ANC looks set to become a staffrider on the money train riding back to 1994

There are ominous signs that South Africa is destined to return to the era of governance and control by the people who governed the country before 1994. In this scenario, the leadership of the black majority of the country would be relegated to being a mere staffrider — ukungenisa. There are at least three main postulates.

One is that the ANC has lost credibility and trust with the electorate. That has been discussed and written about repeatedly.

Another is that by 2012 the ANC began to seriously disappoint the countries and institutions that had historically funded the movement.

A third is that the minority in South Africa, politically represented by an axis of people like Helen Zille and Pieter Groenewald, has been caught up in the rising tide of European ethno-nationalism, pari passu with the rise of white pride and opposition to affirmative action, and attempts to “reset” the world order through money/finance, political economy, militarisation and military force.

While this is making Europe happy, those communities that remain what the late British-born economist Angus Maddison described as “Europe’s outgrowth” are wedded to retaining the power and privilege of the Occident, in its worst expression. All of these (latter positions) matter when considering the gathering momentum of the Zille Axis. They have growing support among the Patriotic Alliance (PA), ActionSA, the Inkatha Freedom Party and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP).

Follow the money, and you will see the power

In the 1983 film Scarface, the ruthless materialism of the gangster Tony Montana is summed up in his statement, “You gotta make the money first. Then when you get the money, you get the power.” He goes on to make disparaging remarks about women, a lot like Donald Trump’s statement that when you are a celebrity (with power), you can grab women by the crotch. There is a pattern, here, of money, power and abuse of women…

From discussions over the past several months, I have a clear sense that money may flow away from the ANC to the Zille Axis. The prime objective of the money train is to secure “free market” policies, to oppose affirmative action (“diversity, equity and inclusion”), and to reorient South Africa’s foreign policies, as part of rolling back “the influence of China” and opposing BRICS.

Having followed the big picture and the details closely (I write about and engage with these things elsewhere), I have not come across actual evidence or statements that China wants to send its military to any specific country. You can assert that China wants to invade Taiwan (or Greenland, for that matter), but you would have to provide evidence, otherwise it’s just repeating Trump’s talking points in vacuous encomia.

Setting all that aside, the money will come, and as that money travels, its power grows, and that power will attract the best and the worst of political performers and could relegate the ANC and whatever remains of “the black vote” to staff-riding — ukungenisa.

The money train is driven to a large extent by white nationalism, imaginings and panic of “replacement theory” (see here and here). The money train starts in the US and is heavily funded by the world’s wealthiest man, who is unabashedly sympathetic to white ethno-nationalism. See his “100%” endorsement of white nationalist statements in a post on X at 11.47am on 7 January 2026.

Also, the man who wants to believe he is most powerful (Trump) told The New York Times (on 11 January) that the civil rights movement, which broke away from the state-sponsored system of Jim Crow laws in the US, resulted in “reverse discrimination” against white people.

It all comes together tidily with the appointment of Trump’s new ambassador to South Africa, Leo Brent Bozell III, who will bring in the foreign policy reorientation, starting with attempts to reverse South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. A return, then, to pre-1994 domestic social arrangements and back towards the rather toxic “secretive … military and nuclear cooperation with Taiwan” and with Israel are the main “destinations” of the money train on which the ANC, as the notional representative of black South Africans, may end up becoming a staffrider.

The politics of opportunity

What, then, can be done to stop the return to the status quo ex ante? In short, it seems impossible. If it has not already occurred, the Zille Axis funded by the money train has attracted or will probably attract people and parties like Gayton McKenzie, a convicted criminal and xenophobe, (Trump, too is a convicted criminal and, well, dislikes foreigners), and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which has a deep history of drawing on right-wing, conservative and “liberal” European support — especially from German institutions.

During South Africa’s darkest days, Inkatha relied on these same sources of money for its war chest. Today, this largesse continues to flow, and now also goes to the ACDP and ActionSA. As for McKenzie, it’s really difficult to see past the idea of the greedy huckster that Frantz Fanon identified in The Wretched of the Earth, as a character “too glad to accept the dividends that the former colonial power hands out to it. This get-rich-quick middle class shows itself incapable of great ideas or of inventiveness.”

As a staffrider, the ANC and “the black vote,” such as it is, would be useful to the Zille Axis. More useful would be black politicians who see great opportunity for pecuniary gain and whatever prestige may be conjured from Occidentalism and its attendant chests of money. These sources of funding have in common opposition to affirmative action (“diversity, equity and inclusion”), and would have beneficiaries, like the Democratic Alliance (DA), the Freedom Front Plus (FF+), IFP, PA, ActionSA and ACDP, to outsource South Africa’s foreign policy-making.

The Rise Mzansi leader, Songezo Zibi, has made some kind of statement opposing Elon Musk’s influence (see his post on X on 11 January), but Tony Montana reminded us that if you want power, you need money first. So, there is always room on the money train.

Apart from the intellectual/ideological infrastructure, there are, of course, black people who would align themselves with big money and power, or who would, at least, say the right thing, but would want to be on the money train — for the money and the symbolism. They also see the writing on the wall. There is no clear future for the ANC as the government, with barely visible images of an alliance among the historically black (former liberation) movements.

A likely alliance of the ANC (40.1%), MK (14.8%), the EFF (9.52%), Azapo (1.2%) and the PAC (.23%) (collectively gained about 65% of the national votes in 2024) may carry voices, but power, Tony Montana reminded us, comes from money.

The Zille Axis will probably get a lot of money. In the last poll, the DA got around 21.8% of the vote, the IFP 3.85%, the PA 2.06%, the FF+ 1.36%, ActionSA 1.2% and the ACDP .06%. Rise Mzansi seems to be independent, but given the business, corporate and banking career of Zibi (.42% in the 2024 election), it’s difficult to see a break.

All of the above considered, unless something dramatic happens, the ANC may be approaching the end of its political primacy. You may agree with some of its politics, or you may disagree, but it’s difficult to imagine that the money train will stop for the ANC — at least not for as long as it remains committed to the constitutional obligation to roll back injustices of the past (through affirmative action, among other), and sustain solidarity and association with countries sanctioned or unapproved by the US. The best it could hope for, as things stand, is to enjoy whatever thrills may be had from staff-riding.

In sum, South Africa faces a return to apartheid-era domestic social arrangements, and back towards the foreign relations of the past, most notably those military strategic alliances with states approved by Washington then and now. When viewed together, the past three decades will be merely a pause, or a type of caesura of long-run European political economic control of the country. DM

Ismail Lagardien is a writer, columnist and political economist with extensive exposure and experience in global political economic affairs. He was educated at the London School of Economics and holds a PhD in International Political Economy.