The 2019 Rugby World Cup tournament produced several big upsets and climaxed in fairy-tale fashion. Japan beat Ireland and Scotland to qualify for the playoffs for the first time. England humbled New Zealand in the semifinals, and the Springboks capped a dramatic 18-month comeback by winning the decider.

The Japanese committed to creating a unique atmosphere at the matches. The manner in which the authorities managed the fallout of Typhoon Hagibis, and ensured that the competition was completed, contributed to a collective sense of triumph.

The 2023 Rugby World Cup is unlikely to match its predecessor in that respect. Instead, the tournament in France is set to offer an unprecedented level of competition as well as a high degree of uncertainty.

Little more than a year remains before the opening World Cup clash between France and New Zealand on 8 September 2023. As things stand, there isn’t a great deal between world rugby’s top-seven ranked sides, and others in the top 10 – Wales, Scotland and Japan – have already proved that they can win a one-off against the teams in the elite bracket.

 The rise and rise of the north

The southern hemisphere giants have accounted for eight out of nine World Cup titles. England appeared well placed to end the south’s dominance in 2019, until the Boks won the final in Yokohama.

In a broader sense, the northern-hemisphere nations have been on the rise for the past six or seven years. In 2016, Ireland backed up a historic win in SA with an inaugural victory against the All Blacks. The next season, the Lions became the first team to win a Test in New Zealand in eight years, and held the All Blacks to a 1-1 draw in a three-game series.

It was around this time that Eddie Jones’s England won back-to-back Six Nations tournaments and equalled the tier-one record for the most consecutive Test wins (18). Wales bounced back in 2019 to win the Six Nations, and came within a solitary penalty of progressing to the World Cup final.

 France find winning formula

The status quo was challenged during the early stages of the next four-year cycle. Covid-19 sent shock waves through the sport in 2020, and the Boks bore the brunt of heavy restrictions, missing the entire Test season.

While Ireland and England built on their existing structures, France underwent a dramatic transformation, with new coach Fabien Galthié putting together a crack management team and player base.

Between 2016 and 2019, France were feared but not respected as a realistic contender for the Six Nations or World Cup titles. They won 38% of their Tests during that period. Since 2020, Les Bleus have beaten every top team bar the Boks and have ended a 12-year Six Nations title drought.

Ireland have been similarly consistent, with a 68% win record against the top flight during this period.

Though the heavy hitters up north have progressed – with the exception of Wales, who have a 40% win record under coach Wayne Pivac – the southern hemisphere giants have either stagnated or declined.

Since the 2019 World Cup, the All Blacks have lost to all of their Rugby Championship counterparts at least once.

The Boks have maintained their penchant for inconsistency in the period between World Cups. The series victory against the Lions was monumental in isolation. The losses against New Zealand, Australia and England in 2021, however, highlighted the shortcomings in their game.

The Boks have continued to ride the roller-coaster in 2022. After plunging to a historic low against Wales in Bloemfontein, they wrapped up the three-game series in Cape Town, and then claimed their biggest win over the All Blacks in nearly a century. In the ensuing weeks, they lost to New Zealand in Joburg and to Australia in Adelaide.

Pumas progress

Argentina have progressed steadily after joining the Rugby Championship in 2012 and the Super Rugby tournament in 2016. That said, the Pumas only managed to achieve an overall win record of 22% between 2016 and 2019. Since 2020, they have claimed historic wins against the Wallabies and All Blacks. For the first time in history they are in a position to win the Rugby Championship title. 

Unanswered questions

The Tests played in the northern hemisphere in November should provide some answers regarding where each team stands.

The Boks could make a statement with wins against Ireland and France. A further victory against England would compensate for a largely disappointing Rugby Championship campaign.

Conversely, Ireland could strengthen their mental hold on SA ahead of their meeting with the world champions in the World Cup pool stage, and France could claim their first win against the Boks since 2009.

And yet, even if they succeed this November, Ireland and France will have everything to prove at the World Cup tournament itself.

The All Blacks are too good a rugby nation to be written off, and England have been one of the northern hemisphere’s most consistent sides at the global tournament. The Boks boast a three-from-three record in World Cup finals. By contrast, Ireland have never progressed beyond the quarterfinal stage, whereas France have a zero-from-three record in the decider.

The race to the top of the rankings has never been this intense. Brace yourself for a series of upsets this November, and subsequently the most competitive World Cup tournament to date. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R25.