The attacks by Julius Malema and the EFF, both on Twitter and outside the commission this week, are possibly unprecedented in our politics. Malema referred to Gordhan as a “dog”.

“Our attack on Pravin is an attack on white monopoly capital because Pravin is a dog of white monopoly capital,” he claimed. He then repeatedly referred to the evidence leader of the commission, Advocate Paul Pretorius, as a “bastard”. Malema followed that up with a tweet including a picture of Gordhan’s daughter, Anusha Gordhan, and claiming that she had benefited from certain government tenders.

While there have been various suggestions in the past that corruption in our politics can often involve the family members of leaders (Duduzane Zuma etc), there appears to be virtually no evidence suggesting any link to corruption here. While other members of the EFF have tweeted documents claiming to show that companies Anusha Gordhan was involved in did receive government contracts, no evidence appears to have been presented which could show this was done corruptly, or that government did not receive proper value for money for the services that were rendered. Gordhan himself presented what appeared to be a robust defence of his daughter, explaining how, while she was involved in transactions, “she did not benefit financially in any way”.

All of this may well raise more questions about why exactly the EFF is attacking Gordhan in such a personal way. This, combined with Malema’s attacks on journalists on Tuesday, may also lead to suggestions that the EFF has something to fear from those in the media reporting on the real situation. More reports on Tuesday, suggesting that Malema and other EFF leaders did benefit from the VBS scandal, may well be at the root of this. At the same time, Malema’s language was so strong and so strident that one may well question his real motive for claiming that physical violence should not be used against journalists. It could reasonably be interpreted as more of a threat than an instruction to his followers.

So what will the reaction of the ANC be? The party’s head of Presidency, Zizi Kodwa, has confirmed that the press conference will see the party issue its support of Gordhan “100%”. He also says that the point of the conference is to respond “to the attacks on Pravin and the attacks on the commission”.

Kodwa says: “If the EFF has any credibly information, which it is very clear they don’t have, they should testify in the commission… unless you believe in grandstanding, just to insult people and assassinate their credibility.”

It will also be of importance who will show up at the conference. With a divided leadership, the ANC’s message could be sent in many ways.

Just an hour earlier, the ANC’s caucus in Parliament will also be having a press conference. There, the party’s Chief Whip Jackson Mthembu is likely to use the opportunity to strongly defend Gordhan. He has sent out a series of tweets defending the minister, and attacking the EFF for their comments.

On one level, the ANC, no matter which faction leaders may come from, has no choice but to defend Gordhan. He is a long-time member of the party, and is being attacked by the leader of another party. Even if some of the speculation about Malema planning to go back to the ANC before or after the elections is true, it would still be incredibly bad politically to leave Gordhan to face the EFF’s vicious attacks alone. Malema may have actually overplayed his hand by attacking Gordhan, forcing the entire ANC to defend him.

At the same time, the Zondo Commission itself was actually demanded by the ANC even before Zuma left the leadership. Last year, before Nasrec, the former national executive committee wanted the commission to be instituted, and Zuma was put under pressure to formally institute the commission. For the ANC to backtrack now would be a huge embarrassment.

This could become even more significant, considering that it is surely the case that not everyone in the ANC will be pleased at the way the commission is going. ANC Secretary-General Ace Magashule, for example, could be implicated in State Capture claims of his own, considering the role his sons were reported to have played with the Guptas, the Estina Dairy scandal and many more.

However, this can also put the party in a very complex position later. Luthuli House has taken great pains to claim that the “ANC is not on trial” at the commission in its own right. This has been a difficult argument to sustain, because it is only ANC members and leaders who have so far been implicated (and other ANC members and leaders who have testified about State Capture). Already the party has had to say it will send a delegation to give testimony under oath at the commission after other testimony about the role it played with regard to banks and the Guptas. Having to come out now and support the commission so publicly may make it harder to disagree later with any findings that are made against the ANC, or its record of governing the country, right in time for the 2019 elections.

Then there is a much bigger question about all of this. Is the EFF speaking from a position of strength, in that it really does believe it has evidence of wrongdoing against Gordhan (whom Malema called on the nation to defend in October 2016)?

Or, is the party speaking from a position of weakness, as the accusations of corruption mount up?

In the end, it is voters who will have to decide. Malema appears to be pushing hard to get his base to support him. But that may make it harder to actually get more support in the 2019 polls.

For the meantime, the Zondo Commission is likely to press on. And is likely to hear more evidence that will be damaging for the ANC, and some of those in it. With results that are still difficult to predict. But you can bet your last rand they will be painful. DM