As he oversaw nuclear drills on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin was told by his defence chief that the manoeuvres were meant to simulate a “massive nuclear strike” in response to an attack, according to the televised remarks. The US had been notified that Russia would conduct the exercise in compliance with arms control obligations, the Pentagon said earlier.

“Russia would be making an incredibly serious mistake were it to use a tactical nuclear weapon,” Biden said on Tuesday. The president said he’d been in discussions about the possibility.

Key developments

• Biden warns Russia against ‘false flag’ nuke attack in Ukraine
• Putin oversees regular nuclear drills amid escalation fears 
• Russians fleeing Putin’s war stoke inflation pain for neighbours
• Biden says Russia has given cold reception to Griner diplomacy
• Europe risks diesel supply shock as Russia oil sanctions near
• What is a ‘dirty bomb’ and why is Ukraine worried?: QuickTake

On the ground

Two people died and four were injured in a Russian missile attack on the city of Dnipro on Tuesday evening, local authorities said on Telegram. Over the past day, Russian forces launched five missile strikes, up to 30 air attacks and more than 100 multiple rocket launcher assaults, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. Ukrainian troops repelled attacks near nine settlements, including Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, and downed five Russian UAVs, the military said.

Blinken warns of consequences if nuclear weapon used

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Putin of the consequences his country would face for using a nuclear weapon in the Ukraine war.

“We’ve communicated that very clearly and directly to the Russians, including President Putin,” Blinken said during a wide-ranging interview at Bloomberg’s offices in Washington. “We’re concerned.”

Blinken said Russia’s discussion of Ukraine using a so-called dirty bomb was yet “another fabrication” and that Russia has a “history of projecting,” attributing to others behaviours they are contemplating themselves. He said the rhetoric was “irresponsible”. A dirty bomb uses conventional explosives to spread radioactive nuclear waste over a limited area.

US citizen’s remains to be returned from Ukraine 

The US State Department said that the remains of a US citizen killed in the fighting in Ukraine have been identified and released to Ukraine’s custody for return to the US. The department said in a statement that the citizen’s name won’t be released out of respect for the family’s privacy.

“We once again reiterate that US citizens should not travel to Ukraine due to Russia’s full-scale invasion and active armed conflict,” the department said.

Israel offers intelligence on Iranian drones – Zelensky 

Russia has fired more than 400 Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones across Ukraine so far, Interfax cited President Volodymyr Zelensky as saying during a briefing in Kyiv, a figure based on Israeli intelligence.

The data on the single-use attack drones used by Russia came from Israel several days ago, according to Zelensky, who said he sees it as a step forward in cooperation with Israel, with whom relations with Ukraine are “warming”.

“We believe Israel should support Ukraine more,” he said.

Ukraine reports another prisoner swap with Russia

Ukraine conducted another prisoner swap with Russia, the country’s presidential chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said on Twitter. Ten Ukrainian servicemen, including one officer, returned home, he wrote. Russia also released the body of one US citizen who was fighting with Ukrainian troops.

Last week, 108 women returned to Ukraine in a prisoner swap.

Russians fleeing Putin’s war stoke inflation pain for neighbours

A wave of Russians fleeing the military mobilisation to fight in Ukraine is stirring up inflation in neighbouring countries and possibly putting consumer prices under more pressure at home by straining the domestic labour market.

Kazakhstan, which quickly emerged as a popular destination that Russians can enter visa-free, experienced what the central bank called a “migration shock”. Alongside other factors such as a stronger rouble, it’s fanning inflation expectations that were among the reasons for a bigger-than-forecast hike in interest rates.

India tells Russia nuclear weapons should be off table  

India’s defence minister, Rajnath Singh, said he told his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, that “the nuclear option should not be resorted to by any side”, backing worldwide warnings against deploying atomic warheads.

The two officials spoke by phone, with Singh reinforcing India’s position to seek a “path of dialogue” to end the conflict, according to a tweet. India hasn’t condemned Russia’s attack on its neighbour or imposed sanctions on Russia, instead becoming a vital source of demand for Russian oil since the invasion began. The two defence chiefs also discussed defence cooperation.

