Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the world’s energy infrastructure is at risk after the explosions at the Nord Stream gas pipelines. He placed the blame on the US, Ukraine and Poland — accusations they reject — while suggesting Russia may have been behind the Baltic Sea blasts.

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to “officially” put forward a peace initiative at a meeting with Putin in Kazakhstan on Thursday, the Kremlin said. The government in Moscow also said it would like the United Arab Emirates to continue efforts to help mediate after Putin and his UAE counterpart, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, held talks on Tuesday.

Key developments

• Putin says all infrastructure at risk after Nord Stream hit 
• Russia sends more fuel to army in Ukraine amid mobilisation
• Oil slumps as key inflation metric sparks fresh slowdown fears
• Europe gas swings as Russian war risk counters higher stockpiles
• Poland says leak on Russian oil pipeline ‘probably’ an accident
• Kremlin, Musk deny report he spoke to Putin about Ukraine
• Europe’s ‘accident’-prone energy infrastructure causes concern

On the ground

Russian forces focused on stopping Ukrainian counteroffensive actions, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. It reported 13 Russian air strikes and more than 40 multiple rocket launcher assaults, as well as 14 attacks on critical infrastructure in the southern Odesa and Mykolaiv regions with Iranian drones. Twelve of these UAVs were destroyed.

Attacks by Russian forces killed 14 civilians in Ukraine on 11 October, while 34 people were wounded, according to the deputy head of the presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko. Ukraine’s air force said it shot down at least four Russian helicopters in the south early on Wednesday.

Russia running low on precision-guided munitions, says official  

Russia has apparently depleted a significant portion of its precision-guided munitions — Moscow is increasingly using old Soviet munitions with indiscriminate precision on the battlefield, a senior Nato official said.

Such munitions have wider targeting margins, making it more likely they’ll cause civilian casualties, the official said, adding that Russia used a combination of both modern and older munitions in its latest round of strikes. The official also said Russia’s new military commander, General Sergey Surovikin, will have to contend with an increasingly factional ministry of defence that’s poorly resourced to reach the Kremlin’s strategic objectives.

Erdoğan likely to propose Ukraine mediation plan, says Kremlin

“The Turks are offering their mediation,” state news service Tass reported Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, as saying. “If any negotiations or contacts take place, then they’ll likely be on their territory, in Istanbul or Ankara.”

Turkey, along with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, has been involved in mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine that led to a major prisoner exchange last month. The three countries have refused to adopt Western sanctions on Russia and have maintained ties with both sides during the war.

Turn down the heat, prime minister tells Ukrainians

Households should prepare for indoor temperatures to fall to 16°C  after the government switches central heating on, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said during a government meeting in Kyiv.

“This is a necessity — and our contribution to victory,” Shmyhal said, without specifying whether heating would go on in mid-October, as it did in previous years.

Ukraine taps iconic French tune in plea for heavy weapons 

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry tapped French pop culture in a plea for more heavy weapons from President Emmanuel Macron’s government. In a video posted to Twitter, the ministry interspersed images of roses, chocolates and a romantic backdrop of Paris with footage of long-range artillery fire. Serge Gainsbourg and Jane Birkin’s sultry 1967 hit, “Je t’aime… moi non plus,” played in the background.

“Romantic gestures take many forms, but if you really want to win our hearts, nothing beats 155 millimetre, highly mobile self-propelled artillery,” the clip said, a reference to Macron’s pledge to send six more Caesar howitzers among other heavy weaponry. “Merci beaucoup France, please send more.”

Russia’s budget surplus shrinks as Ukraine war drags on

Russia’s budget surplus more than halved in September, as revenue failed to keep up with increases in spending during an increasingly costly and protracted war in Ukraine.

The fiscal surplus shrank to 55 billion roubles ($850-million) in the first nine months, from 137 billion reported in the year through August, according to preliminary data reported by the Finance Ministry on Wednesday.

Putin says all infrastructure at risk after Nord Stream hit

The Russian leader said any energy infrastructure in the world is at risk after the explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines.

The attacks were an act of terror that set “the most dangerous precedent”, Putin told a Moscow energy forum on Wednesday. “It shows that any critically important object of transport, energy or utilities infrastructure is under threat” irrespective of where it is located or by whom it is managed, he said.

Putin blamed the sabotage on the US, Ukraine and Poland, calling them “beneficiaries” of the blasts that caused major gas leaks in the Baltic Sea. The US and its allies have rejected those allegations and suggest Russia may have been behind the underwater blasts.

