Trade War Fallout
The team at Bloomberg Economics published new estimates in which an extreme all-out trade war scenario would wipe almost $600 billion from the global gross domestic product in 2021 compared to a scenario in which there were no hostilities. Wall Street economists are also turning more pessimistic with Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Nomura Holdings Inc. and JPMorgan Chase and Co. among those rewriting their forecasts. Nomura sees a 65% chance that the U.S. imposes duties on all of its imports from China by the end of the year.
Central banks across Asia sought to defend their currencies from recent declines as the trade war takes hold. They seem most intent on keeping their exchange rates steady and stopping money from escaping rather than engaging in devaluations to boost their competitiveness. China is trying to stop the yuan from weakening so as to ensure capital doesn’t flee. Meantime, authorities in South Korea called a snap meeting to discuss the won’s slide, which they called excessively. Bank Indonesia also expressed concern about the rupiah. Adding to the gloom, U.S. restrictions on China’s telecom giant Huawei are threatening Asia’s technology powerhouses and Japanese exports fell for a fifth straight month.
Despite the rise in trade tensions, Federal Reserve officials signalled they are in no hurry to cut interest rates even as investors bet on a reduction by the end of the year. U.S. central bankers do though worry a prolonged period of inflation readings below their target could begin to erode public confidence in their ability to hit it. The Fed’s staff are already losing faith in the ability to return inflation to 2%, while one former central banker wants them to raise their sights. Iceland became the first central bank in western Europe to cut rates, but Israel is struggling to do so.
From Negative Rates The Ballot BoxPolitics is impacting economics worldwide. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is heading towards re-election although will face deep-rooted economic challenges. Australia’s centre-right government pulled off a surprise election victory and immediately pledged to cut taxes to shore up a slowing economy. In the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa appears not to have long left in power with her economic legacy dominated by the fallout from Brexit. Among emerging markets, Turkey is paying the price for its pre-election efforts to tinker with markets.
Latin America Woes
The southern cone is looking wobbly amid the trade war and as it remains undermined by years of policy errors. Argentina’s economy contracted more than expected in March, while Chile stalled and Peru grew in the first quarter by the least since 2017. As for Brazil, economists there are cutting their forecasts for growth and now expect a third year of meagre economic performance.
In other news...
South Africa is in a very real battle. A political fight where terms such as truth and democracy can seem more of a suggestion as opposed to a necessity.
On one side of the battle are those openly willing to undermine the sovereignty of a democratic society, completely disregarding the weight and power of the oaths declared when they took office. If their mission was to decrease society’s trust in government - mission accomplished.
And on the other side are those who believe in the ethos of a country whose constitution was once declared the most progressive in the world. The hope that truth, justice and accountability in politics, business and society is not simply fairy tale dust sprinkled in great electoral speeches; but rather a cause that needs to be intentionally acted upon every day.
However, it would be an offensive oversight not to acknowledge that right there on the front lines, alongside whistleblowers and civil society, stand the journalists. Armed with only their determination to inform society and defend the truth, caught in the crossfire of shots fired from both sides.
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