The results of Wednesday’s elections are hugely awaited and are generally seen as vitally important to the future of the country. While it is possible that they will answer several important questions about the future direction of South Africa, it is also possible that it may be only the setting of the playing field for new battles. All of that said, these results matter. And matter hugely. So then, this is what to expect once voting finishes.

Polls close at 9pm:

On Wednesday night at 9pm, polling stations are due to close around the country. Under the law, people who are in the queue at 9pm must be allowed to vote, but no more people can join the queue. This may mean that voting will continue for some time in some polling stations (the most likely candidates for this are polling stations that opened late, and are in urban areas with high numbers of voters and few resources).

Then, the counting begins…. or does it?

At each polling station, the counting is performed by the same people who administered the voting, in other words, the electoral officer of the polling station, and the party agents who watched the voting through the day. This group of people will have been on duty since 7am that morning (when voting started). As a result, it is likely that they will be both tired and under pressure. Some groups of presiding officers and party agents may opt to sleep for a few hours before counting, others may decide to count immediately. It is likely that the higher the number of people voting at the station, the more likely these people will want to sleep before counting, because of the number of ballot papers they have to count.

And the race starts!

Here, as in many other countries, there is also a little bit of competition to be among the first polling stations to report. However, this almost automatically disqualifies the bigger polling stations and advantages the smaller ones. This means that smaller rural areas that are next to towns or some kind of communications infrastructure are the most likely to report first.

It is difficult to put hard-and-fast timelines to this, but it is entirely possible that the first results come through as early as just two hours after voting has finished. Which means that by 11pm there may well be some information to play with.

The predictions that can be trusted… and the rest:

At the same time, the number nerds and predictors will be at play. The CSIR and others will be using computer mathematical models to make certain predictions based on the outcome of those early voting trends. This means that you are likely to get two sets of information, the percentage votes based on the votes counted, and some predictions.

By Thursday morning the results should be in full flood, there should literally be a tsunami of results coming in. And by Thursday evening the vast majority of votes should be counted, tabulated and reported.

However, there are regional variations that can be important. Because of the number of votes cast within them, polling stations in the bigger cities are likely to report last. This means that when they report they can still have a significant impact on the final tally (and by “significant” no more than one, two or three percentage points). Thus it might be important to wait for absolutely the last moment before making any serious prognostications on the final result.

Meantime, the political parties are likely to make things slightly more complicated by giving their predictions. They will attempt to control parts of the news agenda and to direct the flow of information. While this can be irresponsible, it can be impossible to stop. And when there is a hunger for new information and to be first with predictions, this is completely understandable.

These predictions are likely to be fairly accurate because of their party agent networks. As the party agents watch the voting, and then the counting, they will send the results back to their central offices. And it will be this information that the parties will be releasing ahead of the official numbers from the Electoral Commission. The delay between the parties and the IEC is caused by the fact that the IEC actually audits the numbers through a careful process, while the parties don’t have that responsibility.

So trust them if you like, but know who it is that you’re trusting.

What to watch while you’re watching:

While much of the focus in the days after the election will be on the share of the national vote garnered by the ANC, the real story is likely to be in Gauteng. Some polls have suggested that the ANC could lose the province, while the DA has said in public that it will be the biggest party there. Which means that as the numbers tick up, this is the place to watch.

However, there are other numbers to keep an eye on too.

It is likely that the ANC or the DA might need some smaller parties with which to form coalitions. This means that their numbers could be important. In other words, it might be possible fairly early on to see who each of these parties would have to do business with, and who would thus be given some form of political power. This means parties like the ACDP, the UDM and the IFP are important to watch, because of the positions in which they could be put.

And the others…

Then there are other parties that are important because of what they say about the country.

So, if Black First Land First wins 10 seats and wins 3% of the vote, that would be a huge surprise. It would show that there is an appetite for the kind of politics that it espouses. This would be surprising compared to the current image of the party, which generally appears to be that of a man who was using Gupta money to fund a vanity project of some kind.

The same might be true for the African Transformation Movement in which Mzwanele Manyi plays a starring role. The party has had to strongly deny claims made on affidavit that former President Jacob Zuma and ANC Secretary General Ace Magashule played a role in its formation. If it makes any headway among voters, that would be a sign that something is shifting in some votes within the country.

The vast majority of smaller parties are likely to simply go to the wall. So anything like one seat for the Capitalist Party of SA, or the Socialist Revolutionary Workers’ Party (if they do win a seat each, surely a higher power will ensure they have to sit next to each in the National Assembly), would be a surprise.

So too would any support whatsoever for the African Congress Movement of Hlaudi Motsoeneng.

It will happen fast:

All of this may sound quite complicated. But it will happen fast. The IEC is hoping to proclaim the election as early as Saturday afternoon. It is likely that by Friday lunchtime you will have the numbers that are quite close to the final result.

As to the meaning and importance of these results… for that, you will have to wait and see. It still seems, barring any major shocks, that the main point of this election will be that it sets the playing field for what is to come. But it’s an important playing field that will have a huge impact on your future. DM