Gauteng may be the smallest province in the country, but it is going to host the biggest race of the 2019 Election.

The ANC in Gauteng says its latest research suggests the party is on track to achieve more than 53% in the province in the election on May 8. But previous election results show that the party has been on a downward spiral.

In 2014, the party’s support in Gauteng slipped to 53% and in the 2016 local government election, it dropped even further as the ANC lost two cities within the province to the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA).

In research ahead of the 2017 electoral conference of the party in the same showgrounds where the Rand Show is taking place, the party had dropped below 50% in Gauteng as corruption and state capture took their toll on historic support for the governing party.

Gauteng is home to the most substantial black middle-class in the country and it is a barometer of how well (or not) the party is doing in a social segment it has played a large part in nurturing. Many Gauteng ANC leaders were shocked at its plummeting support and it became the lead province to front a fight-back against the administration of former president Jacob Zuma who was the figurehead of the era of state capture.

Early research by the DA also showed that it could pip the ANC to the post.  This means that Gauteng, the smallest province, is going to host the biggest race of the 2019 Election. 

But ANC campaign manager for Gauteng, Lebogang Maile, said at the weekend that “recent research demonstrates we are on course to retain Gauteng and increase our majority”.

Maile was speaking at the launch of the ANC’s three-section pavilion festooned in its colours of green, black and gold at the Rand Show in Johannesburg as part of its second fight-back: this time to win back the support of its heartland province.

The Rand Show is a popular exhibition and playground that takes place for about a fortnight around the Easter holidays.  Adjacent to Soweto, it attracts large crowds from across the city and has become the final push to win the province by the three leading contender parties.

Both the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have hired pavilions there.

The ANC pavilion is both a historical visit and exposition of the party’s present achievements in the province. In the movie section, the party is exhibiting documentaries which showcase the ANC’s history as the party of liberation.

In the exhibition section, the party has put up exhibits of its successes as a provincial government.

The party is handing out balloons, flags, T-shirts and pamphlets at the pavilion and it has a kiddies play area which was popular when Daily Maverick visited.

“The pavilion demonstrates in numbers the services (it has provided) and how we have fought corruption,” said Maile who took a swipe at the DA when he said that the Gauteng Quality of Life Survey showed that the city of Ekurhuleni provided a better lifestyle than that of Johannesburg and Pretoria where the DA is in government. 

Mashile said the ANC was not entertaining the idea of coalitions as it believed that it will win a majority come the election on May 8.

The EFF set up two pavilions in different parts of the showgrounds and on Tuesday, the party’s commander-in-chief, Julius Malema, and party spokesperson Mbuyiseni Ndlozi visited both.

“We have put two stalls because we must be where people are so that people can ask questions about the EFF, people can join the EFF and people can also buy the merchandise of the EFF. Many people have been asking about where they can find the merchandise of the EFF. So we thought it was the most strategic thing to do,” Malema said.

And if red merchandise was sought, the first stall did not disappoint. Red jackets, red shirts, red pumps, red watches, red caps, red bags and of course, everyone’s favourite, the red berets were available for purchase. All carried the EFF logo while others were emblazoned with the party’s election slogan: “OUR LAND AND JOBS NOW”.

Malema’s EFF is seen as a potential kingmaker in this tightly contested province. In the 2016 local government election, the EFF lent its support to the Democratic Alliance which allowed that party, through a coalition of smaller parties, to take control of the City of Johannesburg and the City of Tshwane.

But the DA is not guaranteed the EFF’s support in this election.

During Tuesday’s walkabout, Malema indicated that he would consider coalition talks with the ANC after the election claiming that the “DA was biting the hand that feeds them” while the ANC had “not been hostile”. The DA has been campaigning on an anti-corruption ticket and has referenced the EFF’s alleged involvement in the VBS scandal in its poster campaign.

“The DA has issued an advert stating that we stole the money from VBS. They have issued a poster saying ‘stop the EFF’. After insulting us like that, they expect to come and call us to sit and share a government … I don’t think it will work. We are giving the DA power in Tshwane and Johannesburg. They are biting the hand that is feeding them and expect that hand to continue feeding them. It’s unscientific; it won’t work. The DA is a racist organisation that never appreciates the efforts of black people. I don’t imagine myself sitting with Mmusi Maimane,” said Malema.

While Malema spent much of his time visiting several stalls, he did not approach the ANC pavilion, where former President Thabo Mbeki was campaigning.

“These are historic elections, and that’s why they went to resurrect President Thabo Mbeki now because they can see that it is the most difficult one. If they had a way of going to Qunu to ask for intervention, they would be doing so. If Luka had the real power to resurrect people, these people would be begging Luka to go to Qunu to do a miracle. They are in trouble, they are in desperate need and we’re on top of them, we’re not playing,” said Malema, who was greeted with “Viva Malema Viva!” as he walked around the show.

“The ground is fertile. The ground is working. EFF people have to work. We must leave this thing of going to malls and giving people leaflets by robots. The real work is door to door. The people at malls and robots are pretentious because they will say the voting for you so you can leave them alone. Find them in their house, they will tell you the real story,” Malema said. DM