Maize prices could recover on stronger regional and global demand

When the South African maize industry began its 2025-26 marketing year in May last year, there was optimism that it would be a bumper harvest year with a large surplus for export markets.

Indeed, we ended the year with a large harvest of about 16.5 million tonnes, supported by the La Niña rains and decent plantings. Such an ample harvest clearly showed that the exports would be significant, as it far surpassed SA’s domestic maize needs of about 12.0 million tonnes.

In doubt about how much demand would be in the market, various grain analysts, including ourselves, placed SA’s maize export forecast for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ended recently in April 2026, at 2.4 million tonnes.

The size of these exports also meant large volumes would carry over into the following year as carryover stock. But as the year progressed, we encountered weaker-than-usual demand. By the time the 2025-26 marketing year ended in April, exports were only about 2.0 million tonnes, well below the industry’s conservative export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes set at the start of the season. The typical buyers of South African maize in the Far East markets, such as Vietnam, Taiwan, and South Korea, were just not as active in the market.

Rather, we saw strong demand for SA’s maize emanating from the southern Africa region. In fact, Zimbabwe was the major buyer of South African maize, accounting for 39% of SA’s 2.0 million tonnes of maize exports. This was about 780,770 tonnes, primarily driven by a lower domestic harvest and growing demand. The volume included both white and yellow maize.

The reason for lower demand in some of SA’s typical export markets, particularly those in the Far East, was, among other things, ample supplies of more affordable maize in the world market. This lessened the need for imports from as far as SA.

Record crop

We are now starting the 2026-27 maize marketing year in SA, which begins in May 2026. As with the previous season, the supplies are plentiful. SA’s 2025-26 maize production estimate is 16.8 million tonnes, up 1% from last season, and the largest harvest on record. For clarification, the 2025-26 production season corresponds with the 2026-27 marketing year. Therefore, this record crop of 16.8 million tonnes comes into this new marketing year and will run through to April 2027.

The large harvest is on the back of expanded planting area and expected high yields. About 9.1 million tonnes were white maize, with 7.7 million tonnes of yellow maize. Again, such a maize crop, combined with likely large carryover stocks from the current season, signals that SA will yet again remain a net exporter of maize in the 2026-27 marketing year. But this new year, the exports may not be as soft as the previous season.

We are approaching an El Niño weather event in the season ahead, which means that, aside from the season we are ending with a record harvest, supplies, at least in southern Africa, may not be as plentiful as in past seasons going into 2027. This means that, in addition to Zimbabwe being the only significant buyer of South African maize, we may see more buyers of maize in the region. It is also likely that, with a possible slight increase in global maize prices in the coming months, we may see a return of Far East maize buyers. When such demand gains momentum, SA will still be better placed to meet it.

So, while we have ended the 2025-26 marketing year with a slight downbeat mood from the start, when there was anticipation of strong exports, the new year may be different. The demand may be revived not only in the southern Africa region, but also among SA’s traditional maize buyers. Such a possibility would raise maize prices slightly from current low levels, where South African maize prices are down 20-30% from a year ago due to the large harvest and subdued demand.

We are early in the year, and the months ahead will provide more guidance about where we could end up, but we remain optimistic. DM