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The grand illusion of the 88% Senior Certificate pass rate and SA's literacy crisis - connect the dots

Without an urgent pivot toward Grade R-3 literacy and parental empowerment, the South African educational system remains a ‘certificate factory’ rather than a centre of human capital development.

Clive W Kronenberg
By Clive W Kronenberg
3 Feb 2026
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There is a systemic decoupling of educational certification from functional competence in South Africa (SA), specifically critiquing the 2025 National Senior Certificate (NSC) results.

Drawing on two decades of sociological and cultural research, I argue that the celebrated 88% pass rate of the 2025 NSC results masks a profound crisis in foundational literacy.

By integrating neurobiological perspectives on reading with a socio-historical analysis of the “parent factor” and the lingering “cognitive debt” of Bantu Education, I assert that without an urgent pivot toward Grade R–3 literacy and parental empowerment, the South African educational system remains a “certificate factory” rather than a centre of human capital development.

National delusion

In January 2026, the South African Department of Basic Education announced a national pass rate of 88% for the 2025 matriculation cohort. While this figure was met with state-sponsored celebration, it represents a continuation of what may be termed a “national delusion”. A burgeoning body of critique, most notably exemplified by the 2026 Mansi Report, identifies this figure as a statistical illusion facilitated by a 30% passing threshold and the inclusion of non-academic subjects in aggregate assessments.

I’m expanding this critique by identifying two silent drivers of systemic failure: the neurobiological requirements of early literacy, and the intergenerational impact of the home literacy environment (HLE).

Grade 4 Reading Wall

The actual state of South African education is most accurately mirrored not in Grade 12 exit rates, but in Grade 4 performance metrics. International longitudinal data consistently indicates that about 81% of South African nine-year-olds are unable to read for meaning in any language.

In pedagogical terms, Grade 4 represents a structural shift from “learning to read” to “reading to learn”. Students who lack decoding fluency and phonological awareness at this juncture encounter a “cognitive wall”. This results in the “Matthew Effect”, a phenomenon where early linguistic disadvantages compound over time, leading to a cumulative deficit that renders the student functionally illiterate despite subsequent years of formal schooling.

Read more: It’s time for outrage about the quality of learning in SA’s schools

No pre-wiring for literacy

The human brain is not evolutionarily pre-wired for literacy; rather, it must undergo a radical rewiring process – neuroplasticity in action – to recycle visual and language regions for the recognition of graphemes and phonemes. Mastery of reading serves as the "architectural foundation" for the brain’s control center: executive function.

Executive function encompasses the ability to plan, focus and solve complex problems. When a child fails to master reading during the critical window of early childhood, the brain misses a vital developmental spurt.

Consequently, many holders of the NSC find themselves unemployable because their neural “operating systems” were never equipped with the mental muscles required for the high-level synthesis demanded by science, mathematics, and leadership roles.

The parent factor

A critical variable often omitted from the national discourse is the “parent factor”. While research confirms that parental involvement is the primary predictor of academic success, the South African context is complicated by the legacy of Bantu Education. This system was designed to systematically limit the literacy of the majority, resulting in a contemporary “cognitive debt”.

Many parents are not neglectful but survivors of a system that denied them quality education. This functional illiteracy within the home environment creates a silent crisis. We cannot expect the state to resolve a developmental delay that originates at the “kitchen table”. Intervention must therefore focus on empowering parents as “neuro-architectors”, providing them with the tools to foster a culture of literacy despite their own educational backgrounds.

Read more: Why a small dip in Eastern Cape matric results may signal a bigger problem

Mother Tongue-Based Bilingual Education

Recent policy shifts under Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube have emphasised Mother Tongue-Based Bilingual Education (MTBBE). While pedagogically sound in theory and constitutionally aligned, this focus arguably mistakes the symptom for the disease. Data suggesting children learn faster in their home language is irrelevant if the home environment lacks the resources to prepare the child for formal literacy.

With 43% of South African families lacking access to books, the choice of the medium of instruction cannot compensate for the absence of shared reading practices from the cradle. The classroom cannot reverse six years of profound developmental delay in a single foundation phase.

Towards a new national narrative

The 2025 matric results serve as a clarion call for a shift from “pass rates” to “competency”. This requires a two-pronged strategy:

  1. Foundational Urgency: Treating Grade R through Grade 3 with the same systemic priority as the matriculation year.
  2. Parental Agency: Implementing national programs that bridge the gap for parents, fostering HLE regardless of socioeconomic status.

Until the “reading circuit” is prioritised as a neurodevelopmental imperative, the South African dream of economic mobility will remain hindered by the rusted copper wires of a broken foundation. DM

Clive W Kronenberg is formerly a Senior Research Associate, Office of the Sarchi Chair: Higher Education, Faculty of Education, University of Johannesburg. The author can provide reference sources on request. The author also acknowledges the use of Gemini 3.0 Pro for data verification, grammar correction and syntax refinement, and the Hume AI TS model for podcast audio conceptualisation.

References

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