The Nigerian presidential election on 25 February 2023 offers two important lessons for those of us in South Africa seeking change when we head to the polls in 2024.

First, if we don’t register, turn out to vote and encourage our friends and families to register and turn out on election day, change will not happen. The status quo will prevail. We will (literally) remain in the dark.

Change will not happen by opting out of the democratic processes. For South Africa to rise, we need as many eligible voters as possible participating in democratic elections.

Second, the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) must be beyond reproach in how it conducts elections. Election oversight becomes very important as those that stand to lose from the freely expressed will of the people might try dirty and underhanded tricks.

Bola Tinubu was announced the president-elect by the Nigerian Independent National Electoral Commission last Wednesday, 1 March 2023.

Read in Daily Maverick: “Bola Tinubu wins tightest Nigerian presidential election in decades”

The All-Progressives Congress (APC) candidate won 36.61% of the vote, defeating his chief rivals, Atiku Abubakar of the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), who obtained 29.07% and 25.40% respectively. The APC is the party of the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, who has served two successive terms.

Although 93,469,008 Nigerians registered to vote, only 24,025,940 were reported to have voted – a turnout of 26.71%, 8.04% lower than the already low-turnout election of 2019 when Buhari was elected for a second term.

The results are going to be challenged in court by opposition parties and candidates. Numerous irregularities were reported on election day and during the counting process, ranging from late opening of polling stations to presiding officers allegedly not uploading results on the electronic portal designed for that purpose.

Not enough for change

These cases will be vigorously fought and a lot of details of what happened at the polls are still to emerge. What will not change, though, is that whether it is 26% or 36% or even 40%, the turnout was too low for change to be guaranteed.

Nigerians have long been dissatisfied with the state of the country. Insecurity, corruption, the poor state of the economy and rising cost of living have made life very difficult for them, many of whom are struggling to put food on the table. The recent cash shortage brought on by an ill-judged government decision to refresh the currency only made day-to-day life worse in the days leading up to the election.

On social media and on the ground, Nigerians have been seeking change and renewal. The candidacy of Peter Obi appeared to offer that. Typically, elections in Nigeria have been a two-horse affair between the candidates of the APC and PDP.

Read in Daily Maverick: “Nigeria’s Peter Obi wins in Lagos state in presidential election”

This year, Obi (a former PDP vice-presidential candidate) upset the apple cart and ran an effective and dynamic third-party campaign which many pollsters predicted would see him at least force a run-off and potentially win the presidency.

Successful “change” elections are founded on high voter turnout. Current Zambian president, Hakainde Hichilema, unseated Edgar Lungu in the Zambian election of August 2021 by successfully navigating voter suppression and mobilising young Zambians desiring change to turn out in numbers.

Voter turnout in Zambia was 70.61%, a staggering 14 percentage points higher than in the previous election in 2016. The result: a comprehensive win for Hichilema who won 59.02% of the vote to Lungu’s 38.71%.

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In South Africa, we can see a similar trend in competitive municipal by-elections. Where there is high voter mobilisation and turnout, incumbent parties (usually the ANC) struggle to hold on to their position. Where there is a low turnout, they sail through a by-election and tend to win relatively comprehensively. Two recent examples are worth reviewing.

On 1 December 2022, the IFP won Ward 5 off the ANC (the incumbent since the 2021 local government election) in Mthonjaneni (King Cetshwayo Municipality). The significant factor was the turnout of 55%, which is unusually high for a ward by-election and one point higher than the turnout in the municipal election.

On 27 October 2022, the ANC held on to Ward 7 (Mthatha Central) in King Sabata Dalindyebo Municipality increasing its share of the vote from 57% in 2021 to 74%. The turnout? 16%, 34 points lower than the 50% in 2021. In one voting district – Mthatha City Hall (where dissatisfaction with the ANC is reportedly high) – the turnout was a staggeringly low 3%.

Obviously, turnout alone is not sufficient for a challenger candidate or party to win an election. You need a compelling message and leadership backed up by a plan that people trust you to implement. You need to have the infrastructure to communicate that message and plan.

Increasingly, you need to be able to protect your vote on election day and prove that you have the votes that were cast for you. What you cannot avoid, though, is mobilising people seeking change to turn out and vote.

A big threat facing South Africa in 2024 is that voters will not turn out in the volume required to unseat the ANC and create a better South Africa for the millions who are yet to taste the fruit of democracy.

The turnout in recent big elections has been steadily declining. In 2019, it dropped more than seven percentage points to 66.05%. In the municipal elections of 2021, it dropped 12 points to 45.87%.

We simply cannot afford to risk a low turnout of below 70% in next year’s election. If we are serious about change, we must mobilise our friends and family to register and turn out to vote.

It is encouraging to see that the IEC has begun voter registration campaigns, but it needs the support of every organisation and individual to amplify the message.

If you are serious about change, get on the voters’ roll. South Africa will rise when we turn out and vote. Our immediate future depends on it. DM

Makashule Gana is an Organiser for Rise Mzansi.