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While I have written about the ample maize harvest that South Africa is expecting this year, a record 17.3 million tonnes, much of it is still in the field. Farmers have, so far, only managed to harvest and deliver to commercial silos about 27% of this crop.
We have a rather later season than usual. Both the delayed start owing to excessive rains and the prolonged rainy season through May contributed to the slower-than-usual harvest. But the quality of the crop is generally good and better than what we saw last season.
Beyond the harvest progress, I have also been encouraged by the pace of exports we are seeing this year. In the week of 19 June 2026, South Africa exported about 113,775 tonnes of maize. This builds on other robust exports in the previous weeks.
Major maize export markets
What also continues to be encouraging is the diversity of the markets for these exports. For example, in the week of 19 June, about 76% of exports went to Vietnam, 11% to South Korea and the remainder went mainly to African countries. The return and sustained momentum in exports to these Far East markets are the noteworthy developments.
In the previous year, these countries weren’t as present in South Africa’s maize exports. We saw South Africa primarily exporting maize to other African countries. In fact, Zimbabwe was the primary buyer of South African maize in the 2025–26 marketing year, which ended in April 2026, buying almost half of the 2 million tonnes exported.
The African countries remain a noteworthy buyer of South African maize, even in the 2026–27 marketing year, which started in May 2026, but are now being surpassed by the Far East markets, which are importing large volumes. About 72% of the 607,228 tonnes of maize that South Africa exported between the start of May 2026 and June 19 went to the Far East markets.
Quality of SA maize
The higher quality of South African maize and its affordability are among the major factors driving strong sales to the Far East. We don’t typically talk about this, but the fact that South African maize is sun-dried and has reasonably low moisture has been an issue that maize importers from Far Eastern countries often mention in various interactions. I interacted extensively with various maize buyers when I worked for Grain South Africa as an economist some years back.
They used to say that the quality of maize imports from other major producing countries is not at the same level as the quality of South African maize. This was not a rumour, as many crop quality reports concurred with this assertion.
I hope the momentum we are seeing now will continue throughout the season. South Africa does need to export as the country has ample supplies. The exports won’t present a risk to next year’s needs.
Remember, this new marketing year, the 2026–27 year (which corresponds with the 2025–26 production season), started with a reasonably large carryover stock from the previous season. Those stocks add to the large harvest in this new year. Therefore, some notable exports are necessary to balance the maize market, and prices must be competitive to support them.
In this new 2026–27 marketing year, South Africa’s maize export forecast is at 3 million tonnes, up 50% from the previous year.
Export forecast
This means that in the coming months we may continue to see more exports, and the Far East markets are among the regions key to ensuring that South Africa realises its export forecast.
Of course, going into next year, with the expected El Niño drought, there will naturally be stronger demand from countries in the southern African region as well.
The essential point is that South Africa’s maize harvest is under way, and the weather should support it over the coming weeks and months. We also continue to see more encouraging demand for maize across various markets than in the past. These exports are essential to ensuring the maize market is generally more balanced, and we don’t have excess glut that distorts prices for longer. DM