Nato members to back German anti-missile system proposal

At least 13 alliance members are poised to sign a letter of intent backing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s proposal for a joint European anti-missile shield, Der Spiegel reported. The plan, announced by the German leader in a speech in Prague in August, may attract more members as Nato defence chiefs meet in Brussels.

The system, which would likely use Israel’s Arrow 3 air-defence system, would significantly broaden the region’s protection against potential missile attacks, Der Spiegel said. The German military presently relies on US Patriot missiles.

Dutch minister calls for increased defence output

Securing the defence industry’s sustained production will remain a high priority over the coming years as stocks are depleted by the war in Ukraine, Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren said. “We have to deliver now, but we also have to produce more,” she told reporters in Brussels.

The Dutch government will send €15-million worth of additional anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. “We need to show Putin that if he attacks more, the only result will be that we’ll help even more,” Ollongren said.

Kremlin wants UAE to continue mediation efforts on Ukraine

Moscow said it would like the UAE to continue its efforts to help mediate the conflict with Ukraine, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov hailing what he called the “important role” played by the Gulf state in negotiating prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine.

The Russian and UAE leaders discussed the tensions at length in talks Tuesday in St Petersburg, he said, with the Emirati leader conveying Kyiv’s positions on key issues. They also discussed the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, where fighting has raised fears of a possible accident.

Nato chief urges more air defence for Ukraine

Stoltenberg urged alliance members to scale up supplies of air defence systems to Ukraine in the wake of what he called “horrific, indiscriminate attacks against Ukrainian cities”, civilians and energy facilities. The Nato chief, speaking to reporters at the start of a two-day meeting of defence ministers in Brussels, said more air defence will be the top priority in discussions on how to boost support for Ukraine.

The strikes show “the urgent need for more air defence for Ukraine”, he said. “Allies have provided air defence but we need even more. We need different types of air defence, short-range, long-range, air defence systems to take ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, different systems for different tasks.”

Poland says pipeline leak probably an accident 

Polish authorities are assuming a leak in a pipeline bringing Russian oil to Europe is probably an accident. Investigations continue, but Mateusz Berger, Poland’s top official in charge of strategic energy infrastructure, said he had no reason to think it was an act of sabotage.

“I prefer to assume it was probably an accident,” Berger said. “It’s not the first case of leakage and it surely can’t be compared to the explosion on Nord Stream.”

More Himars systems arrive in Ukraine

Four more Himars long-range artillery systems supplied by the US have arrived in Ukraine, Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Twitter. “There will be more,” he said.

The US pledged in the summer to provide additional Himars, taking the total in use by Ukraine to 16. Ukraine has credited the highly prized systems with helping its military counteroffensive in the east and south of the country by striking deep behind Russian lines to target supply routes and ammunition stores.

Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses power again

The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest, lost external power for the second time in five days, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Mariano Grossi, said in a Twitter post.

Vladimir Rogov, the head of the local occupation authorities, said on his Telegram channel that the power supply at the plant had been restored, with diesel generators having been required for less than an hour. Grossi had met Putin, whose forces captured the plant during the first week of the war and have been there since, on Tuesday in St Petersburg to discuss its safety.

Putin ‘a long way off’ nuclear strike, says UK spy chief 

Putin is a “long way off” using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and the intelligence agencies would have a good chance of “spotting” an attack before it happened, the head of Britain’s spy agency GCHQ said.

In comments made in London on Tuesday, reported in The Times of London, Jeremy Fleming played down the likelihood of an imminent attack, saying Russia was running short of weapons, allies and troops to sustain the war in Ukraine.

Kyiv electricity provider warns of rolling blackouts 

DTEK Kyiv Grid, the Ukrainian capital’s sole electricity provider, said it would have to implement rolling blackouts on Wednesday because of shortages. Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said in an interview with CNN that Russia had damaged 30% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with two days of missile attacks.

Russia detains eight people over Crimea bridge blast 

Russia’s main domestic intelligence agency detained five Russian citizens as well as three others from Ukraine and Armenia as part of an investigation into the explosion on a bridge linking Russia and Crimea, Interfax reported. The Federal Security Service, or FSB, said the blast was organised by Ukrainian military intelligence. Ukraine hasn’t claimed responsibility for the incident.

Putin blamed Ukrainian secret services for staging the 8 October attack, which badly damaged the 19km bridge across the Kerch Strait. Russia retaliated with a barrage of missiles fired at Ukrainian cities that knocked out power supplies and other infrastructure. DM