Russian nuclear drills involved ballistic, cruise missiles

Russia’s nuclear exercises, known as Grom, included the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles from Kamchatka in the Russian far east, ballistic missiles from the Barents Sea and cruise missiles fired from the air by strategic bombers.

Russian officials have denied they plan to use atomic weapons, while the Kremlin has accused Ukraine of planning to detonate a so-called “dirty bomb”, claims that Kyiv and its allies have dismissed. Ukraine in turn has warned that Moscow could be preparing to explode a conventional weapon containing radioactive material and blame it on the Ukrainian side.

Nato chief calls Russia’s ‘dirty bomb’ accusations absurd

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Russian claims about a Ukrainian “dirty bomb” were “absurd”. Russia must not use a false pretext “to escalate the war further”, he told reporters in Brussels.

Stoltenberg said he would meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan “in the near future” as he seeks quick ratification of bids by Sweden and Finland to join Nato — and reiterated that allies were ready to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”.

“The stronger Ukraine is on the battlefield, the more likely we will have a political solution that ensures Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation in Europe,” Stoltenberg said.

Russia airs Ukraine ‘dirty bomb’ claims with China, India

Russian defence chief Shoigu spoke with his Chinese and Indian counterparts to discuss Moscow’s allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory.

The calls took place after Shoigu earlier this week contacted defence ministers in the UK, France and Turkey to make the same claims. The US and Russian defence chiefs also spoke twice in the space of three days.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said his country had “information” about the threat, which it has shared, including at the United Nations Security Council. Ukraine has denied the accusations, suggesting that Russia itself is planning to explode a dirty bomb and blame it on Kyiv.

Estonia sets up preventative measures for civilians

Estonia is procuring air-raid sirens and designating public facilities as bomb shelters to better defend its civilian population in potential wartime situations.

The Baltic nation, formerly annexed by the Soviet Union and among the most vocal critics of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, said it signed an agreement with Slovakia-based Telegrafia to procure warning sirens in 22 towns and cities. The country is also rolling out more barbed wire fencing on its border with Russia.

While investing more per capita in its military than most other Nato members, Estonia says its citizens are poorly defended against potential military conflict and natural catastrophes.

Maritime traffic in Ukraine crop-export corridor ‘on hold’

Two vessels were dispatched to check the area where a suspicious object was reported in the Black Sea’s grain-export corridor, Ismini Palla, UN spokesperson for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, said by email. Traffic has “been put on hold for today”, she said.

The suspicious object was reported earlier on Tuesday by a vessel in the area. The finding risks further disrupting crop exports from Ukraine, which have already been slowed by a lengthy vessel inspection holdup in Istanbul. The crop-export deal that revived Ukraine’s seaborne trade is up for renewal in mid-November, and officials have yet to verify an extension.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive slows over weather

Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said his country’s counteroffensive had slowed as rainy conditions made it harder to move military equipment.

The rainy weather “makes us a little bit slower”, but Ukraine is taking its area back by “metres and kilometres, step by step,” he said in an interview with Fox News. “And we will continue to do it.”

He said Russia’s troops were not ready for street fighting in the southern city of Kherson, where they are facing issues with military supplies after the Ukrainian army repeatedly hit bridges linking Kherson and the left bank of the Dnipro river, occupied by Russian forces.

Ukraine limits power in some regions

The national electricity grid operator Ukrenergo limited power deliveries to consumers in a wide swathe of Ukraine’s central and eastern regions. The move should “ease the burden on the grid to ensure a sustainable balance of the energy system and to avoid repeated accidents after electricity lines were damaged by Russia’s missiles shelling”, the company said on Telegram.

A day earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk made a plea to Ukrainians who fled the country because of the invasion. “You see what Russia is doing, the grid cannot withstand” such pressure, she said on television. “If you have an opportunity to spend the winter abroad, it is worth doing that.”

Russia flags regular nuclear drills

Russia notified the US of plans to hold its “routine annual exercise” in compliance with arm control obligations, Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said.

Russia last held the drills in February this year, shortly before it invaded Ukraine. The exercises, known as Grom, or “thunder”, traditionally take place in October, involving submarines, planes and missiles, but were skipped in 2021 due to the Covid pandemic.

“That is something that we will continue to keep an eye on,” Ryder said. DM