukraine

A majority of G20 nations were set to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to a joint statement drafted for the summit that was seen by Bloomberg.

The statement cited a discussion at the summit about the impact of the conflict on the global economy. It refers to the “war in Ukraine” but not “Russia’s war in Ukraine”, and represents a compromise in wording designed to get as many G20 leaders to sign off as possible.

Ukraine seeks new grain shipment funding

The Ukrainian government is working with supporter nations to fund new shipments of grain around the anniversary of the 1930s Holodomor famine — a symbolic push that comes amid discussions to extend a deal that allows grain exports from its war-stricken ports.

Officials in Kyiv are seeking funding and support for shipments that would be timed for the late November commemoration of the famine. The plans are at an early stage and it’s unclear how many ships might be involved and how much it would cost, according to officials familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing the negotiations. DM